Nzdusd - page 29

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NZD/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1 The New Zealand dollar drifted in range on the week of Christmas and made its way up. There are no events this week, but markets still move. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand trade balance came out a bit better than expected, and that gave some support to the kiwi. However, it enjoyed the weakness of the greenback to ride higher.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of January 4, 2016 The NZD/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week but as you can see struggled at the 0.69 level. This is an area that has been resistive previously, and the fact that we formed a shooting star here of course is intriguing. However, the one thing that I am looking at in this chart is the fact that the most recent low is much higher than the one previous to it. In a sense, you could make an argument for some type of ascending triangle, but the one thing that I do think is relatively obvious in this pair is the fact that the 0.69 level is going to be very important.

Because of this, we can get above the 0.69 level, the market should then reach towards the 0.70 handle, and then the 0.75 level. The New Zealand dollar of course is going to continue to struggle in general as long as commodity markets do, so we will have to keep an eye on those as well. The New Zealand dollar is essentially a “barometer” on the overall risk appetitive futures traders, as it is a commodity driven economy.

If we do fall from here, it’s not likely that we are going to break down drastically. The 0.65 level should be rather supportive, so even a break down below the bottom of the shooting star isn’t quite enough to get us aggressively short, rather preferring to trade smaller than usual positions due to the fact that we will more than likely have quite a bit of volatility.

The first couple of weeks will probably be fairly choppy for the year, but once the liquidity comes back completely, we might be able to get some type of clear signal as to the overall attitude of this market going forward. The one thing that I do now is that the US dollar is highly favored against most currencies, so that of course is going to continue to put a bit of a drag on the air.

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New Zealand - November Building Permits: +1.8% m/m (prior +5.1% m/m) November Building Permits, aka building consents: +1.8% m/m

  • prior was +5.1%

    • Comments from Statistics New Zealand

  • The number of new dwellings consented reached a 10-year high in November
  • The trend (which gives a longer-term picture of movements) increased 0.6 percent, and is at its highest level since July 2004
  • "Dwelling consents were up 17 percent from the year before, driven by increases for houses and retirement village units."
  • A total of 2,831 new dwellings were consented in November 2015 - the most in a month since March 2005, when 3,027 new dwellings were consented
 

Fitch revises New Zealand outlook lower to Stable from Positive US ratings agency out with their latest NZ review

  • sovereign rating affirmed at AA
  • weaker growth prospects have translated into a slower than expected path of debt reduction
  • expects GDP to pick up to +2.4% and +2.6% in 2016 and 2017

NZDUSD takes a quick dip below 0.6440 from 0.6455

 

RBNZ gave the dovish statements yesterday which hammered the strength of kiwi.. currently, kiwi is picking up steadily on the back of increasing oil prices and better performance by commodities. Although, NZD is trying consolidate as the chinese market is also not giving any good results.

 

i think NZD will pick up gradually...

 

The NZDUSD has not been able to confirm breakout of the 0.6500 level, it may try to go back down.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of February 1, 2016 The NZD/USD pair initially fell during the week, but found enough support at the 0.64 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is a positive sign, so having said that it’s very likely that the markets will trying to continue to consolidate. However, it is a very back-and-forth type of situation, so longer-term traders may be a bit hesitant to get involved. A break down below the bottom of a hammer though, that would be a very negative sign that we could start selling.

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Kiwi Defends $0.67, Awaits US Payrolls The pair was trading flat on Friday as investors were waiting for the US labor market data, due later in the day. Therefore, volatility was low during the London session and the pair was oscillating around $0.6715 for most of the day.

Early in Friday's North American session, investors will focus on the US labor market figures. The unemployment rate should stay at 5.0%, with the change in nonfarm payrolls projected to drop from 292,000 to 190,000, but still maintaining a very healthy jobs growth. Average hourly earnings should be the most important figures from this report.

"We have the feeling that the market is paying less and less attention to the data from the job market as it seems there is a sort of disconnection between the upbeat stats from the job market and the rest of the economic data, which present a much gloomier picture. Apart from this we are convinced that a solid pick-up in wage pressure would definitely help to boost USD demand," Arnaud Masset, market strategist at Swissquote bank said on Friday.

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Surprised by this weeks move.

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