Eur/usd - page 457
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Moscovici says EU finance ministers to confirm EC sanctions on Spain/Portugal
Moscovici sounds like it's a done deal
I don't care how many Euro 2016 matches Portugal wins, the people are going to be pissed if they have to pay fines for having deficits.
Meanwhile, Dombrovskis is saying the fine proposal will take into account the situation and may be cut to zero. In almost the same breath, Moscovici said there is no need to speculate about fines and that the European Commission will stick to the rules.
source
The euro depreciated against the dollar on Thursday. The session started at 1.1099 and ended 38 pips lower. The intraday high was marked at 1.1106 and low at 1.1052. In the short term the outlook is positive, but for significant upward movement is needed breakthrough of 1.1100.
Yesterday EURUSD fell with a narrow range and closed near the low of the day, in addition managed to close within the previous day range, which suggests being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.
Today we will have the nonfarm payrolls data and market is expecting the creation of 175K new jobs in June but this number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the EURUSD.
The pair continues to trade below all 3 moving averages the 10, 50 and 200 that should act as dynamic resistances.
The key levels to watch are: The 50-day moving average at 1.1222 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1097, the 10-day moving average at 1.1096 (resistance), the 200-day moving average at 1.1095 (resistance) and Fridays low at 1.0912 (support).
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IMF downgrades growth in Eurozone due to Brexit
IMF of the Brexit fallout in the Eurozone
EU court expected to limit investor losses amid Italy bank talks
The top EU court is likely to say later this month that the European Commission cannot use state aid rules to impose losses on private investors in a bank bailout, a ruling that would strengthen Italy and other countries in talks with Brussels.
The case was brought to the European Court of Justice by disgruntled investors who saw their savings wiped out by a banking rescue in Slovenia in 2013.
EU rules, adopted after the 2007-08 global financial crisis, impose losses on private investors, the so-called bail-in, before banks can be rescued with taxpayers' money. The objective is to reduce irresponsible risk-taking by lenders.
Italy is negotiating with the Commission a softer interpretation of the rules to allow public a contribution to the recapitalization of its weakest banks, including Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS) (MI:BMPS), without imposing politically sensitive losses on private investors.
The EU top court's July 19 ruling will be watched closely in Portugal where the government needs to recapitalize the country's largest lender, state-owned Caixa Geral de Depositos.
A key piece of legislation governing bank rescues in Europe, the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), has a clause allowing states in serious economic trouble to pump public money to lenders which are shown to have capital shortfalls by banking stress tests.
Thanks to this clause, states can avoid the strict bail-in requirements of the BRRD, which may force losses even on bank deposits above 100,000 euros.
The results of the latest European test will be announced on July 29, very likely showing shortfalls in BMPS and possibly other banks.
But EU countries remain bound by EU state aid rules which foresee "burden sharing" during bailouts, imposing losses on holders of subordinated debt and hybrid capital, categories that include thousands of Italian small savers.
The court will not directly address BRRD directive. Instead its ruling will focus on the limits of the anti-trust powers of the Commission in applying state aid rules during a bank rescue, and whether its provisions are binding on EU member states.
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