NZD/USD, EUR/NZD: Drivers & Targets - Goldman Sachs - General

Alexander Londono 2016.02.10 02:52 #291

Interesting opinions from all of you, always trying to keep an open mind.

Alexander Londono 2016.02.17 02:22 #292

The NZDUSD breaks below the 0.6600 level, keeping a bearish momentum. The 0.6400 level could be its next support.

thenews 2016.02.18 14:37 #293

NZD/USD, EUR/NZD: Drivers & Targets - Goldman Sachs FX Forecasts: We retain our NZD/US$ forecasts at 0.68, 0.64 and 0.62 on a 3-, 6- and 12-month view. This implies €/NZD at 1.53, 1.56 and 1.53.

Motivation for Our FX View: We see further downside risk to the NZD over the coming year, against the backdrop of ongoing weakness in dairy prices, a further deterioration in NZ’s trade position and broad-based USD strength as the Fed raises rates. On balance, we characterise the risks to our forecasts as skewed to the downside, but are mindful of the relative resilience of NZ domestic demand to date and the risk that there are further delays in the Fed’s tightening cycle.

Monetary Policy and FX Framework: The RBNZ is a flexible inflation targeter. The RBNZ Governor is the sole decision maker on the Official Cash Rate (OCR), and contracted to achieve "future CPI inflation outcomes between 1 per cent and 3 per cent on average over the medium term, with a focus on keeping future average inflation near the 2 per cent target midpoint". The FX regime is a free float. Growth/Inflation Outlook: GDP expanded by a solid +0.9%qoq in 2015Q3, taking the annual rate of growth to +2.3%yoy. Notwithstanding the deceleration in growth from a peak of +4.1%yoy in 2014Q4, the NZ economy appears to be navigating through the dairy-led income shock with some resilience. Nevertheless, national disposal income growth remains weak, lower dairy prices have yet to fully work their way through the economy, and tailwinds from the postearthquake rebuild and prior strength in net migration may start to taper over time. Overall, we expect an extended period of slightly sub-trend growth in NZ, with inflation pressure likely to remain contained for some time on the back of lower oil prices and weak global/tradables inflation.

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thenews 2016.02.20 20:00 #294

NZD/USD forecast for the week of February 22, 2016 The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but ultimately settled on a hammer. This of course is a somewhat supportive candle, and at this point in time we could very well bounce. However, when we look at the overall totality of the market, we believe that we are in the middle of a larger consolidation area between the 0.64 level on the bottom and the 0.69 level on the top. At this point, we are not willing to put any real money to risk at this juncture, and believe that short-term traders will continue to run the New Zealand dollar.

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thenews 2016.02.28 08:20 #295

NZD/USD forecast for the week of February 29, 2016 The NZD/USD pair initially rose during the course of the week, but turned back around to form a massive shooting star. That being the case, the market looks as if we could pull back a little bit and quite frankly there’s so much volatility and noise in this area that we have no interest whatsoever in trading from the longer-term perspective, and quite frankly maybe not even the shorter-term timeframe. Keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive to commodity markets, so we will of course have to pay attention to what’s going on there.

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thenews 2016.02.28 21:43 #296

New Zealand data - Building Consents (January): -8.2% m/m (prior +2.3%) New Zealand - Building approvals for January -8.2% m/m (prior +2.3%)

Says Stats NZ:

The actual value of building work consented in January 2016 was $1.1 billion.

For January 2016 compared with January 2015:

Residential work was up $112 million (17 percent) to $756 million
Non-residential work was down $43 million (12 percent) to $310 million

More:

Nationally, the number of new dwellings consented in January 2016 was almost unchanged from January 2015
Increases in nine regions were offset by a large decrease in Canterbury

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Alexander Londono 2016.03.08 05:08 #297

The 0.6800 could be resistance on the Kiwi, a breakout could take the price to the 0.6881 level.

thenews 2016.03.09 20:20 #298

New Zealand dollar falls more than a cent after surprise RBNZ rate cut RBNZ lowers OCR to 2.25% from 2.50% Few analysts and traders were expecting the RBNZ to cut rates. The surprise move sent NZD/USD to 0.6653 from 0.6775 before the announcement.

The central bank compounded the selling by warning of further rate cuts and saying a further decline in the currency is appropriate.

Trendline support from the January low is suddenly in play.

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thenews 2016.03.21 06:01 #299

NZD/USD: Lower Oil & Dollar Rebound Weighs on Commodity Currencies It is set to be a quiet week on the economic data front across New Zealand, Australia, China and the US, therefore the fate of the New Zealand dollar this week will likely remain at the whim of market sentiment and lower oil prices, which weigh on commodity currencies.

Although the kiwi reached its highest level since the end of last year on Friday at $0.6874, the $0.69 mark seems to represent a strong area of technical resistance. Falling oil prices pushed the kiwi lower on Monday, trading down 0.36% to $0.6761.

Both the kiwi and the aussie pulled back from their multi-month highs, spurred by the biggest two-day fall in the US dollar since 2009 following the dovish Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its economic and inflation projections along with their rate expectations, with the central bank now anticipating only two rate hikes this year, down from four hikes projected in December.

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