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AceTraderFx Aug 11: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Aug 2014 00:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.6789
55 HR EMA
1.6812
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
39
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
1.6890 - Last Tue's high
1.6865 - Last Thur's high
1.6812 - Jul 31 low (now res)
Support
1.6767 - Last Fri's low
1.6738 - Jun 11 low
1.6693 - May 29 low
GBP/USD -1.6780... Despite staging a minor recovery to 1.6890 last Tue, the British pound continued its recent decent fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 to a 7-week low of 1.6767 on Fri due to active selling of gbp vs eur & yen.
. Looking at the bigger picture, cable's aforesaid sell off from 1.7192 confirms the LT uptrend fm 1.3500 (2009 bottom) has indeed made a top there n current declining daily technical indicators suggest price is en route to re-test next daily chart obj. at 1.6693 (May's low), break of this key sup wud pressure price to 1.6655, being 61.8% proj. of said fall fm 1.7192 to 1.6812 measured fm 1.6890, as both daily & hourly oscillators' readings wud be in o/sold territory on such a move, steep fall is therefore not envisaged n reckon 1.6523, this is the 'natural' 50% r of the intermediate rise fm 1.5854 to 1.7192), wud contain weakness n bring correction later. Whilst selling cable again on recovery is the way to go, profit shud be taken on subsequent decline. On the upside, only abv 1.6890 wud confirm a temporary low is made but 1.6933 shud cap upside.
. Today, in view of abv analysis, selling cable on intra-day recovery is recommended but 1.6693 shud remain intact n bring minor correction.
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Market Review, New and Views, and data to be released
On the European closing, and despite last Friday's active short-covering rally from as high as 1.3433 on Friday, the single currency ratcheted lower to 1.3381 in New York on Monday on renewed worries about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Germany, the euro zone's largest economy.
Offers are not tipped at 1.3400 and more at 1.3410-20.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.3375-70 with mixture of bides and stops seen at 1.3350.
Last night, U.S. president Obama told Poroshenko in phone call any Russian intervention in Ukraine is "unacceptable".
U.N. chief welcomes "forward movement" toward creation of Iraq gov't, commends Iraqi president for asking Haider Al-Abadi to form government
Tuesdaywill see the release of U.K. BRC retail sales, BOJ meeting minutes, Japan's domestic CGPI, Australia's house prices, NAB business conditions and business confidence, Japan's industrial output, eurozone ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. Redbook and Federal Budget.
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Aug 2014 23:48GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
102.15
55 HR EMA
102.12
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
62
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 retreat
Resistance
102.93 - Last Tue's high
102.46 - Last Thur's high
102.34 - Aug 01 low
Support
101.78 Last Wed's low
101.51 - Last Fri's low
101.32 - Jul 23 low
. USD/JPY- 102.23 ... Despite dlr's gap-up opening to 102.22 in New Zealand on Monday following last Fri's rally fm a 2-week low of 101.51, the pair then traded narrowly below there in Asia n retreated briefly to 102.02 in European morning b4 edging high in New York, price climbed to 102.26 in Australia.
. Looking at the bigger picture, despite the 3-legged rise fm May's 100.81 trough to 103.15 twd end of July, subsequent cross-inspired selloff to 101.51 signals aforesaid upmove has indeed made a top there. As mentioned in previous updates, dlr's MT choppy sideways move inside the established broad 105.45-100.76 range is expected to continue n the decline fm 103.15 adds credence to this view n as long as 102.46 res (last Thur's high) holds, consolidation with initial downside bias wud be seen n below 101.51 wud bring another drop twd 101.26 (being 80.9% r of 100.81-103.15), however, only a firm breach of 100.76/81 sup area wud bring stronger correction of the LT uptrend fm 79.75-105.45 (however, this is not an anticipated scenario).
. Today, in view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day rise in anticipation of a subsequent fall is favoured. Abv 102.46 wud defer n risk 102.93 res.
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
12 Aug 2014 08:44GMT
Russian Defence Ministry says begins military exercises in disputed Kuril islands in Pacific Ocean near Japan - INTERFAX.
12 Aug 2014 07:59GMT
EUR/USD - ....German Econ Ministry statement, quote:
'after strg Q1, economic momentum will slow in Q2;
weaker Eurozone n uncertainty over Russia/Ukraine conflict n middle east are main factors;
underlying positive economic trends still intact.'
French Foreign Minister said 'Russian Humanitarian convoy to Eastern Ukraine may be "cover" for Russian attempt to install presence.'
A piece of news report fm WSJ on Mon worth noting. Despite last Thur's after ECB President Mario Draghi laid out a long list of reasons why the euro should be weaker. The response: the currency has since gained almost 0.6% against the dollar, climbing again above $1.34 Mon.
One reason may be that bets against the euro are already maxed out. Data released Fri by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), covering the week up to Tue August 5, show a big buildup in classic "risk aversion" trades?ositive bets on the buck, in other words.
Bets against the euro were already at their highest level since May 2013 before last week's numbers were in, but they are now at the most bearish point seen since mid-2012. The CFTC numbers cover a tiny slice of the market, but they are a reasonably good proxy for speculative accounts as a whole. With so many accounts pointing in one direction, this means the currency is subject to unpredictable pops higher, despite the heavyweight list of reasons to sell.
That was why on Fri euro rallied after President Obama ordered airstrike in Iraq as investors took profit ahead of the w/end to lock in profits. Looks like the downside on the euro looks limited as shorts are eagerly waiting price to head lower to take profits.
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
13 Aug 2014 00:42GMT
USD/JPY- ....BoJ EconMin Amari statement:
'see no immediate need for extra budget but govt, BoJ have always said ready to take action to support economy as needed;
when we say we will take appropriate action, that means we are ready to take whatever means available;
economy will undoubtedly make pretty big rebound in July-Sept, expect outlook to brighten;
Japan firms' shift to overseas production, weak demand in Asia partly behind soft Japanese exports.'
'economic recovery intact after weak GDP;
GDP surge ahead of tax hike and reactionary slump is "normal" response when compared with past cases of sales tax hike;
PM Abe will make final decision on if to proceed with second sales tax hike looking at various data ahead;
positive cycle of corporate earnings, wages and capex need to remain in place for economy to rebound in July-September.'
Highlights of BoJ meeting minutes:
- Most BOJ members said BOJ to keep QQE as long as necessary, said QQE having desired effects.
- Most BOJ members said BOJ to examine risks, adjust policy as needed.
- Some members cautious on achieving 2% price target.
- One member said inflation expectation have not risen.
According to minutes of the July policy meeting, several of the Bank of Japan's board members expressed a more cautious view on the economic outlook to reach a sustained 2% price stability target by fiscal 2015.
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
EUR/USD - .... Fundamentally, yesterday's downbeat German ZEW investor confidence does not bode well for Germany & the euro. WSJ reported the German economy is struggling. And, worryingly, that might not just be down to Russia. Tue's ZEW survey of analyst n investor expectations, fell for the 8th month running in Aug. What's more, the figure failed even to meet forecasters' modest expectations.
Although pundits have been quick to ascribe the weakness to Russia's conflict with Ukraine n subsequent western sanctions on Russia. On the other hand, maybe the survey's softness shouldn't be a surprise. German industry has been misfiring during recent months. Factory orders slumped 3.2% on the month in Jun. May's ind. production data posted their biggest drop in 2 years n only registered a modest rebound in Jun, well short of expectations.
Russian trade made up a mere 3.8% of total German trade in 2013. There are signs the euro zone's recovery might be running out of steam. Italy, the single currency's 3rd biggest economy, slipped into yet another recession during the 2nd quarter. France, the 2nd largest economy, is likely to be in recession or on its way.
Germany found an outlet for its exports in the wider global economy during the euro-zone crisis, conditions in the developing economies are also looking tougher. Thur's 2nd quarter German GDP data are likely to show no growth or even a modest contraction, though economists are confident in a rebound during the second half of the year. But that might be a shade optimistic given the squeeze German exporters are facing from all sides.
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Aug 2014 23:59GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3366
55 HR EMA
1.3373
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
49
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.3445 - Aug 01 high
1.3433 - Last Fri's high
1.3408 - Last Fri's European high
Support
1.3333 - Last Wed's fresh near 9-month low
1.3269 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3650-1.3366 fm 1.3445
1.3223 - 61.8% r of 1.2745-1.3995
. EUR/USD- 1.3366 ... Euro ratcheted lower y'day after last Fri's short-covering rally to 1.3433. Price tanked to an intra-day low at 1.3337 in European midday after weak ZEW economic sentiment b4 staging a recovery to 1.3370 in NY.
. Y'day's fall to 1.3337 strongly suggests the correction fm last Wed's near 9-month trough of 1.3333 has ended at 1.3433 last Fri n as long as 1.3408 holds, downside bias remains for MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to resume after choppy consolidation, n below 1.3333/37 sup area wud confirm, yield further weakness twds next daily chart obj. at 1.3295 (Nov 2013 low), however, as hourly oscillators wud display bullish convergences on next decline, suggesting steep fall below said daily sup is unlikely n reckon 1.3269 (61.8% proj. of 1.3650-1.3366 measured fm 1.3445) wud hold n yield a much-needed correction later. On the upside, only a breach of 1.3433 wud bring stronger retracement of the intermediate fall fm 1.3650 to 1.3454 but 1.3485/91 (prev. daily res n 50% r respectively) shud cap upside.
. Today, we're cautiously selling euro on intra-day recovery in anticipation of such marginal fall. Abv 1.3408 risks 1.3433, break, 1.3445/50.
AceTraderFx Aug 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Aug 2014 02:36GMT
USD/JPY- .... The greenback climbed at Tokyo open after finding support at 102.40/41 in Australia and easily penetrated yesterday's high of 102.54 to 102.66 in Tokyo morning as gain in the Nikkei following yesterday's rally in U.S. n major European stock markets (last seen up 80 points to 15,294) boosted risk appetite.
Intra-day broad-based gains in Asian equities suggest buying dlr on dips is the way to go. Bids are noted at 102.30-20 and then 102.05/00 with mixture of bids n stops located just below 101.80. On the upside, offers at 102.60-70 are being absorbed but more are are placed at 102.80-90 and then 103.00 with stops emerging just above July's peak at 103.15.
Investors should pay attention to U.S. weekly jobless claims later today at 12:30GMT. Economists are forecasting a rise of 6K to 295K for the week ended Aug. 9, however, recent low claims levels show the U.S. labor market is strengthening.
Thursdaywill see the release of New Zealand's business PMI and retail sales, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia's Westpac leading economic index, China's CB leading economic index, Germany's GDP, Swiss producer and import price, eurozone GDP and inflation, Canada's new house prices, U.S. import prices, exports prices and jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Aug 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
15 Aug 2014 01:57GMT
USD/JPY- .... This morning statement from Japan FinMin Aso, quote:
'moderate economic recovery is continuing;
will closely watch economic data from July-Sept before deciding whether to raise sales tax next year;
sluggish growth in money supply means economic recovery is not strong enough.'
Last night despite dlr's brief retreat from Asian high at 102.66 to 102.32 in NY morning after the release of more than expected U.S. jobless claims which came in at 311,000 versus economists' forecast of 295,000.
However, renewed buying interest there lifted price again to 102.54 in New York.
Friday will see the release of U.K. GDP, Canada's manufacturing sales, U.S. PPI, NY Fed manufacturing, overall net capital flows, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output, capacity utilization and University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Aug 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
GBP/USD - .... Although Britons are finding EU goods & services cheaper this month as compared to a year ago when they take their vacation in Europe in this holiday Aug month after eur/gbp cross slid to a near 2-year low of 0.7874 in Jul, the flip side of this is the widening of Britain's trade gap esp vs the EU.
The U.K. Telegraph reported why the eurozone's woes could hurt Britain. Growth in EU ground to a halt in the 2nd quarter of the year. This was mostly due to weaker-than-expected figures from the eurozone's economic heavyweights.
Germany's economy shrank by 0.2% in the quarter, while France's flatlined. At the same time, the bloc is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral.
Prices are falling in Portugal, Greece n Spain, while Italy isn't far behind.
Because the EU is still Britain's single biggest overseas market, so an economic standstill in the eurozone will hit UK exports hard.
MPC member David Miles summed it up on Thur when he said British exports to the EU are "dead in the water".
Britain's overseas investments are also concentrated in the EU, so poor performing EU firms will hit the UK's return on foreign investment hard, too. Both of these factors mean further pain for the U.K.?s current account deficit, which already stands near a record high at 4.4% of GDP.