Nzdusd - page 25

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RBNZ says international forces remain an influence on economy

Headlines crossing the wires ... comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Annual ReportFull text can be found from here: Reserve Bank Annual Report 2014-15

RBNZ Governor Wheeler in the report:

  • New Zealand's economy has performed better than many advanced economies in recent years
  • International forces remain a major influence on the economy
  • Include large declines in commodity prices, especially dairy and oil, low international interest rates, and record net immigration levels
 

NZ Building Consents (Permits) for August: -4.9% m/m (vs. +20.4% m/m prior)

New Zealand Building Consents for August down 4.9% m/m

  • prior was +20.3%, revised from +20.4% m/m

A volatile data set this one, and some give back after the huge jump last month was to be expected. Building approvals can be 'lumpy' with multi-unit developments in and out of the data on a monthly basis.

 

NZD/USD: Kiwi Hits Intraday High as PMI Limits Buck's Strength

The kiwi increased against the greenback on Tuesday, extending its two-day leap as investors digested less business pessimism in New Zealand, while the buck had to handle the unexpectedly weaker Chicago PMI update.

As seen on the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair once again approached its major monthly resistance at $0.64, which managed to hold the cross despite several short-lived spikes, thus preventing kiwi from any significant rebound from the six-year bottom at $0.6233 reached on September 23.

Traders are now awaiting another speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen, who spoke last Thursday, with the anticipation of further light shed on the rate hike riddle.

"If she wants to clarify anything, post this bout of risk-aversion, then she may tweak the message from last Thursday," National Australia Bank senior currency strategist Emma Lawson offered.

On Wednesday, the kiwi added 0.77% to trade at $0.6394 against the greenback, rising from an intraday low at $0.6333, while the US dollar index gained 0.45% to 96.50 points.

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The NZDUSD is still struggling to break above the 0.6400 level. The level has proven to be a very good resistance on the Kiwi. To the downside, the 0.6200 level may still be its most important support.

 

Economic data due from New Zealand and Australia today

The big event today is the speech from ECB President Draghi due at 0130GMTI'm so excited I can hardly sleep (hey, it's the Asian timezone, that's what we do, K?)

0000GMT - New Zealand - ANZ Commodity Price Index for September, prior was -5.2%

0130GMT - Australia - Retail Sales for August

  • expected is +0.4%, prior was -0.1% (just on that 'prior' ... much weaker than expected for July but there is expected to be a bounce back this month. The danger is probably a miss on retail sales today which would be a negative for the AUD. On expectations, or a beat should give it a boost, but I don't expect the pop in the AUD would be to the same extent as a drop in the case of a miss)
 

New Zealand Commodity Prices Rise In September

New Zealand's commodity prices increased for the first time in six months in September, driven by the increases in dairy and aluminium prices, the results of a survey by ANZ showed Friday.

The ANZ commodity prize index climbed 5.5 percent month-over-month in September, reversing a 5.2 percent decrease in the previous month.

Dairy prices grew sharply by 15.1 percent monthly in September after falling in the previous five months. Aluminium prices also went up 2.5 percent.

At the same time, prices for other commodity groups declined in September. Meat price index went down 2.6 percent and prices in the horticulture sub-group dropped by 0.3 percent.

The NZD ANZ commodity price index surged 9.3 percent monthly in September, in contrast to a 4.0 percent fall in August.

On an annual basis, the NZD ANZ commodity price index rose 2.7 percent in September, reversing a 4.6 decrease in the preceding month.

source

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of September 28, 2015

The NZD/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a bit of a hammer. That hammer of course is a positive sign, but we still see the 0.65 level above as resistance, and we most certainly see resistance extending all the way to at least the 0.6750 level. Ultimately, although it looks positive at the moment, we think there’s far too much noise above to go long. We will simply sit on the sidelines at the moment.

source

 

NZD/USD Forecast – Oct. 5-9

The New Zealand dollar managed to trade higher, enjoying some calm in markets. The bi-weekly dairy auction is the key event Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The New Zealand dollar had the most muted reaction to the global gloom that saw commodity currencies sell off sharply. Its Australian and Canadian peers fared worse. When the mood improved, the kiwi gained. Also the mood in New Zealand improved with a stronger ANZ Business Confidence read. In the US, data was very disappointing, with a very poor jobs report. This doesn’t necessary mean a rise of the kiwi as it draws dark clouds on the global economy.

  • NZIER Business Confidence: Monday, 21:00. This is a quarterly indicator, making every publication quite powerful. After sitting on high ground for many quarters, Q2 saw a sharp fall from 23 to only 5 points, reflecting only minor optimism. Will it fall to negative ground this time?
  • GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the European afternoon. This bi-weekly measure of New Zealand’s most critical export, milk and the other dairy products, always rocks the kiwi despite its volatile nature. After around 10 consecutive falls, we have seen a rebound in the past 3, including a 16.5% rise in the last auction.
 

NZD/USD: Kiwi Leaps to 6-Wk High as Milk Boosts Previous Rally

The kiwi rose against the greenback on Tuesday, following news from Fonterra's dairy auction which showed another buoyant reading that was cheered by milk producers in New Zealand.

In addition, risk-on appetite flourished as traders believed in a postponed interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), following a mediocre non-farm payrolls update in September. Therefore, the greenback showed some weakness as the previous anticipation of 2015 monetary tightening dealt with serious doubts.

"People are still very skeptical about the Fed raising rates this year," Macquarie Ltd interest rates and currency strategist Thierry Albert Wizman mentioned.

In the afternoon, the kiwi spiked 0.87% to $0.6541 against the buck, setting the new six-week high at $0.6547. Looking at the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair managed to escape from the steep downtrend after forming the double bottom at the six-year low of $0.6233, seen at the end of September.

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NZD/USD: Kiwi Boosted by Risk Sentiment, Oil Price

The kiwi dollar hit a new six-week high on Wednesday, profiting mainly from risk on sentiment and the rise in the oil price, which hovered near a one-month high and extended gains from the previous session.

The kiwi dollar shot higher on Wednesday, trading 1.07% elevated at $0.6613 against the buck, with an intraday high of $0.6634 - the highest level against its US counterpart since late August this year.

Furthermore, the kiwi remains elevated on the back of a stronger Australian dollar, and ignoring a weak domestic business confidence survey. Moreover, Asian markets and commodity currencies seem to be reacting positively to improved sentiment around China and decreased dollar strength.

The kiwi was also favored by yesterday's diary auction, when the Global Dairy Trade Price Index jumped 9.9% at Fonterra's auction, climbing for the fourth event in a row. The average price moved up to $2,834, rising from the $2,568 booked previously.

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