How can you determine a true breakout? So you don't get whipsawed to death.

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I've been browsing this site and have seen all kind of indicators. They look great, but when i put them to the test using a practice account the trades don't go very well. So i guess I will still use the good old moving ave. But i don't like whipsaw. that is the downside of the averages. How can you determine a true breakout or trend so you can make some pips? I look at the eur/jpy and there has been a lot of trending movements, but there are time where the market is flat. That took it all away. I know you can't win them all, but i want to make progress. I need some advice or indicators that will do this.

some indicators i have used.

MA_anglezero

cci(too fast of movement. can rebound very fast)

cci-woodie(same as cci)

adx

zigzag(keeps redrawing itself-a lying indicator IMO)

stochastics

thanks

 

There is no exact way to determine break outs. The best tool you can use is not an indicator. Learn about trend lines. Those are the best tool in my opinion.

 

And you put them manually on the chart,or use some MT4 indicators for trend lines?

 

I believe there are some indicators to do it for you. I can't think of any right now. For me it's easier to draw them myself.

 

Anyone knows some GOOD trend line indicators for MT4?

 

Just draw them in as parallel lines. And read Jiler's book on charts and the stock market. It explains market behavior and trends in a way that even a cat could understand.

 

the thing about trend lines is, it a lot like elliot waves. There is no way to be sure you are right. You can have a support and resistance lines, but someone else has something different. Yes trend lines do work, but how can you be sure you have true support and resistance.

I can draw a support line, but the true support can be 100 pips down from where i drew it. There are some software packages that claim to be able to find true support and trend lines. I might check them out.

i won't say what it is because i don't know what the rules are about potential spamming on this board. I am still new to this site.

 

I think to directly read your opening post and reply with a direct answer is best. My advice? Well I would try and not overtrade and identify a time of day that gives you the winrate that you desire.....do not trade the other times....

I have refrained from giving advice as I am not a profitable MT4 trader....yet....So what I would do..may not be the correct answer.

ES

sed34:
I know you can't win them all, but i want to make progress. I need some advice or indicators that will do this.
 

A true breakout is determined by probability of price being (not, yet there) at certain location given a specific time window.

 

Lots of breakout indi's

Guys and Gals,

There are plenty of breakout indi's on this site. My favourite is by andee and I have attached it here.

I also use Dolly (there is a massive FX-TSD following and onging evolution on this site) and the trusted Old dog indi.

The indicators mentioned are part of a wider strategy and are very simple in concept. You trade after market open or close after a given time span. You could use moving average indicators with stoch's and RSI to determine trend, but typically aren't required.

The thing about breakout indi's in my opinion, is to add at least 10 pips to the ask price plus spread. This should help eliminate false breakouts, but will also impact profit. I typically use the breakout methods on higher time frames and they are good for longer trading strategies or overnight, (I'm based in UK with broker time of GMT +1)

JMO

Files:
ant-gu_breakout.ex4  13 kb
 
Limstylz:
Guys and Gals,

There are plenty of breakout indi's on this site. My favourite is by andee and I have attached it here.

I also use Dolly (there is a massive FX-TSD following and onging evolution on this site) and the trusted Old dog indi.

The indicators mentioned are part of a wider strategy and are very simple in concept. You trade after market open or close after a given time span. You could use moving average indicators with stoch's and RSI to determine trend, but typically aren't required.

The thing about breakout indi's in my opinion, is to add at least 10 pips to the ask price plus spread. This should help eliminate false breakouts, but will also impact profit. I typically use the breakout methods on higher time frames and they are good for longer trading strategies or overnight, (I'm based in UK with broker time of GMT +1)

JMO

thanks for the tip

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