School of Pimpology - page 7
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Nice trades
Perfect afternoon for trading!!
Everything Mr. Pimp is teaching us here was in play.
Hope you all made some nice pips.
Hi FX Pimp,
Looks like there was a perfect Oil/Gold/$ correlation this afternoon (UK).
Do you find oil a good leading indicator for FX entries or are the movements often too quick to provide reasonable analysis?
Thanks for your thread.
G-ManHi GMan,
As a leading indicator its always tough to know exactly what Crude is going to do next, but we can get a pretty good idea.
If it's above the povot and the m.a's on your 5m chart then you know the short term direction at least, is more likely up.
I have noticed it leads the Gold though, which is more closely correlated to the currencies.
For example, last Wednesday or Thursday Gold was pushing up nicely and Crude was going sideways.
Crude then decided to fall aggressively but still Gold carried on up for a bit.
When this happens, as mentioned before, have faith in the Chairman of the club. He is the Stud and will always have his way with the Golden lady in the end.
At that time I was long GBPUSD and didn't hesistate to chop the trade with just a couple of pips.
Surely enough Gold then dumped 100++ talking the FX with.
If Crude is sideways Gold can move a little and the FX can operate, just keep an eye on it.
USDCHF short at R3 1.0296 anyone ?? Might be a cheeky 20 in it
Against the strategy but lots of green without a retracemnt. Maybe worth a 10 pip punt !
Just to clarify...
thats great thanks''
is every trade you look for (with this method) ONLY with the correlation of gold and oil or do you still trade the 123 set ups off the 5 min when gold and crude are moving in opposite directions?
I'm pretty sure you don't but just checking!
Wow FX Pimp your last post is great !
I think I've learned more with it then during my last 2 years on the market.
Please continue your work here ^_^
I hope I will be able to thank you when I retire
Questions & Answers
Hey FX PIMP
Just noticed some nice set ups on the majors - THe way I interpreted it was
1 - Oil dumped and gold followed - both 63 CCI's down MA's comfirmed direction
2 - looking to buy USD-JPY, USD-CHF and sell GBP-USD, EUR-USD - which brings about my first question:
Q) Which one of these pairs would you have chosen to trade and why?
I know you explained a bit about correlation but it seems to be escaping me right now. I know you take a prefix and suffix (i think !) pair but which two pairs do you "disect"?
3 - Enter on the 123 which is the shorter term CCI pulling back and then crossing above/below the 0 line. Obviously going in the direction of the longer term CCI.
A couple of them are up 70 pips right now... nice
Q) So as long as the 5 min gold and crude are both below the 0 line on the 63 CCI we can look for short set ups on the 5? Is this correct?
Q) If 5 min Gold and Crude is saying short but the 1 hour is saying long do you stay out of the 5 ?
Thanks I hope this isn't too longThanks for the questions Cindy. This is just what the thread needs. People who are not afraid to ask.
My late Grandmother used to say to me as a kid "don't ask, don't get" and whilst I'll try my hardest to reply to all private messages, it's must more constructive to the whole community to have questions out in the open for the benefit of all.
Furthermore, the more time I spend answering the same questions to those who p.m me the less input I can put into the thread, so hat's off to those who are not afraid to ask.
I'm an easy going guy who likes a laugh. I'm not a 50 year veteran of these markets who is going to consider ANY question as silly.
Sheex, I'm only a 35 year old regular guy who drinks far too much, so don't feel inferior. I'm sure most of you know a lot more than I do !!
Aaaaaaaaaanyway. The 10 pip punt was good for 15 quick pips on the Swissie and was my last trade of the day, so allow me to answer some questions.
Yep. You got it.
Oil and Gold falling = stronger USD, so looking for shorts on EURUSD and/or GBPUSD / longs on USDCHF and/or USDJPY
Oil and Gold moving up = Weaker USD, so looking for long EURUSD and/or GBPUSD / shorts on USDCHF and/or USDJPY.
Which one you choose is a matter of preference and today was a perfect example of 'take your pick'.
I have attached a shot with possible entries on all.
On other occasions, like this morning with USD weakness EURUSD was not set-up correctly but GBPUSD was, so that was the pick. USDJPY short wasn't set-up correctly but USDCHF was for the shorts.
I will never buy or sell INTO moving averages so its important to wait until you have a clear space above/below to fill.
However, when there is a big gap to fill between the averages then this is often a good opportunity to play to the next moving average as the first Gold (XAU) trade shows.
Wait for the 63 to show the way, then wait for the 7 to retrace as most of these shots show.
If the 60m is looking like a buy, but the 5m is looking like a sell. ie below 15m ma's and above 60m ma's then you can play TO the 60m m.a's and see what happens when and if it gets there.
This can also be represented but the 0,0 line on the 15m 84CCI, which is about the same as the 60m 20ema.
I will go more into this later.
How's that for starters?
Correlation Is King
Just a quick note to all the novice traders out there whilst I'm here repeating myself in several different private messages.
Crude will generally tell Gold what to do and Gold will tell the 4 major currency pairs what to do.
It's not perfect all the time. Sometimes it makes no sense at all, BUT if you follow these rules you will seldom come unstuck.
EURUSD + GBPUSD generally move in the same direction as one another and will move in the same direction as Gold. 1st picture
Up with a weaker Dollar + down with a stronger Dollar.
USDCHF + USDJPY generally move in the same direction as one another and will move in the opposite direction to Gold 2nd picture
Pleas study this in depth on various timeframes and you will see that it is not an exact science, it is not pip for pip, but it works, will make you a lot of money, and more importantly will save you from a lot of costly mistakes.
I hope this helps.
Gold is XAU on WHCTrader4 by the way.
Pairs...
I wasn't able to trade this afternoon and as always i missed a lot.
So, i'm just checking to see what did i miss.
First, Mr. Pimp i think that Pivots are great addition to your strategy and they were very helpful today. If you look at the charts you'll see that EURUSD, Crude and Gold stopped their moves at S3 pivot, USDCHF is performer of the day and the only managed to brake R3 level, while USDJPY is stopped at R2.
If we don't have any of MA's in a way that is the simplest way to determine our profit targets.
Also, and this is my favorite play, you can do a little cheeky play counter-trend at S or R pivot points (just like Mr. Pimp proposed in a post above) for 10-15 pips in few minutes
. But this is not for novice traders.
Second, this today is perfect example why you don't need 15 pairs in order to make some pips - 4 majors + gold and crude are more than enough. Just look at EURJPY, GBPJPY or other popular non-majors pairs and you'll see that they are very choppy this afternoon.
Enjoy your trading
thats great thanks''
is every trade you look for (with this method) ONLY with the correlation of gold and oil or do you still trade the 123 set ups off the 5 min when gold and crude are moving in opposite directions?
I'm pretty sure you don't but just checking!If Gold is not moving then the FX are not really doing much for me, so it's a MUST that the Gold is doing something.
However, sometime Crude might be trading in a range which allows Gold to do her own this to a certain extent.
I WANT to see them both moving and if I wait and wait and the FX go without me then I trade the crude and Gold instead.
What I won't do at the moment is trade when Crude is moving in one direction and Gold in another. It's not really happening a lot lately so it's just about having a little bit of patience.
stop loss
Fx Pimp, welcome to my club sir:) I quit using stoplosses on day 7 of my live trading
I am known (to myself) to hold negative floats of 500 pips for over 3 weeks.
I believe (Quoting someone from another forum) STop loss = Lose and stop.
Shiva,
as suicidal as this may seem I don't actually use stops.
I find it to be like showing ones hand whilst playing poker.
I have an automatic computer gererated stop loss CGSL, which sits about 100 pips away I think, but always keep a close eye on what everything is doing.
If something goes sour I stop it out myself, but don't want to show my hand.
Nice gag though Sir.????
Hi midesign
Isn't it better to try 25 trades and risk 20 pips then 1 and risk 500 ?
The faster you get rid off the losing trade - the more money you have (and more chances) to catch new profitable one.
I really don't think that Mr. Pimp meant holding -500 position for a few weeks when he says that don't use SL.
I don't use it when i'm in front on computer but overnight i simply MUST put reasonable SL because i don't want 500 pips loss in one trade.
I did when i started just what you are doing and i can tell you that later on you are going to have SERIOUS issues in trading, especially if you keep losing trades few weeks and then they turn in your favour!!!
Men, people are writing 500 pages books about that
I did it - you don't
Best regards