Very effective trading system.

 

Hi guys,

I need help for a friend of a friend of mine.

Before anything if you find the question stupid, it's fine just answer the question seriously. ~I DO NOT sell anything just need feedback.~

He has a super effective system and could get results way above average return per month with 1% per trade.

His fear is that the broker will try to figure out what he is doing and either copy or tail~front running. All those things do not seems to be a problem in forex but he is afraid to lose the edge if they figure out how he does what he does.

At the moment he is losing here and there on purpose to keep a really good but nothing amazing results and win/loss ratio. Yes, I know for a fact that this is true. I see the statement everyday.

Now these are my questions:

What would you do in his situation?

Would you trade to the max return possible and make your presence notice??

What could a broker do with your records??

Could just the person that manage your account illegally copy your statement and study it?

Would you keep monthly return at average pace?

Any other serious comment will be greatly appreciated.

Thank you.

P.S. the broker is a very renown ecn broker.

 

Bump.....???

 

Nobody????

 
newdigital:
Hi hardball,

I am not sure that I understand sorry ...

I do not think that broker will do something with the record.

I think - it depends on money/deposit and on the broker itself. Of course, if your friend will deposit 1 billion dollars to very small non-regulated broker so .... everything may be possible

Theoretically - yes.

But ...who will manage, and who will study and why?

The statement/record can be strudied. But it also depends on how your friend is trading, which timeframe and so on. The main question for it - why anyone should study the statement? In most of the cases - there are no reasons to study for it. There are as many trading systems with good statement for year or more so - no need to study ...

Keep monthly return in average rate? I think - it is impossible in forex. Sometimes, when the person is trading on D1 or W1 timeframe having just 1 or few trades in a month so - yes, may be possible. But in almost all the cases - impossible.

Bank can keep monthly return ... just deposit money to the bank account and receive yearly return as 3% for example every year ...

As to 'keep monthly return so - it may be evaluated by Sharpe Ratio.

In our example with the bank - Sharpe Ration will be maximal one. Because yearly return will be the same every year (or monthly return will be the same every month). As I remember - it is 3 as a maximum.

But in forex ... I do not think that it is possible to have same return for every month or every year.

For example - there are Sharpe Ratio, Modified Sharpe Ratio and Annual Sharpe Ratio (just different by calculation only). Sharp Ration is telling us about stability (consistently) of the profit.

For example,

- one trader did 0.1% for the 1st month, 0.1% for the second month and 0.1% for the 3rd month. Sharpe Ratio will be very hight. Because it is stable income every month. Same with banks for example if you will deposit money to them.

- second trader did 0.1% return for the 1st month, 0.002% return for the second month and 2.85% for the 3rd month. Sharpe Ratio will be low. Because this trader is not giving stable consistent profit for every period of time.

So, the first trader, most probably, just deposited money to the bank And second trader, may be - trading forex.

It also depends on timeframe for trading (your friend is using some chart as H1 timeframe, or D1 timeframe, right):

H1 timeframe:

- Sharpe Ration may be 0.02

- Modified Sharpe Ration may be 1.7

- Annual Sharpe Ration may be 1.4

H4 timeframe:

- 0.03

- 1.7

- 1.40

D1:

- 0.09

- 1.7

- 1.64

W1:

- 0.21

- 1.7

- 1.7

W10:

- 1

- 2

- 2.5

So ... in case - your friend is trading W10 timeframe - his annual return may be the same for every year. If he is trading H1 timeframe so his monthly and yearly return will not be the same by every month and every year (because the value of Sharpe is too far from 3).

More information is on the following links:

Mathematics in Trading: How to Estimate Trade Results - MQL4 Articles

The Sharpe Ratio

===============

To make is shorter: market is changed all the time so the trading system will have losing months, and winning months, losing years and winning years, and never - same return for every year or month. Because it is forex market.

But as I said - I am not sure that I understood your questions so - if my reply will not help so sorry.

What i meant by copy statement is to try to figure out how he does what he does and when he does it.

Thank you for your reply. What he is afraid of is of someone copying his system.

I can tell you he makes a super high monthly returns with low risk and no down month in the past year since he tweaked his system. He just wanted to know if there is a down side in doing so or keeping that up. If someone start using your system your system will stop working.

He has won 2 trading awards and turn them down to stay anonymous.

Maybe he is being too paranoid about it... but just wanted to get more info for him.

Thank you.

Oh, I forgot his account is over 5 mil.

 

1) A broker can not see what strategy that he is using. Even by looking to a statement.

2) There are thousands of people trading systems that make money. So if he thinks that he invented the wheel or warm water then he has a lot to learn.

3) If he trades a TRUE ECN broker then that broker does not give a d*mn what system that he trades. They earn their money on the commission per each trade and that is it. They do not take any counter positions like the market makers do. So they could not care less if he makes or looses money.

4) All brokers have seen people comming with systems that make a lot of money over a longer period of time and then suddenly loos all the profits over a very short period of time. Do you really think that a broker will jump on each system that makes money ?

Take a look on myfxbook and you will see people on severall thousands percentage profit over the last 6 moths. Will they still be there in an other 6 months ?...probably not

Tell your friend that his system is as good as any other good system out there ( or as bad). And that he watched to many movies about the CIA and the KGB and conspirecies.

Friendly regards...iGoR

 

Hi hardball,

I am not sure that I understand sorry ...

What could a broker do with your records??

I do not think that broker will do something with the record.

I think - it depends on money/deposit and on the broker itself. Of course, if your friend will deposit 1 billion dollars to very small non-regulated broker so .... everything may be possible

Could just the person that manage your account illegally copy your statement and study it?

Theoretically - yes.

But ...who will manage, and who will study and why?

The statement/record can be studied. But it also depends on how your friend is trading, which timeframe and so on. The main question for it - why anyone should study the statement? In most of the cases - there are no reasons to study for it. There are as many trading systems with good statement for year or more so - no need to study ...

Would you keep monthly return at average pace?

Keep monthly return in average rate? I think - it is impossible in forex. Sometimes, when the person is trading on D1 or W1 timeframe having just 1 or few trades in a month so - yes, may be possible. But in almost all the cases - impossible.

Bank can keep monthly return ... just deposit money to the bank account and receive yearly return as 3% for example every year ...

As to 'keep monthly return so - it may be evaluated by Sharpe Ratio.

In our example with the bank - Sharpe Ration will be maximal one. Because yearly return will be the same every year (or monthly return will be the same every month). As I remember - it is 3 by Sharpe value as a maximum.

But in forex ... I do not think that it is possible to have same return for every month or every year.

For example - there are Sharpe Ratio, Modified Sharpe Ratio and Annual Sharpe Ratio (just different by calculation only). Sharp Ration is telling us about stability (consistently) of the profit.

For example,

- one trader did 0.1% for the 1st month, 0.1% for the second month and 0.1% for the 3rd month. Sharpe Ratio will be very hight. Because it is stable income every month. Same with banks for example if you will deposit money to them.

- second trader did 0.1% return for the 1st month, 0.002% return for the second month and 2.85% for the 3rd month. Sharpe Ratio will be low. Because this trader is not giving stable consistent profit for every period of time.

So, the first trader, most probably, just deposited money to the bank And second trader, may be - trading forex.

It also depends on timeframe for trading (your friend is using some chart as H1 timeframe, or D1 timeframe, right):

H1 timeframe:

- Sharpe Ration may be 0.02

- Modified Sharpe Ration may be 1.7

- Annual Sharpe Ration may be 1.4

H4 timeframe:

- 0.03

- 1.7

- 1.40

D1:

- 0.09

- 1.7

- 1.64

W1:

- 0.21

- 1.7

- 1.7

W10:

- 1

- 2

- 2.5

So ... in case - your friend is trading W10 timeframe - his annual return may be the same for every year. If he is trading H1 timeframe so his monthly and yearly return will not be the same by every month and every year (because the value of Sharpe is too far from 3).

More information is on the following links:

Mathematics in Trading: How to Estimate Trade Results - MQL4 Articles

The Sharpe Ratio

===============

To make is shorter: market is changed all the time so the trading system will have losing months, and winning months, losing years and winning years, and never - same return for every year or month. Because it is forex market.

But as I said - I am not sure that I understood your questions so - if my reply will not help so sorry.

 
iGoR:
1) A broker can not see what strategy that he is using. Even by looking to a statement.

2) There are thousands of people trading systems that make money. So if he thinks that he invented the wheel or warm water then he has a lot to learn.

3) If he trades a TRUE ECN broker then that broker does not give a d*mn what system that he trades. They earn their money on the commission per each trade and that is it. They do not take any counter positions like the market makers do. So they could not care less if he makes or looses money.

4) All brokers have seen people comming with systems that make a lot of money over a longer period of time and then suddenly loos all the profits over a very short period of time. Do you really think that a broker will jump on each system that makes money ?

Take a look on myfxbook and you will see people on severall thousands percentage profit over the last 6 moths. Will they still be there in an other 6 months ?...probably not

Tell your friend that his system is as good as any other good system out there ( or as bad). And that he watched to many movies about the CIA and the KGB and conspirecies.

Friendly regards...iGoR

lol thanks for the info.

 

Nice to see he is not unique in making 1000% monthly return!...

 
hardball:
...Oh, I forgot his account is over 5 mil.

5 million dollars for metatrader broker account deposited?

In this case - your friend confused with the forum as most of the forum members do not have such the accounts and can not suggest anything to your friend.

Besides, I am not sure that this forum can help him (I do not think that he came to collect money by managed account, right?)

I think - I should delete this thread sorry.

 

5,000,000 dollars by 1,000% return monthly = 100,000,000 dollars monthly.

Or 1,200,000,000 dollars in 1 year.

How many years did he trade?

 

He doesnt need to or want to manage money. He try to keep his monthly return around 50~100% return he did once made the 1000% mark then he told he went down to two digits for the reasons before stated.

I just wanted to inquired about this maybe somebody knew about the subject.

Reason: