Eur/usd - page 143

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EUR/USD Stalls within Strong Bearish Trend

EUR/USD (daily chart) has tentatively stalled within a new bearish trend that has steadfastly asserted itself within the past three months. The current consolidation occurs near the year-to-date low of 1.3332, hit just last week, which established a new 9-month low for the currency pair.

Since the beginning of July, the currency pair has made a virtually uninterrupted free fall from 1.3700-area resistance, extending the broader decline from May’s 1.3993 multi-year high.

The breakdown below 1.3500 in late July provided a pivotal indicator of EUR/USD’s continued bearish momentum. The pair has continued its decline by dropping below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bullish trend from the July 2013 low around 1.2750 up to the noted May 1.3993 multi-year high.

Despite the current consolidation, EUR/USD continues to maintain a strong bearish bias. The 50-day moving average crossed sharply below the 200-day average in late June and has continued to slope sharply downward.

With major upside resistance on any rebound still residing at the 1.3500 level, the currency pair is targeting its next major downside objective around the 1.3300 support level, last hit in November of 2013, followed by the 1.3100 level, last hit in September 2013.

 

thank you for the information

 

Euro-Zone Economy Stalls in Second Quarter as German GDP Slips

The euro-zone economy stalled in the second quarter, raising the ugly prospect that the region's meager recovery has lost momentum just as it faces fresh headwinds from Russia and Ukraine.

Germany's economy, long Europe's growth engine, shrank for the first time in more than a year, a development economists largely attributed to a mild winter that boosted activity in the first quarter at the expense of the second. The bigger concerns, they say, are France and Italy, where respectable rates of growth aren't even in sight.

"The euro-zone recovery never really got going, and now it appears to be petering out," said Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a nonpartisan London think tank.

The gloomy numbers out of the euro zone—whose roughly $13 trillion economy accounts for 17% of the world's gross domestic product—join a litany of similarly sour reports this week from Asia, all pointing to signs of sudden weakness among many major economies.

The downturns in Europe and Asia come as the U.S. flashes signs of increasing economic vigor after a brief chill earlier this year. The U.S. economy grew in the second quarter by an annual rate of 4%, thanks to stronger consumer spending and corporate investment. Despite tepid wage gains, U.S. firms have been on the strongest sustained hiring stretch since 2006, adding more than 200,000 jobs each month since February.

But the growing sense of optimism in the U.S. contrasts with deepening uncertainty in many other parts of the world.

Mexico's central bank lowered its growth forecast for 2014 to 2.4% from 2.8% on Wednesday. Japan reported a sharp contraction in the second quarter as output fell 6.8% in the wake of an April increase in the country's sales tax. Japan's slow recovery, despite heavy stimulus, is in part the result of surprisingly weak exports—a condition that stems from soft demand elsewhere in the world and shows how weakness can spread among economies.

In China, the central bank reported Wednesday that the broadest measure of new lending had plunged by two-thirds in July from the previous month, setting off alarm bells that the world's second-largest national economy might be heading for a hard landing.

It is possible such sluggishness is temporary—July is often a down month for credit and June's credit growth had been exceptionally strong. Even so, the figures suggested that several months of "mini-stimulus" spending on infrastructure, transportation and information technology, as well the central bank's injections of cash into China's financial system, hasn't done much to lift the economy.
 

Hi,

Good to know that, thank you.

 

the negative american data today triggered the reversal maybe its only a correction i think we will need a confirmation from today's close

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of August 18, 2014,

The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but for the third week in a row found support below, and ended up forming a hammer. Because of that, we believe that the Euro is about to get a bounce, not only because of this chart, but because of some other EUR related charts. With that, we think that we are heading to the 1.35 handle first, and then will have to make more significant decisions at that level. In the meantime, we would not be interested in selling this market until we get below the 1.33 level.

source

 

EUR/USD Forecast August 18-22

EUR/USD saw a new slide once again. but did not really make a substantial move. The focus is on the PMIs and on Mario Draghi speech in Jackson Hole. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The Eurozone releases showed a stall in the euro area recovery with poor economic climate and sluggish growth in the second quarter. Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment plunged to 8.6 points from 27.1 in July, well below market forecast of 18.2 points, and the Current condition index fell to 44.3, indicating geopolitical tensions halt expansion in Germany. Furthermore, the Eurozone economies fail to generate real growth. Germany, the leading force in the euro area contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, according to preliminary GDP estimates, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Likewise France economy remained flat form the first quarter. Will this trend continue?

  1. Trade Balance: Monday, 9:00. The euro zone’s trade surplus widened less-than-expected in May, reaching €15.3 billion from a surplus of €15.2 billion in April. Exports climbed to €160.5 billion in May, from €159.6 billion in April, and imports increased to €145.2 billion, from €144.4 billion in the preceding month. On an unadjusted basis, the surplus remained at EUR 15.4 billion. The trade surplus is expected to narrow to14.98 billion.
  2. Current Account: Tuesday, 8:00. The Eurozone current account surplus declined in May to a seasonally adjusted EUR 19.5 billion from EUR 21.6 billion in April. The surplus products declined to EUR 13.8 billion from EUR 16.9 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile, the surplus on services edged up to EUR 13 billion from EUR 10 billion. Income narrowed sharply to EUR 1.7 billion from EUR 5.4 billion. However, the deficit in current transfers narrowed to EUR 8.9 billion from EUR 10.7 billion. The Eurozone current account surplus is expected to widen to 21.3 billion this time.
  3. German PPI: Wednesday, 6:00. German producer prices dropped again in June, however at a slower pace. Producer prices declined 0.7%, following 0.8% drop in May, in line with market forecast. Energy prices continued to fall, dropping 2.4% in June. While, prices of commodities edged up 1.3% and prices of consumer goods and capital goods increased 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. On a monthly base, producer prices remained unchanged in June, after the 0.2% fall in May. German producer prices are forecasted to rise 0.1%.
  4. Manufacturing and Services PMIs: Thursday. The Eurozone’s economic recovery rebounded slowly in July, driven by Germany and the services sector. However the crisis in Ukraine is a big concern for companies, making it hard to commit to new purchases, investment and hiring. The Eurozone services sector expanded to 54.4 from 52.8, reaching its highest level in more than three years. However, despite the rebound in services the sector, companies did not expand their workforces, while continuing to cut their selling prices. Meanwhile the euro area manufacturing sector inched higher to 51.9 from 51.8 in June. Germany continued to strengthen with a sharp expansion in the services sector, rising at the fastest pace in more than three years, reaching 56.6, gaining 2 points from June. However the Ukraine situation poses a major risk on future prospects. German manufacturing also improved, rising to 52.9 form 52 in the prior month. France remained the weak link among the largest economies in the euro area. Private-sector activity in July rose to 50.4 from 48.2 in June, reaching expansion. But the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 from 48.2 to reach a seven-month low. Except for the rise in the Eurozone’s services sector, the general tone continued to be gloomy, with new orders falling for the fourth straight month, while employment fell for the ninth straight month. French Manufacturing is expected to improve to 47.9, while services is expected to reach 50.3, German Manufacturing is expected to drop to 51.8, and Services to 55.5, Eurozone Manufacturing is expected to decline to 51.4, and Services to 53.6.
  5. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 14:00. Consumer sentiment in the euro zone plunged below expectations in July, falling to -8.4 from a revised -7.5 in June. Analysts expected the index to rise to -6. The sharp decline raises concerns over the Euro-area’s economic recovery. The chief concern is the conflict in eastern Ukraine, where separatists backed by Russia are fighting government forces. As a result the Eurozone considers imposing economic sanctions on Russia, a leading economy in the Europe. Such measures could endanger the euro zone economic recovery. A Consumer sentiment is expected to drop further to -9.
  6. Mario Draghi speaks: Friday, 18:30. European Central Bank head Mario Draghi will follow Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and talk about employment issues. Market volatility is expected especially as the new data, especially GDP is certainly worrying. Could Draghi up the ante on the chance of QE?

* All times are GMT

 

Eurozone Trade Data Expected On Monday

Eurozone trade figures are among the economic data scheduled for release on Monday, a light day on the economic calendar.

Eurostat will release its trade balance report for the eurozone at 5 am ET. The trade surplus is expected to decrease to EUR 14.9 billion in June from EUR 15.4 billion in May.

At 3 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is due to release its producer prices report. Producer prices are expected to fall at a faster rate of 0.3 percent year-over-year in July, after the 0.2 percent drop in June.

At 3:30 am ET, Statistics Sweden will release its industrial capacity report for the second quarter. In the first quarter, industrial capacity utilization was at 88.5 percent.

At 9 am ET, Poland's finance ministry is scheduled to release its budget balance report for July. In June, the budget deficit was at PLN 25.299 billion.

 

Euro steady against dollar, yen

The euro was little changed against the dollar and the yen on Monday as investors continued to monitor the situation in Ukraine, amid hopes for a ceasefire.

EUR/USD dipped 0.08% to 1.3388 from 1.3399 late Friday, still close to the nine month low of 1.3332 struck on August 8.

The pair was likely to find support at around the 1.3350 level and resistance at 1.3410, Friday’s high.

Concerns over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated on Friday after Ukraine’s military attacked and destroyed a number of armored vehicles that entered the country from Russia.

Market sentiment was buoyed by hopes that a meeting due to take place between Russian and Ukraine’s foreign ministers later in the day would result in a breakthrough to ease geopolitical tensions in the region.

EUR/JPY was steady at 137.14, while USD/JPY eased up 0.08% to 102.44.

Elsewhere, the single currency was lower against the pound after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said over the weekend that interest rates could rise before wage growth picks up.

EUR/GBP was down 0.34% to 0.8001 from 0.8026 late Friday.

In a newspaper interview published on Sunday Carney said that the bank did not have to wait for wage growth to recover before raising interest rates, shifting away from comments last week indicating the opposite.

Investors were looking ahead to Wednesday’s minutes of the BoE’s August policy meeting for indications that the bank is moving closer to hiking borrowing costs.

source

 

Euro-zone trade surplus expands in June

The euro zone's trade surplus with the rest of the world rose in June, according to official figures Monday, as an increase in exports outpaced a pickup in imports.

The data offer rare good news for the euro zone's struggling economy, after figures showed economic growth in the 18-nation currency union stalled in the second quarter.

The trade data also highlight the region's deteriorating relationship with Russia over Moscow's alleged interference in Ukraine, where the government in Kiev is battling pro-Russian forces in the country's eastern regions. Euro-zone exports to Russia, which were slowing even before the European Union and U.S. agreed tougher sanctions on Moscow last month, were lower in the year to May than they were a year earlier, data showed.

The euro zone's surplus in goods trade with the rest of the world swelled to EUR16.8 billion ($22.5 billion) in June, compared with a surplus of EUR15.4 billion in May and a surplus of EUR15.7 billion in June 2013, Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, said in a report Monday.

Exports rose 3% on the year, outpacing a 2% rise in imports, the agency said.

The improvement in the region's trade balance was driven by a rise in exports to China, the U.S. and the U.K.

Exports to Russia were 14% lower in the year to May than they were in the same period a year earlier, data showed, while imports from Russia were down 7%.

The decline largely reflects a slowdown in the Russian economy this year but trade with the EU's eastern neighbor is expected to slow further in 2014 as sanctions against Moscow bite.

In July, the EU and U.S. agreed sweeping economic sanctions against Moscow in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's alleged support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The sanctions include restrictions on Russian banks' ability to raise money in European capital markets. Russia responded by banning imports of food from the U.S. and EU.

The standoff with Russia represents another headwind for the euro-zone economy, where gross domestic product was flat in the second quarter compared with the first. That translated into just 0.2% growth in annualized terms.

The European Central Bank in June unveiled a package of measures aimed at lifting growth in the region, including a new round of cheap cash for banks to finance lending to households and businesses.

source

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