Eur/usd - page 420
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The week ahead is full of Fed’s senior officials speeches and markets will follow them closely, we may expect steep and volatile movements.
The single currency marked a humble decline against the US dollar on Monday. The choppy trading pushed the pair to lose 12 pips, to a closing price of 1.1404. If the direction continue to run down, the euro will face the first support at 1.1286.
EUR/USD is trading lower today reaching 1.1434 and currently trading at 1.1425. Price appears to be trading sideways range bound between 1.1350 and 1.1450. Should we see a break above 1.1480 then we may consider that the EUR/USD is on its way North. Until then market sentiment remains bearish with first target 1.1310 and second target 1.1290.
Yesterday EURUSD went back and forward without any clear direction and closed in the middle of the daily range, in addition managed also to close within the previous day range, suggesting lack of momentum.
The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1555, other daily resistance at 1.1456, the 10-day moving average at 1.1396 (support), the previous swing high at 1.1342 (support) and daily support at 1.1237.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sell Below $1.1380 for Further Weakness The EUR/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range between $1.1370 and $1.1445 for the past two trading session. On Tuesday the pair was trading around $1.14227.
The currency formed a so-called diamond pattern with major resistance at $1.1450 and major support at $1.1370.
On the higher side, EUR/USD should break $1.1450 for further bullishness and break above the targets $1.1500-$1.1545 in the short term. The minor resistance is around $1.1438.
A minor weakness can be seen only if it breaks below $1.1380, and that will drag the pair lower to $1.1320-$1.1280-$1.1200.
Trade idea: Sell below $1.1380 with a Stop Loss around $1.1438 targeting Take Profit at $1.1280-$1.1200.
source
Brutal reversal in EUR/USD continues as US dollar gets broad lift
Nothing nastier than a false breakout
The euro broke above a tough band of resistance around 1.1450 in European trade. It touched 1.1465, the highest since October 4.
It's been a complete reversal from there. The US dollar has slowly gained momentum and the IMF global growth downgrades gave it another lift. In turn, that's weighed on EUR/USD a taken it down to the lowest since Friday.
The latest leg isn't so much a euro fall as it's a broad dollar rally.
Technically, it's an outside bearish reversal. That's especially notable since it came after hitting a new cycle high. Now, the 1.1323 level is critical. If that breaks, it could be precipitous fall lower but at the moment, no side of the euro trade is feeling particularly comfortable.
source
Most volatility is expected after publishing US retail sales later on today. Upon good data the USD might push higher.
EUR/USD: Euro Trades Lower, Bullish Momentum Wanes The euro was easing on Wednesday and failed to return above the $1.14 mark, with the pair spotted 0.25% lower, trading around $1.1355 at the Frankfurt open.
Later in the day French CPI for March is due, but more importantly the euro zone's industrial production for February, which is projected to crash and might weaken the single currency.
However, most volatility should come after today's US retail sales for March, which are projected to pick up slightly. Moreover, PPI indices for March should also improve slightly, with core PPI inflation expected remain at February's levels.
"The Fed also publishes its Beige Book of regional economic conditions which will be used as an input into the next FOMC meeting on 26-27 April. Already, the odds of rate hikes at the next few FOMC meetings have been reduced sharply which backloads the FOMC’s preferred two rate hikes later in the year," Neil MacKinnon at VTB Capital wrote on Wednesday.
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Yesterday EURUSD went back and forward without any clear direction again and closed in the middle of the daily range, in addition managed also to close within the previous day range, suggesting lack of momentum.
The pair closed below the 10-day moving average that should act as a dynamic resistance but is above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1556, other daily resistance at 1.1459, the 10-day moving average at 1.1388 (support), the previous swing high at 1.1342 (support) and daily support at 1.1237.
EUR/USD: Dollar at Daily Highs Ahead of Retail Sales The greenback was trading broadly higher on Wednesday and the EUR/USD pair was hovering around the $1.13 mark, which represents the current daily lows and it was 0.7% weaker on the day. Further volatility is expected after today's US macro data.
The main focus will be on today's US retail sales for March, which are due later in the day and are projected to pick up slightly. Moreover, PPI indices for March should also improve marginally, with core PPI inflation expected to remain at February's levels.
Attention will then switch to Thursday's US CPI for March. Inflation should stay at February levels, which might not be enough for the current anti-dollar sentiment to change and therefore the greenback may come under selling pressure.
"As we had anticipated, the hawkish line-up of Fed speakers gave the oversold USD a bullish push. Richmond Fed Lacker commented that faster pace of inflation suggested that roughly four 25bp rate hikes would be warranted in 2016," Peter Rosenstreich, chief FX analyst at Swissquote bank said on WEdnesday.
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