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AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Recommendations on Major EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 20 Jan 2015 04:34 GMT
EUR/USD -1.1590
Despite yesterday's brief rise to 1.1639 on short-covering, renewed selling below previous res at 1.1649 capped euro's upside.
The single currency fell again to 1.1573 in Asian morning on renewed speculation that ECB's president Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro ($635 billion) bond-purchase program on 22 Jan, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1540/50 and possibly towards, however, aforesaid low at 1.1460 should hold from here.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1649 resistance would bring stronger correction of medium-term downtrend to 1.1700.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jan 2015 03:30GMT
GBP/USD - ..... The pound pares yesterday's spectacular rally from Asian 1-week low of 1.5058 to as high as 1.5200 in NY morning. Some touted this move on possible M&A deal whilst some tied this to active buying of sterling vs yen & eur.
However, renewed weakness in eur/usd in NY session later triggered broad-based long liquidation in sterling and cable retreated to 1.5136 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading below said yesterday's high would continue today.
Range trading this morning was expected ahead of release of MPC's Jan minutes n U.K. jobs data at 09:30GMT.
Offers then were tipped at 1.5160/70 and more with stops above 1.5200. Initial bids are noted at 1.5140-30 and more at 1.5110-00.
With U.K. general election looming in May, Blooming reported lose-lose for business as U.K. election defies prediction.
Businesses faced with a general election in the U.K. are finding that the only thing certain about the vote is its unpredictability. 3-1/2 months before the ballot, polls agree that neither PM David Cameron's Conservatives nor the Labour opposition are likely to win a majority. And the odds have already shortened on a rerun having to be held this year.
That makes companies' forward planning increasingly difficult even as the U.K. economy gathers strength, inflation drops n interest rates look like staying at a record low. 16 of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News identified political uncertainty as the biggest threat to Britain?s recovery, making it the second biggest risk after weak demand fm the euro area, which was cited by 18.
Both parties' electoral agendas are also cause for concern. The U.K. Independence Party's growing popularity has forced Cameron to harden his stance on Europe and to pledge a referendum on EU membership by 2017 if he is re-elected, pitting him -- unusually for a Tory leader -- against the majority of British businesses. Meanwhile, Labour leader Ed Miliband's pledges to freeze energy prices and raise taxes have been greeted with unease.
The EY ITEM Club also cited possible shocks from the U.K. election as a risk that "should not be neglected" in its winter forecast, published this week.
Still, with polls consistently putting Labour n the Conservatives neck and neck, questions such as the likelihood of a referendum may not be resolved on May 7. A survey by YouGov Plc carried out on Jan. 18 n Jan. 19 found the Tories n Labour tied at 32 % of the vote -- not enough for either party to get a majority in Parliament. The poll of 1,747 people also put UKIP support at 15 %, with the Liberal Democrats at 8 % n the Greens at 7 %.
Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's CPI, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence, Japan's BoJ rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Leading Economic Index, BoE MPC vote outcome, U.K.'s Average Earnings, ILO unemployment rate, Claimant Count Unemployment Change, Canada's Wholesale Trade, BoC's rate decision, U.S. Housing Starts, Redbook and Building Permits.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Intra-Day News and Views ( USD/JPY ) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jan 2015 02:05GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Despite yesterday's brief but sharp drop to 117.18 after BOJ's rate decision that it maintained its monetary policy, the greenback rebounded strongly to 118.17 in NY on active short-covering, suggesting the pullback from Tuesday's high at 118.87 has possibly ended there.
Bids are now reported at 117.80-70 n more at 117.50 with stops only seen below yesterday's low at 117.18.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 118.15-20 and 118.40.
In other news, reports showed that margin traders in Japan raised bets the yen would fall against the dollar to a record.
Positions betting against the yen were 522,856 contracts on January 15, the biggest net shorts since Tokyo Financial Exchange Inc. Click 365 began collecting the data in 2006.
Yesterday although the greenback fell sharply in Asia as BoJ announced no new measures for monetary policy easing and dropped to 117.30 ahead of European open, price staged a short-covering rebound to 117.91 in European morning. However, renewed selling emerged there and price tumbled to session low at 117.19 in NY morning before staging a recovery to 117.79.
Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI, Australia's HIA New Home Sales, China's MNI Business Sentiment, Italy's Industrial Orders, Industrial sales, Retail Sales, U.K.'s PSNB, PSNCR, CBI Trends (Orders), ECB's rate decision, U.S. Jobless Claims, Monthly Home Price, Markit Manufacturing PMI, euro zone's Consumer Confidence.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 21 Jan 2015 23:56GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.1590
55 HR EMA
1.1588
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
60
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
1.1774 - Last Thur's European high
1.1728 - Last Wed's low
1.1680 - Y'day's high
Support
1.1540 - Tue's low
1.1489 - Minor hourly sup
1.1460 - Last Fri's 11-year low
. EUR/USD - 1.1615... Euro swung wildly y'day ahead of Thur's ECB meeting. Price ratcheted higher fm 1.1542 at Asian open n climbed to 1.1641 in NY morning b4 falling briefly to 1.1565 after the news of ECB's bond purchase plan b4 rallying briefly again to 1.1680, however, renewed selling knocked price to 1.1562.
. Looking at the bigger picture, last week's breach of key sup at 1.1640 (2005 low) signals LT downtrend fm 1.6040 (2008 record high) to retrace the entire uptrend fm 0.8228 record low made in 2000 wud extend weakness twd 1.1212 in Q1, being the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of this move. On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.1728 signals temporary low is made n risks stronger retracement twd 1.1871 but price shud falter below 1.1976 (Jan 5 high) n yield another decline.
. Today, euro's retreat after y'day's brief rally to 1.1680 suggests correction fm said fresh 11-year low at 1.1640 has possibly ended there, break of 1.1540 (Tue's low) wud add credence to this view n bring re-test of this sup. Looking ahead, price is en route to 1.1403, being equality projection of 1.3995-1.2500 measured fm 1.2888 later this month. On the upside, abv 1.1680 wud risk stronger gain to 1.1728, then 1.1763 (being 38.2% r of 1.2254 to 1.1460).
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Intra-Day News and Views ( USD/JPY ) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jan 2015 01:50GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Reuters reported Japanese manufacturers began the new year on a strong note as domestic and overseas orders picked up, a survey showed on Friday, suggesting the economy is shrugging off a slump in consumer spending last year that triggered a recession.
The Markit/JMMA flash Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 in Jan from a final 52.0 in December.
Japan's economy is expected to grow an annualised 3.2% in the 4th quarter of last year and an annualised 2.1% this quarter, rebounding fm a mild recession after a sales tax increase last Apr, according to a Reuters poll.
Economists expect growth in consumer spending, exports and capital expenditure to drive growth this year.
A decline in oil prices could also help lower fuel costs for Japan n give the economy a further boost.
Manufacturers also hired new staff for the 4th month running, the survey showed.
Comment from Japan's FINMIN, quote:
'praise ecb for taking steps to support economy, avoid deflation'
'appropriate for boj to change its forecasts in response to changing economic environment'
'boj never said it would meet inflation target exactly in fiscal 2015'
Fridaywill see the release of Japan's Manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI for France, Germany and euro zone, Italy's Trade Balance, U.K.'s Retail Sales, Canada's Retail sales, CPI, U.S.'s Existing Home Sales, Markit manufacturing PMI and Leading Index Change.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jan 2015 03:46GMT
EUR/USD - ..... With the major market event of ECB massive bond purchase announcement out of the way, the next focus is this Sun's Greek election.
Bloomberg reported the ECB set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least 6 months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.
The ECB decision locks Greece out of the QE program until policy questions raised by the vote have been resolved. Foremost among them is the strategy of Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party is leading PM Antonis Samaras's New Democracy in polls after he pledged to wring substantial concessions from the so-called troika of creditors.
Also reported were 2 separate surveys by the Alco and Rass polling companies published Wed in Athens showed a lead of as much as 4.9 percentage points for anti-bailout Syriza party over the premier's New Democracy party.
Greece's next gov't will have to decide on extending the international bailout program that expires at the end of Feb, with the country set to run out of cash by the end of Jun at the latest. While voters are attracted by a Syriza platform which includes opposing the terms attached to the aid, investors have been spooked by the implications of a potential Tsipras victory.
The two polls by Rass n Alco gave Syriza 31.2% n 32% respectively, compared with 27% n 27.1% for New Democracy. That suggests that even if Tsipras wins, he won't have enough lawmakers for a majority in Greece's 300-seat chamber.
Earlier the single currency nose-dived from 1.1651 to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1316 on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt yesterday the central bank will buy 60 billion euros ($68 billion) a month of public and private debt until September 2016. Although short-covering bids above psychological level at 1.1300 provided brief support to euro, renewed selling at 1.1380 and more at 1.1400 shud cap euro's upside and yield another sell off later.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops were located at 1.1800.
Market focus may shift to the upcoming election of Greece on Jan. 25 as ECB's president Mario Draghi said on Thursday that Greece will be ineligible for the ECB's 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.3 trillion) program until at least July because of limits on how much debt the central bank buys from a single issuer.
The European Central Bank set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least six months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.
According to a statement on the ECB's website, Greece must also complete a stalled review of its current bail out, as purchases from program countries will be suspended during such assessments.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jan 2015 09:31GMT
GBP/USD - ....... Although the British pound continued to remain under pressure in Asia and fell to 1.4963 at European open, then marginally lower to fresh 18-month low at 1.4958 in European morning, price pared its losses and staged a rebound to 1.5008 after the release of upbeat UK retail sales data.
UK retail sales mm and yy came in better-than-expected at 0.4% and 4.3% vs forecasts of -0.6% and 3.0% respectively.
Bids are now seen at 1.4960/70 and more below at 1.4950/60 with stops building up above there whilst offers are noted at 1.5020/30. St specs would look to buy on dips initially, however, as outlook remains bearish, position traders should sell on intra-day recovery.
AceTraderFx Jan 26: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and View
26 Jan 2015 02:10GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite early brief drop to 117.27 due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index after Greek official projections showed Greece's anti-austerity Syriza party wins the Greek election, the greenback rebounded on short-covering together with cross unwinding in jpy (eur/jpy dropped briefly to 130.15 b4 rebounding strongly to 132.10).
However, offers at 117.85-95 are likely to cap dlr's upside somewhat with stops only seen above 118.00.
On the downside, some bids are located at 117.60-50 and more at 117.30-20 with stops seen at 117.00.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Friday that the lender may need to get creative in any further monetary stimulus, reiterating that if inflation expectations are "seriously" affected by disinflation, policy can be changed.
On the data front, Japan's exports rose more than forecast in December, reaching the highest level in six years and paring a record annual trade deficit caused by energy purchases and a surge in imports before April's sales-tax increase.
Japan's annual trade deficit widened for a third straight year, rising to 12.8 trillion yen in 2014 from the previous year's 11.5 trillion yen.
That was the largest in comparable data back to 1979. Japan's trade balance turned negative in 2011 for the first time.
Also, Japanese exports rose 12.9% in December from a year earlier, MoF data showed on Monday, up for a 4th straight month in a sign of a steady recovery in shipments helped by a weak yen n a pick-up in overseas demand.
The reading compared with forecast of an 11.0% increase, following a 4.9% y/y gain in Nov.
It was the fastest growth in a year. Imports rose 1.9%in the year to Dec, versus economists' median estimate of a 2.3% gain. That resulted in a trade deficit of 660.7 billion yen ($5.6 billion), extending a record run of shortfalls to 30 months.
Data to be released this week:
Australia market holiday. Japan's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, BoJ meeting minutes, Germany's Ifo Business Climate, Ifo Current Conditions, Ifo Expectations, Eurogroup meeting, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, euro zone's Retail Sales on Monday.
Australia's NAB Business Conditions, NAB Business Confidence, China's CB leading economic index, France's Business Climate, EU FinMin meeting, U.K.'s GDP, U.S.'s Durable goods orders, Redbook, Markit Service PMI, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidenceon Tuesday.
Australia's CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, Switzerland UBS Consumption indicator, Germany's Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Import Price index, France's Consumer Confidence, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement, RBNZ rate decisionon Wednesday.
New Zealand's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Japan's Retail Sales, Australia's Exports, Imports, France's Consumer Spending, Germany's Unemployment rate, unemployment change, CPI, HICP, Italy's Wage Inflation, euro zone's Business Climate, Consumer Inflation Expectation, Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Industrial Sentiment, Italy's Consumer Confidence, U.K.'s CBI Distributive Trades, U.S.'s Pending home sales on Thursday.
Japan's Unemployment Rate, All Household Spending, CPI, Industrial output, Construction orders, Housing Starts, Australia's PPI, France's Producer Prices, KOF indicator, Italy's Unemployment Rate, Producer Prices, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Approvals, euro zone's Unemployment Rate, Inflation ex Food & Energy, Canada's GDP, U.S. PCE, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jan 26: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Jan 2015 00:29GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.8766
55 HR EMA
0.8728
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9000 - Psychological
0.8903 - 70.7% r of 0.9131-0.8352
0.8838 - Last Tue's high
Support
0.8751 - Last Thur's high
0.8682 - Last Fri's low
0.8500 - Wed's low
. USD/CHF - 0.8783.. Dlr went through 'roller-coaster' week last week. Price rebounded to 0.8838 on Tue due to renewed cross-buying of chf, however, decline in eur/usd pressured the pair to 0.8500 Wed b4 rising again due to resumption of downtrend in eur/usd, dlr later climbed back to 0.8820 on Fri.
. Looking at the bigger picture, despite dlr's free fall fm Jan's fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.0240 to a 4-month trough of 0.7360 after SNB surprised the market by unpegging the 1.20 franc cap, subsequent swift bounce has left a spike bottom formation on the daily chart, suggesting a major low has been formed. As mentioned in recent updates, although market may test dlr's downside, as long as 0.8326 sup holds, choppy sideways trading is seen b4 prospect of another rise. A weekly close abv 0.9131 (prev. reaction high) wud add credence to abv view n yield further gain to 0.9396 (being 70.7% r of 1.0240-0.7360). On the downside, only below 0.8326 wud dampen bullish view on dlr n may risk weakness twd 0.8000.
. Today, despite euro's selloff to fresh 11-year low ahead of Asian open, decline in eur/chf limited dlr's gain to 0.8824, suggesting choppy sideways move is in store. We're standing aside initially b4 giving a recommendation.
AceTraderFx Jan 27: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jan 2015 02:11GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback rose strongly from Monday's low at 117.27 to 118.50 and then 118.66 in Tokyo morning today on renewed risk appetite amid optimism Syriza's victory in elections won? lead to a Greek exit from the euro area.
Bids are now located at 118.25-20 and more at 118.10 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 118.00.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 118.70-80 with sizeable stops building up above 118.90 and 119.00.
Yesterday although the greenback opened lower in NZ and dropped to session low at 117.18 ahead of Asian open, price rebounded to 117.83 at Asian open and continued to trade with a firm bias.
Dlr, then rallied to session high at 118.49 at NY open due partly to broad-based cross-unwinding of the Japanese yen before retreating briefly to 118.13 in NY morning.
However, renewed buying there lifted the pair and price recovered to 118.47.
Tuesday will see the release of Australia's NAB Business Conditions, NAB Business Confidence, China's CB leading economic index, France's Business Climate, EU Finance Ministers meeting, U.K.'s GDP, BBA Mortgage Approvals, U.S.'s Durable goods orders, Redbook, Markit Service PMI, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence