Eur/usd - page 321
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Yesterday the EURUSD pair rose on a wide range day and closed in the green near the high of the day, shy below the 10-day moving average. The currency did not managed to close above the 10-day moving average so until it closes above we may expect some consolidation but a breakdown of previous day low at 1.1207 could accelerate the bearish trend.
Tomorrow is the ECB press conference and the interest rate decision The market will have a high volatility.
Tomorrow is the ECB press conference and the interest rate decision The market will have a high volatility.
Indeed, EUR/USD is back to testing the support at 1.1240 but I doubt anything will come of it before the ECB rating decision tomorrow.
EUR/USD ends three-day winning streak, ahead of critical ECB meeting
EUR/USD fell sharply on Wednesday halting a three-day winning streak, ahead of a critical meeting of European monetary policy officials on Thursday that could provide signals on the long-term direction of inflation throughout the zone.
The currency pair wavered between a low of 1.1217 and a high of 1.1320 on Wednesday before settling at 1.226, down 0.0090 or 0.80% on the session. EUR/USD has fluctuated wildly in recent sessions, trading in between a range of 1.10 and 1.17 since August 17. Over the last month of trading, the euro is up by nearly 2.25% against the dollar.
EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.1044, the low from Aug. 10 and was met with resistance at 1.713, the high from Aug. 24.
A number of currency traders appeared reluctant to make any major moves during Wednesday's session ahead of a meeting of the European Central Bank's Governing Council on Thursday afternoon. Investors could be looking from signals from ECB head Mario Draghi on the viability of the bank's €60 billion a month quantitative easing program, which was launched in March. Previously, the ECB was on course to extend the bond-buying program through September, 2016 before a wave of economic shocks in China and soft commodity prices rattled global markets in recent weeks.
In August, inflation in the euro zone inched up by only 0.2% on a yearly basis, far below the ECB's targeted goal of 2%. During its last long-term estimate in June, the ECB forecasted inflation to reach 1.8% in 2017. If the ECB signals that it could continue the bond-buying initiative beyond next September, it might provide indications that it expects inflation to remain lower over the next several years.
In the U.S., analysts are bracing for a relatively weak U.S. jobs report for the month of August after forecasts from the ADP Research Institute fell sharply below consensus estimates on Wednesday. In its National Employment Report, ADP estimated that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 190,000 in August, significantly under estimates of a 210,000 gain.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August jobs report on Friday morning. In July, U.S. private payrolls increased by 215,000 as the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.3%. A soft reading on Friday could convince the Federal Reserve to delay a potential interest rate hike beyond September.
Meanwhile, former ECB head Jean Claude-Trichet defended the role of central banks throughout the world in soothing global markets. Speaking in an exclusive interview with CNBC, Trichet described major central banks such as the ECB and the Federal Reserve as "anchors of stability," in helping stave off recessionary headwinds.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, surged more than 0.5% to an intraday high of 95.97, before closing at 95.92 . The index is still down by more than 1.5% over the last month.
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The euro depreciated against the dollar on Wednesday. Upward momentum was interrupted, and the break of resistance at 1.1329 was postponed. If negative move continues in the future, the couple will most likely overcome the support at 1.1105 and will test the level of 1.1016. The session started at a price of 1.1312 as the bear trend prevailed throughout. Bottom of the day was hit at 1.1216 shortly before the end of trading. The session closed at a rate of 1.1225.
August 2015 Eurozone Markit services PMI final 54.4 vs 54.3 exp
August 2015 Eurozone Markit services PMI data report 3 September 2015
Every tick counts and Europe is adding them up. There's certainly signs that slowly the European economy is finding its feet once again. There's still a couple of patients on the sick bed though ;-)
Yesterday the EURUSD pair fell on a narrow range day, creating an inside day and closed well in the red near the low of the day. The currency failed once again to close above the 10-day moving average but all eyes now turn to the ECB Interest rate decision and monetary policy statement and press conference that should stay unchanged.
ECB 'Inflation Guardians' Keep Hands Off Rates, Presser Ahead
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates intact at their record lows on Thursday for the ninth straight rate-setting meeting, in what turned out to be a low impact decision as the move had been widely expected.
Europe's benchmark lending rate remains at a record low of 0.05%, while its deposit rate will stay at -0.20%, effectively charging lenders for holding their deposits with the central bank.
Meanwhile, the marginal lending facility rate (which shows the rate for overnight credit to banks from the Eurosystem) remained at 0.30%.
All three rates were last trimmed in September, and since then, several of the bank's top policymakers have suggested that they won't go lower, as it would have no significant effect on the economy.
Presser ahead
With the decision being a non-mover, attention will now focus on the press conference, with markets now readying for bank President Mario Draghi to serve them his fresh comments on the economy and monetary policy.
The bank will reveal also its fresh quarterly inflation and GDP projections, with analysts betting on downward revisions in both indicators.
The Q&A session will likely be dominated by the recent China-induced global market storm and traders will nervously trace every hint that might point to a QE expansion. Comments on the current euro exchange rate will be also closely watched.
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ECB kept the interest rate as it is and increased the issue share limit from 25% to 33%, EUR USD reacted to the move of the ECB and fell to reach 1.090 which is a strong support line and rebounded from there. still tomorrow there is the NFP.
EUR/USD: Euro Stabilizes Above $1.11, Waiting for NFP
The shared European currency remained a little higher ahead of the European open on Friday. Investors expect a quiet session, with the focus firmly on US non-farm payrolls later today.
The euro fell in the previous session mostly after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi delivered a dovish statement in the post-meeting press conference, emphasizing that the ECB maintained "its willingness and ability to act" and that the ECB’s QE "provides sufficient flexibility in terms of adjusting the size, composition and duration of the program".
Moreover, the euro's recent support as a new safe-haven currency is slowly evaporating as Chinese markets are currently closed for a holiday.
The euro fell from above $1.1230 levels seen before the ECB presser to below $1.11. Ahead of the European open the euro stabilized above $1.11, edging 0.12 higher to $1.1135.
With a non eventful European calendar, all eyes are now focused on the US non-farm payrolls. The figure is even more important this time around as it is likely to provide a hint to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate hike intentions.
"Interest rate markets are currently pricing in a 30% probability of a September hike in interest rates from the Federal Reserve, 42% for October and 57% for December," Chris Weston from IG wrote on Friday.
Market expectation is that 217,000 jobs were added in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 5.2%, moving into the Fed’s full employment target. Average hourly earnings, year-on-year, are expected to increase a modest 2.1%.