Eur/usd - page 248
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The EUR/USD is in the same range between 1.100- 1.0820 since 22nd of March price tried to break the support and resistance more than one time with no success. I hope Tomorrow's FOMC minute will push the price out of the tight range.
The EUR/USD is in the same range between 1.100- 1.0820 since 22nd of March price tried to break the support and resistance more than one time with no success. I hope Tomorrow's FOMC minute will push the price out of the tight range.
be careful - short term trend is bullish - almost like it is kept in range in purpose
Euro Gradually Extends Gains
The euro extended it's gradual overnight rally on Wednesday ahead of the European, erasing some of the previous session's losses.
The single European currency added 0.31% to $1.0847, still far below this week's peak of $1.1034 seen on Monday.
The macro agenda in Europe includes German factory orders and EMU retail sales numbers which may confirm that the European Central Bank's QE and lower oil prices are indeed having a positive impact on European economies.
Greece also remains in the headlines, as Greek Prime Minister Tsipras is visiting Moscow where he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the search for as many European allies as possible.
Later in the US session, the latest FOMC minutes are expected to be instructive in the context of the thinking behind last month’s decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to drop the word "patience" from their guidance language, while at the same time revising down their growth and inflation forecasts.
"Since that meeting we’ve heard a lot from Fed officials about their thoughts vis-a-vis the timing of a rate hike, but that was before last Friday’s payrolls number. There is the likelihood given some of the comments in the last couple of days from the Atlanta Fed’s Dennis Lockhart, and the New York Fed’s Bill Dudley, that policymakers are likely to tread slightly more carefully in the coming days and weeks and that in that context, the contents of tonight’s minutes are likely to be stale, and out of date," Michael Hewson from CMC Markets wrote in a research note on Wednesday.
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EURUSD fell on yesterday session on above average volume and closed near the low of the day. The pair in the short-term is still respecting the upward trend line and making higher lows.
All eyes turned to the FOMC minutes later today and one of two things can happen, a Hawkish comment setting the date for interest rate hike and pushing the EURUSD to year lows or a Dovish approach that may pull the pair to the 1.1034 resistance zone.
great. thank you for the news.
German Trade Surplus Increases in February
The euro area's number one economy posted a higher trade surplus in the second month of 2015, according to the latest report from the nation's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) released on Thursday.
Germany's foreign trade, one of the components of the country's current account, generated a non-seasonally adjusted surplus of €19.2 billion in the reported period, up from €15.9 billion registered in the previous month. Analysts had predicted a surplus of €19.0 billion.
Moreover, Destatis reported that exports rose 3.9% to €95.7 billion in February, measured on a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis, while imports advanced 0.8% to €76.5 billion.
After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports rose by 1.5% and imports by 1.8% compared with January 2015.
Furthermore, according to provisional results from Deutsche Bundesbank, the country's current account - defined as the sum of the balance of trade, net income from abroad and net current transfers - rose to €16.6 billion, compared with a downwardly revised €15.9 billion in the preceding month. Economists had expected a reading of €17.5 billion.
EURUSD fell on yesterday session after the release of the latest FOMC Minutes, as they were perceived slightly less dovish and a June rate hike is still possible. So we may expect the resumption of the downward trend to the next target at 1.0680.
Euro Zone Shows Current Account Surplus in 2014: ECB
The current account of the euro zone showed a surplus of €91.8 billion in the last quarter of 2014, compared with €78.9 billion in the last quarter of 2013, the European Central Bank (ECB) said in a press release published on Thursday .
For the whole of 2014, the current account of the euro zone showed a surplus of €212.7 billion or 2.1% of GDP.
"The increase in the current account surplus was due to increases in the surpluses for goods (from €60.0 billion to €81.1 billion) and primary income (from €29.5 billion to €30.3 billion). These developments were partly offset by a decrease in the surplus for services (from €18.7 billion to €12.8 billion) and by an increase in the deficit for secondary income (from €29.3 to €32.4 billion)," the ECB said.
"The developments in services were broadly explained by a deterioration of the balances for all major components, with the exception of telecommunication, computer and information services, where the surplus rose from €10.6 billion to €12.2 billion," while "the increase in the primary income surplus was driven by a decrease in the investment income deficit for portfolio investment, while all other primary income components remained broadly unchanged," the bank elaborated.
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EUR/USD: Greenback Firms Up After Jobless Claims
The buck inched up versus the common euro zone currency on Thursday in reaction to the weekly jobless claims report that slightly beat forecast. Moreover, the dollar managed to strengthen after Wednesday's FOMC minutes.
The greenback ticked up 0.14% to $1.0764 against the euro on Thursday, after US jobless claims rose to 281,000 in the week ending April 4, a deterioration from 267,000 a week before.
Each labor report is now being patiently scanned, as traders search for a lead on when the Fed will raise its rates.
The dollar climbed after Wednesday's FOMC minutes showed that the central bank is still on track to hike rates this year, although it might not happen in June, but rather later in the year.
"Further improvement in the labor market, a stabilization of energy prices, and a leveling out of the foreign exchange value of the dollar were all seen as helpful in establishing confidence that inflation would turn up," the minutes showed.
"Comments from Fed officials this week and the minutes to the March FOMC meeting have seen Fed rate hike expectations brought forward from the extremes reached following Friday’s jobs report. The minutes on Wednesday suggested the FOMC remains inclined to begin hiking rates in 2015, with debate seemingly centering on whether to begin in June or later in the year. The meeting occurred before last week’s soft employment report, but in a speech Wednesday, New York Fed President Dudley asserted that June remained 'on the table' as a possible lift-off date even if the odds of a June hike had been reduced by the soft data," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a research note on Thursday.
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France Industrial Production Flat in Feb
Industrial output in France remained flat in February, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) reported on Friday.
Factory production in the second largest economy in the euro area remained unchanged in February when measured on a monthly basis, after a revised 0.3% advance in January. Analysts had expected a 0.1% fall.
Measured over the year, industrial output grew 0.6% the reported period, compared to the previous month's revised 0.5% advance. Markets had bet on 0.5% growth.
Meanwhile, manufacturing production was also flat, after giving up a revised 0.3% a month earlier, while analysts had expected a 0.6% gain.
Manufacturing PMI
March’s manufacturing data from France showed the ongoing contraction in the sector. The final manufacturing PMI in France came in at 48.8 in the third month of the year, beating the flash print of 48.2 and better than the final 47.6 seen in February.
Although the downturn in France’s manufacturing sector eased at the end of Q1, with slower drops in output and new orders recorded in March, there remains little sign of a recovery in the offing, with the euro’s recent decline failing to prevent a further drop in new export orders.
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