My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 38
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Gold forecast for the week of June 23, 2014
The gold markets initially dipped during the week, but the $1250 level provided enough support to keep the market somewhat afloat, thereby pushing it back above the $1300 level. If we can get to the $1400 level, we then have an inverse head and shoulders, signifying that we should head to the $1600 level where there is a convenient cluster placed. We do ultimately believe that the gold markets go higher, so therefore on a break of the highs from this past week, we would go ahead and start buying
GBP/USD forecast for the week of June 30, 2014
The GBP/USD pair broke down a little bit during the course of the week, but as you can see the 1.70 level has in fact offered enough support to form a hammer now, and that of course suggests that the market is going higher. We are very bullish of the British pound as the British economy seems to be coming out of recession, and that the Federal Reserve seems to be having struggles as far as tapering off of quantitative easing in the future. Nonetheless, we believe that the market does continue to go higher, aiming for the 1.75 level.
USD/CHF weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4
The dollar fell to five-week lows against the Swiss franc on Friday, despite improved U.S. consumer sentiment data after poor economic reports earlier in the week undermined the outlook for the broader recovery.
USD/CHF was down 0.32% to 0.8906 late Friday, the lowest level since May 21. The pair ended the week with losses of 0.55%.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.8885 and resistance at 0.8937, Friday’s high.
The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.
The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more sharply than expected in the first three months of 2014.
The Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.
U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.
The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released one day early on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
read more
USD/CHF weekly outlook: July 7 - 11
The dollar rose to more than one-week highs against the Swiss franc on Friday a day after a robust U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for June sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its timetable for raising interest rates.
USD/CHF was at 0.8945 late Friday, up from 0.8885 on Thursday and ended the week with gains of 0.38%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.8920 and resistance at 0.9000.
The greenback was boosted after the Labor Department reported that that U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for jobs growth of 212,000.
The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 224,000 from a previously reported increase of 217,000.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.3% in May, the lowest in almost six years. The data was released a day early, ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.
The upbeat data revived speculation over when the Federal Reserve may start to raise interest rates.
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.31 late Friday, recovering from the two-month lows of 79.84 reached earlier in the week.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesdays’ minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, while Switzerland is to release reports on inflation and retail sales. The Swiss central bank is also to publish its monthly report on currency reserves.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.
Monday, July 7
The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.
Tuesday, July 8
Switzerland is to produce reports on consumer price inflation and retail sales.
Wednesday, July 9
The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.
Thursday, July 10
The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.
source
USD/JPY forecast for the week of July 14
The USD/JPY pair fell during the bulk of the week, testing the 101 level yet again. This level has been supportive for quite some time though, essentially the entirety of the year 2014. With that being the case, the market could bounce from here and that’s essentially what we expect. However, there really isn’t anything in the way of a long-term signal as far as we can see, but we certainly wouldn’t short this market. We think short-term traders will continue to move this market, thereby leaving it difficult for longer-term traders to be bothered with.
source
USD/JPY forecast for the week of July 28, 2014
The USD/JPY pair bounced during the week, to continue the consolidation that we have seen for some time. With that, we believe that the marketplace should continue to bounce around between the 101 and 103 levels, and as a result we don’t really have much of a play as far as long-term traders are concerned. With that, we believe that it is not until we break above the 103 level that we can start buying for the longer term. As far selling is concerned, we have to break down below the 100 level before we would consider that.
USD/JPY Forecast Jul. 28 – Aug. 1
USD/JPY rose from the lows approaching the well known 102 line once again in a week that saw lots of dollar strength. Will it pick a direction now? Consumer related figures such as retail sales and household spending stand out Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.
In Japan, inflation numbers came out more than expected and speculation about the BOJ’s next moves “stole the show”: it seems that the economic improvement is not moving fast enough for investors. With the government seeming unable to introduce new reforms, the BOJ could come in handy and lend a helping hand. In the US, most data has been good, supporting a stronger US dollar. Will this continue?
* All times are GMT
source
USD/JPY forecast for the week of August 4, 2014
The USD/JPY pair rose during the course of the week, but as you can see the 103 level, the top of the recent consolidation area, has held it back yet again. Because of that, we feel that nothing is really change in this marketplace, and that buying dips for short-term traders will be a great strategy, but quite frankly the longer-term trader isn’t getting much out of it. If we managed to break above the 103 level, then fine, we could be buyers. If we broke down below 101, we would expect to see plenty of support all the way down to 100.
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USD/JPY weekly outlook: August 11 - 15
The dollar fell to more than two week lows against the yen on Friday as escalating geopolitical tensions bolstered safe haven demand, before retracing most of its losses late in the session.
USD/JPY ended Friday’s session down 0.06% at 102.03, after falling to a more-than two week low of 101.50 earlier in the day. The pair ended the week with losses of 0.53%.
The pair is likely to find support at around the 101.40 level and resistance at 102.60.
The drop in the dollar came after the U.S. launched airstrikes in Iraq, in a bit to halt the advance of extremists in the country’s north, while a breakdown in the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza also soured market sentiment.
The dollar later trimmed back losses as fears over hostilities between Russia and Ukraine eased after Russia’s defense ministry said it had concluded military exercises it was holding close to the border with Ukraine.
In the U.S., data on Friday showed that wholesale inventories rose by a smaller than forecast 0.3% in June.
Elsewhere Friday, the yen ended lower against the euro, with EUR/JPY rising 0.31% to 136.83, paring the week’s losses to 0.65%.
On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that the bank was pleased with the weaker exchange rate for the euro, which should help to bolster inflation and shore up exports.
He also played down concerns over the recent slowdown in inflation, saying it is mostly due to energy prices.
In the week ahead, investors will be continuing to monitor geopolitical risk. Wednesday’s preliminary data on second quarter growth from Japan and the U.S. report on retail sales will also be in focus.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday as there are no relevant events on this day.
read more
Euraud
@dhanmoney
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