Alpha Markets - Simple Forex Trading

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This morning cable is boxed in between our averages. I am looking for a continuation cross north above 1.5880 for a test of 1.5940.

EU & AU are limited with no crosses.

GBPJPY was a cross short last night and the pair is at immediate support at 131.40.

EJ presented a continuation cross and has pulled back towards DP at 115.15. I am looking for a momentum push through 115.40 for a long position with a view to test 115.70

AJ broke the trendline resistance at 81.25 but is some way away from DP for me to look for a long entry.

My focus this session is on GBPUSD & EURJPY.

Have a good morning.

Regards,

Hemal

 

Hi guys,

Just like to take a moment to follow up from my post earlier.

I took both cable and EJ. Unfortunately, the markets weren't kind to me this morning as I got stopped on cable by 0.5 of a pip. That would be up around 4% at the time of writing. EJ was another one I got involved with which I decided to close at breakeven.

Glad to see some of the guys in the room take advantage of cable.

Anyway, an unlucky start for me this morning as I'm 2% down. Not a problem at all.

Hope this helps some of you.

Feel free to shout if you have any questions.

Regards,

Hemal

 

Asking people for a simple Forex strategy is like asking people if they have a simple method for playing poker that will allow you to win playing poker experts. There is no simple Forex strategy that works.

Forex is what we call a "zero sum" game. You are making a bet with someone else about whether a currency will rise or fall. For every winner there has to be a loser. If you are smarter than the average player, you may make money. If you are dumber than the average player, you are likely to lose money. Most of the people making the "bets" in Forex are highly trained professionals at banks and other institutions. You are unlikely to beat them at this game using a "simple" strategy.

Actually Forex is not quite a zero sum game. It's a slightly negative sum game as the Forex broker takes a small percentage each time in the spread. It's a small amount but over a hundred trades, it ends up being a considerable amount of money. So the average player is likely to lose money, and remember the average player is a highly trained professional and probably smarter than you.

There is a lot of luck in Forex, and if you play it, you will have some periods of time where you make money. This is usually because you are having a lucky streak, not because you have suddenly become an expert Forex player. However, most people are unwilling to admit their success is due to luck. They become convinced they have a system that works, and lose a lot of money trying to refine it.

 

I hope you're well and had a good weekend.

As I'm sure you're aware, the USD is trading at a significant support level form 2008.

Cable is trading just below the 1.6 resistance level and AUDUSD is at the highest point I can see on my charts with a double top from .9850 resistance.

With the USD at these levels, we may see a top on cable, AUDUSD and possibly EURUSD. To enter a short trade, I need to see a major cross short and a pullback.

In the meantime, we have continuation crosses long cable and EURUSD. I will be monitoring price action to see if I can obtain a long entry but please be advised that this would require trading in to a longer term resistance level.

Today is a Bank Holiday in Canada, Japan and the U.S. Euro French Production at 7:45 may see some action on the EUR pairs.

I'm looking to keep things tight today as I expect limited momentum and the mentioned state of the greenback

Have a good morning.

 
Interlink2010:
Asking people for a simple Forex strategy is like asking people if they have a simple method for playing poker that will allow you to win playing poker experts. There is no simple Forex strategy that works.

Forex is what we call a "zero sum" game. You are making a bet with someone else about whether a currency will rise or fall. For every winner there has to be a loser. If you are smarter than the average player, you may make money. If you are dumber than the average player, you are likely to lose money. Most of the people making the "bets" in Forex are highly trained professionals at banks and other institutions. You are unlikely to beat them at this game using a "simple" strategy.

Actually Forex is not quite a zero sum game. It's a slightly negative sum game as the Forex broker takes a small percentage each time in the spread. It's a small amount but over a hundred trades, it ends up being a considerable amount of money. So the average player is likely to lose money, and remember the average player is a highly trained professional and probably smarter than you.

There is a lot of luck in Forex, and if you play it, you will have some periods of time where you make money. This is usually because you are having a lucky streak, not because you have suddenly become an expert Forex player. However, most people are unwilling to admit their success is due to luck. They become convinced they have a system that works, and lose a lot of money trying to refine it.

Hi Interlink2010,

Thanks for your message.

Firstly, I'd like to point out that I am not asking anyone for a simple forex strategy but rather explaining what I regard to be a simple method and how I use this method to make my % gains.

As you have touched on the simplicy of a strategy, it would make sense for me to respond to that accordingly. It is my opinion, one does not require a complex strategy to consistantly make money. Of course, simplicity does not mean that it's the best. I do not think one needs the best strategy. I beleive that one needs an objective way to determine a trend, (i use 3 EMA's) and a method to determine a stop loss. Once this is done, the "edge" so to speak is money management. Having worked witha number of students,I have seen people make 100's of pips on trades but still be flat at the end of the month because of excess losses on a few trades. My primary focus is on money and how to risk 2% to make 4%+, ideally in the London open session. Look forward to hearing more from you.

Have a good day.

Regards,

Hemal

 

London Open Summary

Hi, Just like to provide a quick update to follow up on my morning post.

As you know, GBPUSD and AUDUSD are trading at significant resistance levels. For a medium term view, I am looking for my next major cross to the downside before I start attempting short positions.

In the meantime, I was looking for a short term play long on EURUSD & GBPUSD for a quick 40/50 pips. However, having accessed the charts during the first part of trading, I am not convinced that we will see a solid move towards 1.6000 and 1.4000 first thing this morning. As a result, no long trades have been taken and I have backed away from those for now.

Moving forward, I am looking at a possible play on EURJPY for a short position with a view to re-test 113.70. I'm still waiting for confirmation by the way of price moving through 114.30. Defiantly something to keep an eye on today.

As mentioned, little news today with some major players out of the game so may have to wait to get involved.

Enjoy your day.

Regards,

Hemal

 

Morning,

We have a major cross south on EURUSD. I am looking for a way to get short either on the next test of the 15 min 20 or after a break of 1.3840 support.

Euro figures at 7am followed by GBP data at 9:30 amd FOMC minutes later this evening.

Should be an active session where I expect to see some strength in the grenback.

Also keeping an eye on GBPUSD & GBPCHF for a short entry.

Regards,

Hemal

 

Morning all,

I'm looking for the following...

Cable - Continuation cross short or a major cross long.

EURUSD - Looking for a pullback towards the 1.3900/20 level for a long position.

1.3330 short order on EC. 20 pip stop.

EURJPY - Looking for price to hold above the 4hr 20 for a long position

EURCHF- Looking for a continuation cross south

Have a good morning.

 

Good morning ,

I hope you're well.

We have major 60 minute crosses on Cable and EURUSD however we are some distance away from DP this morning. Shame about our entry on EURUSD at 1.3910 not getting hit.

Over to the Yens, we have a 15 minute cross looming on GBPJPY through DP. I intend to take a short position with a stop just above the 4hr 20.

EURJPY is still a cross long but as we discussed yesterday, the pair has faied to make a higher high and in fact it would appear that we have a DT formation. Looks a little tricky to me this morning. Would like to see a break higher, pullback and long or a major cross south.

AUDJPY has failed to make any ground above 81.20 and the pair is now testing the 4hr 20. I'd like to see a 15 minute continuation cross north or a major cross south.

We have no news first thing this morning and given that Asia has been busy, I may have to wait a few hours to get involved.

Euro news and 9am and 11am followed by CAD & U.S. data this afternmoon at 1:30.

Look forward to seeing you in the room.

Regards,

Hemal

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