Nzdusd - page 26

[thenews]

New Zealand Card spending for September: Retail +0.9% m/m (+0.4 expected)

New Zealand Card spending for SeptemberRetail +0.9% m/m

• expected +0.4% m/m, prior was 0.4%
• The y/y retail spend is up 6.1%

Total +0.7% m/m

• prior was 0.1% m/m

Core retail spending (excludes vehicle-related industries) up 1.2% for September (prior was +1.0 percent in August)

[thenews]

NZD/USD forecast for the week of October 12, 2015

The NZD/USD pair had a very strong week as we broke well above the 0.65 handle. This of course is very bullish but as you can see on this chart we have an orange dashed line at the 0.6750 level, and we need to get above there before we trust a longer-term move higher. We think the next area after that would be 0.70, and at this point in time it does look like it could very well happen. After all, we are closing towards the top of the range which is obviously a bullish sign. With that being said though, we are going to wait to see if we can get above the 0.6750 level before we start buying. Selling isn’t appealing from a longer-term standpoint quite yet.

[thenews]

NZD/USD Forecast – Oct. 12-16

The New Zealand dollar had its time in the sun and advanced very nicely. The inflation data is the most important release. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The NZIER Business Confidence plunged to negative territory: -14 points, showing a gloomy mood in Q3. However, milk prices continued rising, this time by 9.9% and the kiwi certainly took advantage of this. In the US, the situation seems OK but doubts continue regarding the timing of the rate hike.

1. FPI: Sunday, 21:45. While the bi-weekly dairy auction garners more attention, the Food Price Index is also of importance. After a fall of 0.5% in August, stability is on the cards now.
2. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 21:30. This PMI-like indicator has shown solid growth in recent months, with a score of 55 points in August. A small drop is on the cards for September.
3. CPI: Thursday, 21:45. Inflation in New Zealand isn’t going anywhere fast. This is released only once per quarter, making the publication even more important. After a rise of 0.4% in Q2, a drop could be seen for Q3 but expectations stand on a small gain of 0.2%.

source

[thenews]

New Zealand - REINZ September House Sales: +38.3% y/y (prior was +41.7%)

Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) September House Sales data

• Home sales up 38.3% y/y, and up 5.3% m/m
• Median house price up 15.4% y/y (in Auckland prices up 25.4% y/y) and up 4.7% m/m (Auckland up 4.2% m/m)

[Ari Goldman]

I'm waiting for 0.70 and then sell!

[thenews]

NZD/USD: Kiwi Declines as Chinese I/E Snaps Winning Streak

The kiwi declined against the US dollar on Tuesday, stepping down from its three-month high at $0.6742 seen Monday as new Chinese trading balance and exports data brought pressure on commodities - and in turn, the aussie, the kiwi and emerging market currencies.

"The sharp drop in Chinese imports don't augur well for Australia and hence we are seeing the Australian dollar come under pressure," Credit Agricole currency strategist Manuel Oliveri mentioned.

Moreover, the kiwi was heading for the first day in loss since September 28, showing the first serious sign that the momentum that had driven the NZD/USD pair approximately five big figures up from the six-year bottom at $0.6233 at the end of September is vanishing.

On Tuesday, the kiwi decreased 0.39% to $0.6689 against the buck, while the US dollar index was seen 0.03% elevated at $94.92 points, slightly above the three-week bottom at 94.58 reached earlier today.

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[thenews]

NZ data: Manufacturing PMI September: 55.4 (prior 55.1)

Manufacturing PMI (BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index )for September, expanded again to 55.4

• prior 55.1, revised from 55

An NZD positive result, though its often not too much of an immediate FX market mover

-

• Now at its highest since February
• Production at its highest since December 2014
• Improvement in new orders

Comments from BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel:

• Data very robust, especially sales and activity
• A positive for economic growth
• Some higher cost pressures appearing

[thenews]

New Zealand Q3 CPI: 0.3% q/q (0.2% expected) and 0.4% y/y (0.3% expected)

Third quarter CPI from New Zealand data results.A shade above expectations for both the q/q and y/y, sending the NZD up a few points

+0.3% q/q

• expected +0.2%
• prior was +0.4%

+0.4% y/y

• expected +0.3%
• prior was 0.4%

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From StatsNZ:

Annual prices increase 0.4 percent

• The CPI increased 0.4 percent in the year to the September 2015 quarter, following a 0.4 percent increase in the year to the June 2015 quarter.
• Housing and household utility prices were up2.7 percent in the year, with higher prices for newly built houses excluding land (up 5.5 percent), housing rentals (up 2.3 percent), and local authority rates (up 5.9 percent). "The annual increase was influenced by housing-related prices, particularly in Auckland," Mr Pike said. "Auckland prices for new houses excluding land were up 8.5 percent, and housing rentals and rates also increased by more than the national average."
• The CPI measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households.

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[thenews]

NZ Services PMI (September): 59.3 (prior 58.5) NZ performance of services index for September in at an improved 59.3, highest since November 2007

• Prior was 58.5, revised higher from 58.2

BNZ comment that in conjunction with the improvement in the September Manufacturing PMI indicates H2 economic growth in NZ will be stronger than for H1

source

[thenews]

NZD/USD: Kiwi Enjoys Labor Day as Data Keeps Buck Tense The kiwi managed to rise against the US dollar on Monday, showing its strength despite the Labor Day bank holiday in New Zealand.

"Globally, the focus right now is on central banks and monetary policy as a whole. Dollar/yen for example was driven higher by a general improvement in risk appetite," Barclays FX strategist Shinichiro Kadota noticed, while describing the environment on forex global markets, following dovish actions by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) along with the European Central Bank (ECB).

However, the kiwi struggled for momentum from the bigger picture, as the NZD/USD pair has experienced an approximately 200 pips setback, falling from the four-month high at $0.6904. Fortunately, the cross had found some ground by the end of the last week, as bulls regrouped amid significant support from risk-on trades induced by the latest monetary easing.

On Monday, the NZD/USD was trading with a gain of 0.70% at $0.6788, while the US dollar index lost 0.26% to 96.93 points.

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