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Euro To Dollar Exchange Rate: "Renewed Risks Of Trumpening Temporarily Dented USD's Upward Trajectory"
Foreign exchange analysts examine whether you should go long or short on the Euro to Dollar (EUR USD) exchange rate in the US presidential election week ahead.
"Renewed risks of a Trumpening have temporarily dented the USD’s upward trajectory" warn Nordea Markets in a brief to clients.
"This is a temporary setback as focus will soon return to European politics, the Fed’s rate hike as well as to ECB’s QE extension."
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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast for November 7-11
Dollar weakness has fueled a move higher in EUR/USD, with the pair surging 1.5% in last week’s trading and breaking above key resistance in the process. A late day move higher on Friday resulted in a breakout above the lows established in late August and mid-September, as the pair reached 1.11450 for a high and closed out the session at the high.
Given the extreme overbought condition which is now a factor on the daily chart, a pullback is expected to kick off the coming week’s trading, a development that could push the pair back below key resistance. Therefore, it will be important that EUR/USD stabilize and move back above resistance once any near term decline runs its course in order to suggest a sustainable, longer term low has been established.
On a move to the downside, first support is at the former October 20th spike high at 1.10392. Holding this level on a pullback would keep the pair well-positioned to resume the advance and make a sustained break above the aforementioned lows. Signs of stabilization at or above the October 20th high would imply new buying is warranted in anticipation of a resumption of the move above the late-August/mid-September lows.
The release of the October employment data failed to give a boost to the dollar, which has been under steady selling pressure since establishing a closing high on October 27th. From the October 27th closing high through Friday’s close, the dollar has lost just over 2%. The October U.S. jobs numbers came in weaker than expected, at +161K. Consensus estimate was for an increase of 175,000 jobs in the U.S. However, September nonfarm payrolls were revised higher from 156,000 to 191,000. And, rate hike expectations remain solid, as average hourly earnings were up 2.8% year-over-year. This is the strongest pace since June 2009 and a good sign for the economic outlook.
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Germany factory orders Sept mm -0.6% vs +0.2% exp
Germany September factory orders report 7 Nov
Not good news and a reality check for Germany and indeed the Eurozone
Euro pairs a tad lower but bigger fish to fry right now in the global picture. Keep this data in mind though. Plenty of talk out of Germany recently about better Q3/H2 growth and this isn't supporting that expectation.
On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD initially fell but found enough support around 1.1078 to reverse and closed near the high of the day, also managed to close above Thursday’s high, which suggests a strong bullish momentum.
The pair is trading above the 10 and 50-day moving averages that should act as a dynamic supports however the currency pair continues to trade below the 200-day moving average that should act as dynamic resistance.
The key levels to watch are: the 200-day moving average at 1.1198 (resistance), a Fibonacci retracement at 1.1181 (resistance), the 50-day moving average at 1.1109 (support), a daily support at 1.1097 and the 10-day moving average at 1.1003 (support).
The EUR/USD pair is turning bearish in the short-term, given the fact that the price broke below the support line at 1.1060. Anyway the US elections tomorrow has the last saying.
The single currency marked a modest decline against the US dollar on Monday. The session closed 22 pips lower at 1.1039. The price is currently located above the moving averages, while RSI remains at neutral territory. If the downward trend continues we may expect a breakthrough of the first support at 1.0980. Next support is placed at 1.0815, while resistance is seen at 1.1160 and next one at 1.1286.
Yesterday the EURUSD opened with a Gap down and tried to rally but found enough resistance at the 50-day moving average to reverse, closing near the low of the day, in addition the pair managed to close below Friday’s low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.
The pair is trading above the 10 moving average that should act as a dynamic support however the currency pair trades below the 50 and the 200-day moving average that should act as dynamic resistances.
The key levels to watch are: the 200-day moving average at 1.1196 (resistance), a Fibonacci retracement at 1.1181 (resistance), the 50-day moving average at 1.1101 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1097 and the 10-day moving average at 1.1036 (support).
Today the EUR/USD is feeling under great pressure and the pair fell to previous lows and was testing the 1.1010 level. Clinton’s victory might drive the pair downwards to October 25th low at 1.0850. Indicators are placed within negative territory. RSI is currently at around 36% level and stochastic is showing oversold market, both confirming the bearish trend. Anyway the elections results have the last saying and the pair’s direction is still being uncertain.