The Legend of The Gambler - page 48
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If there is a guru you should follow, I would recommend Jim Rogers. That guy has been on point for a long time.
Didn't he moved to Asia with his young wife and a kid and bought a bunch of US dollars lately?
MP -- had to say something
the "new" market, while appearing to be senseless and random, is truly following TRENDING forms --- what is happening though, outside of the "momentum rich" times you speak of is that the market is being traded on charts that you cannot even see on MT4.
using the ability to have lower spreads than we retail traders, "they" can make successful trades of one or two pips, although most are usually in the 5 pip range exclusive of the "large" wave that takes over to produce higher returns. Having this ability, this is PRECISELY how the market is being traded.
understanding that even the one minute chart is tending to be a short term trend chart and not easily played without the smaller timeframes and that trades are going off on the quarter minute and less charts, you can easily see that "they" are following the trend, but using EVERY single support and resistance point as they move the price up and down.
in the end, you can follow the action on the 5 minute chart but without the lower timeframes (NOT available on MT4) you cannot SEE what is going on or what directions INSIDE the trend are being played.
at this point, a 15 min chart is a LONG period during non-momentum times and so most of the EA's, systems and methodologies that were backtested and forward tested during the LAST way of trading, are no longer valid.
Assuming you are trading the 15 min chart, understand that EVERY support and resistance point on the "invisible" charts has to be traded and when the price reaches a FINAL support or resistance point on that timeframe, we now switch to the next higher timeframe, which in this case would be the one minute --- now we trade EVERY support and resistance area on the one minute and when THAT timeframe reaches its final point, we switch over to the 2 minute chart.
as you can readily understand, and SEE in the slowness of the market during "non-momo" times, you have to take EACH AND EVERY s+r point in EACH AND EVERY TIMEFRAME below the 15 min, and then you have to wait for EVERY s+r point on the 15 min to be hit UNDER your TP point before you get to your TP point !
AND ALL OF THIS ASSUMES YOU DONT GET CAUGHT IN A MAJOR INTRADAY REVERSAL POINT, which is what now hits your SL, EVEN THOUGH THE TRADE IS A GOOD ONE and will recover in the late afternoon.
You are just being tricked by the experts, and theyre working with tools you DONT HAVE and have to pay for to get, so the bottom line is simply to CONTINUE TRADING THE TREND, on a shorter timeframe than youre used to, with slightly increased lot amounts and deeper SL's --- of course, KNOWING how to trade is even more important, but thats directed towards the newbs and obviously not you !
Trading is not really all that hard these days, assuming you have the proper tools to work with and the ability to trust in your own educated judgement, although i fear MT4, unless it changes its timeframes DRASTICALLY, will continue to leave the retail trader lying in the dirt.
Only to remind that its still possible, my daily average has gone down from 350 pips or more daily to the area of 275, but I now trade HIGHER lottage (usually only 1.5 times more than before) and it readily makes up the differences between the past and present.
of course, Ive been looking for a currenex platform to trade on but my way of trading involves counter trades in the same currency at the same time and while not true hedging as per the definition, so far each currenex platform is a ONE WAY trade, which means i cannot hold a long and short in the same currency at the same time, which defeats my trading style.
Sooner or later it will appear and i will have the advantage of the lower spreads available, but until that time I simply increase my lot size, trade the very LOW timeframes, watch the time of day on the 3 minute chart so as not to unintentionally get into a bad trade and carry on.
If one uses the 30 min chart as a "total day" chart, you will find it reverses for the afternoon session in the USA and then comes back after the rollover period, heading towards its final point. Unless there is a lot of momo, the h1 tends to be the old H4 on heroin --- needs a real kick in the butt to go anywhere. If you use the 15 minute, using the 5 minute chart to TP as we near intraday reversal points, you will usually be very safe and free of any dramatic drawdowns.
I guess one thing im saying is youre using the wrong tools if youre still using MT4, and while you can certainly make profits, you must be finding, like everyone else, that those profits are much lower and more infrequent in nature.
enjoy and trade well
mp
Didn't he moved to Asia with his young wife and a kid and bought a bunch of US dollars lately?
Jim Rogers also predicted the collapse/bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before it happened. I read his article years before, and he said that he is heavily short those 2 mortgage backers because of the heavy derivatives involved. This is at the time of the housing peak, and I remember it vividly. I should have taken his advice when I read that. And yes, he did buy dollars, and dollars has been on a rise lately. He is long term short dollars though.
Jim Rogers also predicted the collapse/bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before it happened. I read his article years before, and he said that he is heavily short those 2 mortgage backers because of the heavy derivatives involved. This is at the time of the housing peak, and I remember it vividly. I should have taken his advice when I read that. And yes, he did buy dollars, and dollars has been on a rise lately. He is long term short dollars though.
An article you might find interesting and I believe it was Jim in a interview that said the dollar rise was nothing more then short covering.
Fannie, Freddie Overseer May Seek More Treasury Aid (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
I agree MP, if you are seriously a professional scalper, 1 minute charts are way too long of a time frame. You will have to go with much shorter timeframes to eek out an edge in that kind of trading. It is all about speed and execution when you are scalping for a few pips. And of course, professional scalpers have the most advantages in their favor in technology, low volume trading costs, and fastest execution speed. MT4 is a dinosaur when compared to the cutting edge platforms that retail professionals use.
Unfortunately, I'm working with MT4 because I can't stay glued to the monitor and manual trade all day. I've tried that, and I found it to be exhausting, and I don't see myself or my family lasting very long if I'm twitchy from looking at sub-minute charts. The bottom line is that I don't think I'm cut out for that. So I have to sacrifice more pips on the table, and just go after the middle chunk of the move. Instead of trying to find every S+R, I will have to use statistics to basically limit my losses and let my winners run a little more. That's the best I can do now. I can't watch the moves from one level to another, I think I'll just move to B/E when I'm 10 pips ahead, and hope for a bigger move to like 20-30 pips.
The beautiful thing about having some experience in forex and trading in general, I understand how the experts work. Newbies are always trying to pick the reversal points, and experts are always trapping the newbies when the reversal is faked and continuation on more breakout. Trading then becomes much easier to process with this knowledge. And I limit my trading to high volatility time and volume because who really wants to be in the chop all day or be trading during dead hours. If the reversal does come, then you limit your losses with the SL. If the trap is in play, and continuation on a breakout catches all the newbies with their pants down and to cover, then you have a good trade.
This is not the most efficient way of trading, I know this. I'm not trying to compete with the professional folks. I just want a few scraps off the table.
Funny you should say that perhaps this could be of some use to you kenny.I think with some practice you can do better.Trading With Deadly Accuracy Method - Page 2 @ Forex Factory
^ I've read that thread before.
That's the direction I'm heading, but I'm approaching it from a different angle. I'm trying to implement the same type of trading through EA automation, so it is similar, but very different at the same time. I doubt he could put his trading style into code because most of it relies on interpretation of the shape/levels/reactions of price.
Hell, I'm not even sure I could do it. It definitely won't be easy or elegant, and most likely, won't be as profitable.
Gambling
Just a thought.
If you made your bids truly random martindale would work.
Suppose an EA that bid random everything ,buy/sell, differing time frames, differing pairs,etc etc ,starting with nano lots.?
redpigg
I'm not sure if I'll ever implement my new scalper strategy. I'm not even targeting any of the higher spreads, I'm sticking with EURUSD and USDJPY for the moment. With the spread and commission factored in, I'm getting to breakeven pips or slightly negative pips. So there is definitely something there, just that with the cost of trading is eating away all the profits.
I may add in some money management, slight martingale after a series of losses perhaps to try to come out in the black.
I'm using 2 pips spread for my calculations and no slippage, so the broker is going to very important. I'll probably be using mbtrading as my broker, but they have commission that will eat away at least 1 pip per trade. But I probably won't be traded against by them.
It is a New YEAR, 2010.
It's crazy how fast time flies.
I've been slacking over the holidays, and I need to be honest with myself, this scalping project of mine has been in my head for much too long. I have not written or modified a single line of code. I've been doing a lot of eye-balling the charts, and trying to make some of the puzzle fit. I'm not sure if I have the motivation to get it done. The best way is to develop it here on my thread, and hopefully be shamed into getting something done.
So since it is the start of the year, I guess this is as good of a time to get started. I will start with typing some code, which I will not be giving away, however, I will share what are the core inner workings of what is going into my code without giving all the specifics.
I will be using 2 types of indicators as the core of my system. One type will be a volatility indicator, and the other type will be a moving average indicator. That's about it, I don't want to have too much indicator because then it becomes seriously laggy system.
The indicators will give me what I need, I want to trade during the busiest times. I want action. When volatility expands, it usually means that a trend is about to begin, so I trade with the moving average which signifies the overall trend. And I will probably limit my trading to only the busy hours of trading...most likely the NY and London exchange hours.
I still have not decided on the TP and SL yet, I will after I get some code to test. So for the beginning, I will set my TP and SL as fixed arbitrary numbers.
Many will probably think this is bull crap, a system cannot be this simple. Well, I want it to be as simple as possible to build the framework. If I can eek out 50 pips per month with this system, I would be quite happy. At $10 per pip, that's $500 per month extra income in my pocket...this would pay for a lovely family vacation every year. I miss Hawaii.
Someone slap me for thinking way ahead when I don't even have a single line of code done.
Well, so far the MetaEditor is blank... LOL. Time to break out the Ole' Johnny, and see what kind of gibberish code I can muster up before the weekend ends. I guess I'll just update where my code is in the future postings. Feel free to bash away if I'm slow as a snail.
The Project is named "BlackSheep_TheGambler_Alpha". When it is ready for Beta, when my initial code is done, I will link my demo testings on MT4 or myfxbook, and y'all can look or laugh at my results. I'm sure many many revisions of the code will be necessary.