Eur/usd - page 201
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EUR/USD moved high after finding support near the 1.2406 line (S1). However, the movement has been overcome by the moving average of 200 times, which proved to be a good resistance to the recent price action.
Would expect a break above the moving average of 200 periods trigger more increases extensions.
On the daily chart, there are maximum and minimum lower, below the moving averages 50 and 200 days, and this keeps the downward trend overall.
The positive difference between the daily momentum studies and the price is still intact, indicating that the downward trend in long-term is losing momentum, allowing the EUR negotiate corrective way up.
R3 - 1.25350
R2 - 1.25067
R1 - 1.24708
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24425
S1 - 1.24066
S2 - 1.23783
S3 - 1.23424
Today was a good day as soon as the price broke 1.2480. my position got target 50 pips in less than 30 minutes. now I will wait a break over 1.2575 which is a strong resistance or under 1.2420
EU to 'ban investment in Crimea'
The European Union is to ban all investment in Crimea, annexed by Russia in March, to keep up the pressure on Moscow and show that the issue is not being forgotten, EU diplomatic sources said Tuesday.
The export of EU-made goods for the transport, telecom, energy and oil and gas exploration sectors in Crimea will also be halted, the sources said.
In addition, tourism services will be banned and cruise ships will be barred from calling at Crimean ports, they said.
The EU's 28 member states are expected to formally endorse the measures on Thursday when EU leaders meet in Brussels for a regular summit meeting.
The latest sanctions reflect "the continued policy of not recognising the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia," one of the diplomatic sources said.
"We have not forgotten the Crimea problem even if the focus has been on the fighting in the east of Ukraine," the source said.
"We remain extremely concerned by the situation in Crimea."
As the Ukraine crisis has deepened, the EU has imposed asset freezes and visa bans on Russian and Ukrainian figures held responsible, including those implicated in Crimea's annexation.
The July shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines jet over eastern Ukraine, blamed on pro-Moscow rebels using a Russian-made missile, stung Brussels to extend the sanctions to include key economic sectors such as finance, energy and defence.
Some EU states, notably Germany and Italy, were reluctant to take that step and diplomats say there is now little appetite to do much more amid calls for the EU to review overall ties with Russia.
Against this backdrop, there are growing concerns that Crimea, which Russian President Vladimir Putin considers "sacred territory" never to be surrendered, could slip down the agenda to become a fait accompli the West will not challenge.
source
EURUSD rose during the course of yesterday session, but lost steam just above the 1.25 handle. A break below the yesterday low we should see sellers coming into the marker and could then head to the 1.2250. The yesterday close above 1.25 handle may trigger a short squeeze.
Euro-zone final November inflation confirmed at 0.3%
No surprise in the final inflation read for November: a rock bottom level of 0.3% is confirmed. Core CPI is confirmed at 0.7%.
EUR/USD is ticking a few pips lower, but this is just a continuation of the trend that began earlier in the day rather than a reaction to the news.
The euro-zone was expected to confirm the initial inflation reads which were at the lowest levels in the cycle: 0.3% in headline CPI and 0.7% in core CPI. The fall in oil prices is far from being fully reflected in this report, but we can expect December’s numbers to be significantly lower, especially in headline inflation.
EUR/USD was on the fall towards the publication, mostly due to dollar strength. The pair traded just above support at 1.2450.
The ECB said it is ready to act early in 2015, and perhaps launch an outright Quantitative Easing program. The recent TLTRO auction came out below expectations and raises the pressure on the central banks.
EUR Tumbles As ECB Coeure (Once Again) Signals Sovereign QE Is Coming
Just two weeks after Germnay reported that Draghi was facing mutiny and Benoit Coeure was firmly against the ECB undertaking Sovereign QE, The WSJ reports today that the very same ECB board member sees a "broad consensus around the table in the governing council that we need to do more to raise inflation and boost the economy." This of course has been interpreted by the market as meaning sovereign QE though there is no mention of an agreement on what "more" is.
As The WSJ reports,
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Coeuré also provided details of the ECB’s plans to publish minutes of its policy meetings starting next year, saying the accounts should be released four weeks after meetings and will be “substantial” in providing the balance of views among officials.
“I see a broad consensus around the table in the governing council that we need to do more” to raise inflation and boost the economy, Mr. Coeuré said in the interview, conducted late on Tuesday at his office in the ECB’s new skyscraper headquarters in Frankfurt.
...
“It’s not that much of a question on whether we should do something, but more a discussion on the best way to do it,” he said. “If we want to do more we obviously have to reach out to market segments where there is more liquidity and that is why the government bond market is the baseline option, which doesn’t necessarily mean we would only buy government bonds.”
“What has changed is the confirmation of low growth and low inflation, and the oil shock which is obviously new,” Mr. Coeuré said.
And then there is this utter bullshit smoke and mirrors...
“We were able to design [OMT] the right way because we took concerns on board, and we are now going through exactly the same process,” Mr. Coeuré said. “The more governors standing by this new instrument, the safer you feel that the pros and cons have been weighed in the right way.”
So why not show the world the documentation?
* * *
Now ECB QE is even more priced-in-er-er...
source
Europe must stick to 'bitter' sanctions on Russia: German finance minister
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday that Europe had no choice but to keep up pressure on Russia over the Ukraine crisis via sanctions, though the door remained open to dialogue.
Reiterating the German government's stance that the standoff with Moscow over its annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in eastern Ukraine could not be resolved by military means only, he said: "Therefore only the bitter path of sanctions remains."
But Schaeuble told a business conference in Berlin that the EU would prefer cooperation and its "hand is still outstretched" in the offer of dialogue.
Schaeuble said Vladimir Putin deserved respectful treatment as Russian president, but said he did not share the view of ex-chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, a friend of Putin, who when asked in 2004 if the Russian was a "flawless democrat" replied: "I am convinced he is." The minister did not elaborate.
EU leaders will discuss Russia's currency crisis at a summit on Thursday amid concern about the impact on their economies but they will not relax the sanctions and the EU is expected to widen a ban on investment in Crimea this week.
Russia has responded to EU and U.S. sanctions against its financial, defense and energy sectors by banning most Western food imports, hurting EU farmers and some other sectors.
source
EUR / USD moved on a high with the preliminary PMI compound block within Euro to rise to 51.7 in December from 51.1 earlier, beating expectations of 51.1 market.
The EUR / USD had an additional boost after the second consecutive increase in the expectations index.
This may facilitate the continuation of an upward corrective phase.
R3 - 1.26616
R2 - 1.25885
R1 - 1.24659
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.23928
S1 - 1.22702
S2 - 1.21971
S3 - 1.20745
EU summit to discuss crisis-hit Russia, economic plan
EU leaders on Thursday will discuss tense relations with Russia and punishing sanctions imposed over Moscow's actions in Ukraine at a summit led for the first time by Poland's Kremlin-wary former premier Donald Tusk.
Leaders will also back a huge 315-billion-euro ($380-billion) investment plan unveiled last month by new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker -- although hard cash is expected to be lacking to help kickstart Europe's economy.
"The Russian economic situation will be in everyone's minds," a European diplomat said, after a month that has seen Russia spend heavily to stop the collapse of the ruble triggered by falling oil prices and sanctions imposed by Brussels and Washington.
Tusk -- who on December 1 took up his duties as president of the European Council grouping the 28 EU member states -- has set aside talks on a "strategy" for Moscow, several European sources said.
No new sanctions will be decided at the summit in Brussels as the EU "is not in a hardening mindset," one diplomat said, while another added: "We don't want to provoke Putin too much."
"We must pursue the political work," a French source said.
On Tuesday, French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a conference call with presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, agreeing that peace talks to end months of bloody rebellion in the east of the ex-Soviet republic should resume "as soon as possible".
The EU leaders, who want to tread a line between firmness and dialogue with Moscow, must reflect on how to follow up on the heavy sanctions agreed over the summer after the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.
"Everybody agrees that the sanctions have an impact but that they are not an end in themselves," a European source said, stressing that Russia has not changed its policy one bit on Ukraine.
Western powers have repeatedly accused Russia of stoking the Ukraine crisis, which has killed at least 4,700 people and displaced close to one million, by supplying weapons and troops to the rebels -- Moscow denies this.
Tusk said: "The crisis in Ukraine remains a serious concern.... It is therefore important that we come out of this meeting with a clear political message."
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EURUSD could not hold above the 1.25 level and fell during the yesterday session. The fall was quite substantial and the pair is ready to test the low of the year at 1.2246. In the short-term rallies will continue to offer selling opportunities.