Eur/usd - page 147
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Is the consolidation over? EUR/USD loses support
After starting with a significant gap lower, EUR/USD got comfortable but was unable to close the gap. Not so impressive US data and then a better batch left the pair in range.
Perhaps this consolidation has ended with EUR/USD falling to new lows below support.
The last important US figure was positive: the highest consumer confidence since 2007.
The Price keep losing momentum fast after the US positive data. The correction might happen soon.
German Consumer Sentiment Set To Fall In September
German consumer sentiment is set to drop in September, according to a survey conducted by the market research group GfK.
The forward-looking consumer confidence index fell to 8.6 from a revised score of 8.9 in August, data showed Wednesday. The index was expected to drop marginally to 8.9 from August's initially estimated value of 9.
Both income expectations and willingness to buy dropped slightly in August, while economic expectations completely collapsed in light of the intensified state of international affairs, it said.
The economic expectations index plunged 35.5 points to 10.4 points in August. This was the sharpest fall since the survey began in 1980.
The income expectations index slid 4.6 points to 50.1 in August. It still remained at an extremely high level.
However, the collapsing economic mood has not had much of an impact on the propensity to consume, the research group said. The indicator measuring willingness to buy dropped only 1.7 points to 49.3 in August.
source
EURUSD tried to rally initially during yesterday session, but the 1.32 area has offered resistance once again. The market seems like it’s ready to continue the move downwards, especially considering that the candle closed near the low of the day. The market should head to the 1.3102, which is the next area of support made on September 2013 low.
I think that if it breaks through the resistance at 1.3200 it might reach 1.3250, but after that I too think it will probably start falling again and reach 1.3100.
ECB speculation weighs on euro; stocks buoyant
The euro extended its slide on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in a year against the dollar as expectation grew that the European Central Bank will act soon to counter low growth and inflation.
Government bond yields around the world remained under pressure and stock markets were buoyant on the prospect of further stimulus in the world's second largest economic bloc, although European bourses struggled to make any much headway following two days of strong gains.
Fueling the ECB easing speculation, Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said Italy must lower its growth forecast for this year and German consumer sentiment fell for the first time since early last year.
Steve Barrow, senior strategist at Standard Bank in London, said the ECB faced a tough task in getting the market to believe it will bring inflation back up towards its target of close to, but below 2 percent.
"It will probably require things like QE (quantitative easing), much lower bond yields – and a much lower euro," he said.
Euro zone inflation data due on Friday is likely to show a new low for this cycle of just 0.3 percent and add to the sense of urgency on policy.
ECB president Mario Draghi's call last week for more action on both the monetary and fiscal fronts has markets wagering that fresh steps could come as soon as next week when the central bank's governing council meets.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Wednesday, however, cooled some of the fevered speculation, saying Draghi's comments had been "overinterpreted".
The euro broke down to an 11-month low of $1.3152 in Asian trade on Wednesday before recovering some ground to $1.3185 in early European trade, slightly higher on the day.
The euro's earlier weakness helped lift the U.S. dollar index to its highest level in 13 months at 82.698 before it too eased back. The greenback dipped against the yen below 104 yen, further back from Monday's 7-month peak at 104.49.
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Euro Rises From 11-Month Low Versus Dollar on Schaeuble Comments
The euro rose from its lowest in almost a year after Germany’s finance minister said comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi advocating support for euro-zone fiscal policy were “over-interpreted.”
The shared currency advanced for the first time in four days versus the dollar even as economists predict data tomorrow will show German inflation stalled, bolstering bets the ECB will add to stimulus when ECB officials meet next week. New Zealand’s currency rallied, while the Turkish lira rose to the highest level in two weeks after the central bank held the repurchase rate.
“There are expectations that moves by the ECB will potentially add further downside momentum to the euro, but the fact is we’re in wait-and-see mode,” said Phyllis Papadavid, a senior global-currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA. “People are taking some of their positions off the table and taking profit.” BNP closed its short euro-dollar trade at $1.32 on Aug. 25.
The euro strengthened 0.1 percent to $1.3183 as of 9:04 a.m. in New York after falling to $1.3153, the lowest level since Sept. 6. The common currency slipped 0.1 percent to 136.88 yen. The dollar weakened 0.2 percent to 103.83 yen after completing a seven-day advance yesterday that was the longest stretch of gains since July.
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Euro Advances From 11-Month Low as ECB Stimulus Outlook Cools
The euro rose from its lowest in almost a year as speculation cooled that that the European Central Bank will add further monetary stimulus when it meets next week.
The 18-nation currency gained for the first time in four days versus the dollar after a Reuters report citing unidentified ECB sources said the central bank is unlikely to add stimulus unless an August inflation report raises the risk of deflation. Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday that comments by ECB President Mario Draghi advocating support for euro-zone fiscal policy were “over-interpreted.” New Zealand’s currency rallied, while the Turkish lira rose to the highest level in two weeks.
“The euro is retracing some of Friday and Monday’s move lower,” said Richard Franulovich, the chief currency strategist for the northern hemisphere at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “That was after Draghi set those expectations at Jackson Hole. We’re now seeing the somewhat inevitable pushback.” Draghi spoke in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22.
The euro strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.3193 as of 1:06 p.m. in New York after falling to $1.3153, the lowest level since Sept. 6. The common currency added 0.1 percent to 137.13 yen. The dollar weakened 0.1 percent to 103.94 yen after completing a seven-day advance yesterday that was the longest stretch of gains since July.
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German jobless claims rise by 2,000 in August
The number of unemployed people in Germany rose unexpectedly in August, while the country’s jobless rate held steady at a record low, official data showed on Thursday.
In a report, Germany's Federal Statistics Office said the number of unemployed people increased by a seasonally adjusted 2,000 this month, compared to expectations for a drop of 5,000. Jobless claims in July fell by 11,000.
The report showed that Germany’s unemployment held steady at 6.7% in August, in line with expectations and unchanged from July.
Following the release of the data, the euro held on to gains against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD rising 0.05% to trade at 1.3200, compared to 1.3204 ahead of the report.
source
The EURUSD rose during the course of last day session, testing the 1.32 level. Being an area of significant resistance, the gap lower that happened at the beginning of the week is still in effect and it should act as resistance, it should offer nice selling opportunities.