Eur/usd - page 418
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EUR/USD: Pair Eases Toward $1.13, Awaits FOMC Minutes The greenback was trading near daily highs in the $1.1330/40 area heading into the US session, and the pair was spotted 0.35% lower on the day.
The short-term support is at $1.1335 and while above, the outlook is still bullish, targeting the $1.14 barrier. However, dropping below $1.1335 would end the short-term bullish bias and the pair might correct toward $1.13 or further lower.
Later in the US session, the most focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in March when the FOMC cut the interest rate outlook and economic projections, which undermined the greenback.
"This week's FOMC minutes could well open up some clarity on where the divisions on the committee are, particularly given that an expansion in the hawkish camp could present problems for Janet Yellen, in the event we see the economic data continue to show significant signs of improvement between now and the end of April," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said on Wednesday.
Should the minutes sound dovish, the pair might quickly return toward the $1.14 mark, while on the other hand, a somewhat neutral tone might support the greenback against the single currency.
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EUR/USD: Pair Bounces Higher, Awaits FOMC Minutes The pair was trading near daily highs, jumping some 40 pips toward $1.1400 in the early US morning, following steep losses seen earlier during the European session.
The short-term support is at $1.1335 and while above, the outlook is still bullish, targeting the $1.14 barrier. However, dropping below $1.1335 would end the short-term bullish bias and the pair might correct toward $1.13 or further lower.
Later in the US session, the most focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in March when the FOMC cut the interest rate outlook and economic projections, which undermined the greenback.
"This week's FOMC minutes could well open up some clarity on where the divisions on the committee are, particularly given that an expansion in the hawkish camp could present problems for Janet Yellen, in the event we see the economic data continue to show significant signs of improvement between now and the end of April," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said on Wednesday.
Should the minutes sound dovish, the pair might quickly return toward the $1.14 mark, while on the other hand, a somewhat neutral tone might support the greenback against the single currency.
read more
Euro/dollar had another indecisive movement yesterday. Short-term expectations remain neutral. The longer the pair holds above 1.1335, the price is still in bullish phase for testing 1.1500. On the downside, a clear break and daily close below 1.1335 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.1250 or lower. The main technical outlook also remains neutral.
EUR/USD showed quite hesitant steps yesterday. Price slipped below 1.1335 but closed higher at 1.1397. In the short term the tune is neutral. Potential daily range is seen between 1.1500 - 1.1335.
Yesterday EURUSD went back and forward without any clear direction again with a wide range, creating an outside day and closed in the middle of the daily range, in addition managed to close within the previous day range, suggesting lack of momentum plus indecision among the traders.
The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1555, other daily resistance at 1.1456, the 10-day moving average at 1.1357 (support), the previous swing high at 1.1342 (support) and daily support at 1.1237.
EUR/USD: Euro Reverses Sentiment Amid ECB's Annual Report The euro erased gains shortly after the European open on Thursday as the European Central Bank (ECB) released its 2015 annual report.
In the report, President Mario Draghi said that the bank faces an equally challenging year as 2015 in terms of uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.
"2016 will be a no less challenging year for the ECB," Draghi said in the 2015 annual report.
"We face continued disinflationary forces. And we face questions about the direction of Europe and its resilience to new shocks," Draghi added.
The euro gave away early morning gains and retreated from daily highs of $1.1454, trading 0.16% lower at $1.1380.
Draghi further said the ECB's quantitative easing, where it effectively prints money to buy chiefly state bonds, would boost economic output or GDP in the euro zone by around 1.5 percentage points between 2015 and 2018.
The ongoing European session will see further speeches from ECB officials, including Benoit Coeure.
"The publication of today’s ECB minutes might offer some clues as to where the “absurd” threshold is, and whether the ECB discussed any other measures that didn’t end up being implemented at the last meeting," Michael Hewson from CMC Markets wrote in a research note on Thursday.
In addition, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said at a conference in Frankfurt that not only monetary policy, but all economic policies need to be focused on achieving higher structural growth and employment.
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EUR/USD: Pair Falls Below $1.14 Level, Awaits Further Impetus The euro failed to breach September 2015 highs around $1.1450 and after the initial push higher, it was sold-off notably to below the $1.14 mark, trading as low as $1.1356 at one point.
The US session brought usual US jobless claims, where the Labor Department data showed that initial jobless claims dipped to 267,000 in the seven days ended April 2, down from the 276,000 snatched in the previous week. The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell to 2.191 million in the week ended March 26, down from 2.172 million snatched previously.
During the US session, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen will have a conversation with former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker, with markets hoping that some discussion centers on the current rate hike debate.
From the US dollar perspective, yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) brought little surprise, although some governors had argued for a rate hike in April. As there was no bullish signal for the greenback, traders preferred to sell it and the EUR/USD pair remained bid.
"The minutes highlighted clearly that FOMC participants judged that downside risks to economic growth and inflation have increased. The number of FOMC participants who judge that risks to growth are broadly balanced is now roughly similar to the number of who see risks as weighted to the downside marking a more dovish shift," analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi said on Thursday.
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The EUR/USD is slightly to not changed in today's session after reaching major resistance at level of 1.1450. Low volumes are a signal for a change in trend and if this is case also, then we should see 1.1250 next week.
Slightly uplifted, the EUR/USD managed to climb above 1.1370. Lack of fresh news might drive prices down in tomorrow's session. First support zone remains 1.1320, second support zone is 1.1250.
EUR/USD: Broad Range Intact; Sidelined For Now As for the euro, EUR/USD is stuck in a broad range that doesn’t look to me anywhere near ready to break. In the spirit of looking at real yields, I’ve plotted EUR/USD against the Bund/Treasury real yield differential, currently 104bp.
US real yields probably need to rise by 50bp or so to get EUR/USD back to 1.05, which seems very unlikely any time soon. If that doesn’t happen, it’s up to the ECB to drive real yields lower independently. Meanwhile, a break through 1.16 for EUR/USD needs the real yield spread to narrow by about 25bp. That would need 10-year nominal Treasury yields to fall comfortably below 1.5%. I think a 1.1660 1.06 range holds.
That’s a fairly wide range, but it’s captured nearly all the price action since last February, and the moves within that range are likely to depend on the ebb and flow of bond market sentiment and the vagaries of each and every economic statistic.
We don’t intend to publish any directional EUR/USD ideas until there’s a chance of a clearer trend emerging.
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