How to filter false signals - page 2
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But then I risk missing the entry :-(
another way to see it
esp during some hours, 50 pips bounds are normal range -- i.e. not trendy move or breakout move
how about you enter buy / sell in REVERSE of what your intuition tell you
I even thought about , not to enter, but put 40pips apart it its breakout direction, then hedge 80pips apart, this way, I also take 40 pips risk , but may enter in the spike, rather than go with the norm of what traders do
say it is flat, seems to go up a bit, then I place a LO 40 pips up== sell it, and put another LO (up); what do you thinks, i.e. at most, I will lock up -40 as loss, but the profit potential is greater == could be frustrating too , as both the LO have very high chance not to be hit, and most people surf it to go down as moving average suggest
But then I risk missing the entry :-(
Hi dvarrin,
Some people want to make you believe that there are secrets in trading.
Let me assure there are none. Trading is 100% statistics and 100%mathematical for each and every system out there.
Let me explain:
I red through your postings that you use indicators that are trend following.
If you trade a trend following system then you just need to accept that the hitrate of trend following setups is +/- 37% in average. And that is for all trend following systems or setups or rules that you would come up with.
How low this can sound but that is absolutly normal. So to be profitable you need to make sure that your reward/risk ratio is high enough to make yourself profitable. In other words, higher then 2.
ex. 37% x +50pips = +1850pips.... 63% x -25pips = -1575pips.
+1850 - 1575 = +275 pips profit.
1) If you are now going to try to filter out some of the losing trades then automaticly you are going to filter out some of the real good trades also(which you need to be profitable).
2) With a trend following system, less then 7% of your trades are going to make that you are profitable. Meaning that the other 93% of your trades are just a breakeven situation or so called a waist of time but that is what you need to accept (and makes trading mentaly so hard and easy to loos your discipline)
3) With trend following systems that have +/- 37% hitrate you can have easely 15 consecutive losses in a row. Even in the casino if you play black or red in the casino (with 50% hitrate and forget the zero for a moment) you can have 15x times red or black in a row. So needles to explain if you only have "only" 37% that 15 consecutive losses is a mathematical fact (which again makes trading mentaly so hard and makes it so easy to loos your discipline).
You just need to accept that losses are connected to trading as breathing is to life.
Friendly regards...iGoR
Some people want to make you believe that there are secrets in trading.
well said
and some people do not want to believe there is no secrets in trading too
to filter false signals. This is a question that exist and bothered me for very long.
A tool I have used to understand that is the Trade Builder. That means entering different conditions simultaneusly to the trade builder and try filtering some of the false ones that the condition will get.
I can only tell that certain condition signals can be for certain market conditions.
If the market for example is static and or spikey ,some oversold- overbought conditions will serve well. If the market start to trend then other conditions with filtered "false signals" may serve much better.
Problems are market can change any time ( almost) especially if there are any news. And of cource you will have some false signals as well.
Every instrument requires it's own conditions to produce successfull signals.
Most important for me are the NEWS, I have noticed that no matter the indicators or whatever you may use, if you get the pulse of the news and when the market is going you will be able to make good money out of it and you may as well risk very little.
Every now and then there is an anouncement, a meeting a speach and there it goes, look at it go back to your charts and check news speaches and anouncements and see how the price responded.. Price may be stuck all the time but after anouncements there is the action I can guarantee you that for Gold and Oil that I trade more often, and you know something ? forget all indicators, price action theories and so on. Is is all psychology cause of the news, that's what it is.
I really start to concentrate on news and how the market responds to that, it seems to me right now that this is the best indicator.
It is an interesting issue as well as I've got checked this kind of element when dealing, repeatedly. My personal finish was which the alerts cant be found actually phony in any way : exactly how might they become? They're purely alerts that happen to be unprofitable. On the other hand, in the event you commence to know that an original indicate converts successful when you have been ended out there, while seems to be for you personally, and then have you tried cutting down how big your own first location as well as later scaling within?
I like another filtering options:
1-st of all I use heikin-ashi candles - awesome bars to se the trend clear.
Then also I draw trend lines and if, for example I want to enter on the trend change, I wait for my trend line to be crossed.
In the meantime I also monitor my indicators, like Stochastic and EMAs. Then when I've got my trend line breached and my indicators tell me to enter, I'm confident my chances to win are high.
Good luck!
I have made my profitable trading strategy by my three years trading experience. Basically, it is a combination of simple moving average and custom indicators of trading broker. Actually, this ECN trading broker has huge collection of custom indicators that helped me very much to make my profitable trading strategy. My trading strategy gives me monthly 45% profit. And, I am happy with my small profit.
thanks...your post helped me to learn how to filter false signals...
I have made my profitable trading strategy by my three years trading experience. Basically, it is a combination of simple moving average and custom indicators of trading broker. Actually, this ECN trading broker has huge collection of custom indicators that helped me very much to make my profitable trading strategy. My trading strategy gives me monthly 45% profit. And, I am happy with my small profit.
Man, guys like you make internet more and more a bad place to be
One filter super8_filter.mq4