Virtual Trading - martingale solution - page 3

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solution

mini-me,

there is a solution to the martingale, i'll post some of the aspects of beating the martingale and grid problems in the next few days with end/beginning of day gapping junctions, sequences, timeframes, declinations, ellipses and the ephemeris, i think most people here have it all wrong....no disrespect....i cant go into specifics right now because im using the hospital computer as my wife just gave birth to our first daughter by c-section....i'll try to get the post done by the weekend.....talk to everyone soon.......phreak.........

 

congregation, thats great news I wish the baby all the luck and success and may she lead a happy life.

I am quite busy with the summer course , so I stopped further develpment till I finish, however send me your email and i will send you a small present.

Regards

Alan

phorex_phreak:
mini-me, there is a solution to the martingale, i'll post some of the aspects of beating the martingale and grid problems in the next few days with end/beginning of day gapping junctions, sequences, timeframes, declinations, ellipses and the ephemeris, i think most people here have it all wrong....no disrespect....i cant go into specifics right now because im using the hospital computer as my wife just gave birth to our first daughter by c-section....i'll try to get the post done by the weekend.....talk to everyone soon.......phreak.........
 

Hi,

What type of courses you are giving?

b.

MiniMe:
congregation, thats great news I wish the baby all the luck and success and may she lead a happy life.

I am quite busy with the summer course , so I stopped further develpment till I finish, however send me your email and i will send you a small present.

Regards

Alan
 
Bongo:
Hi,

What type of courses you are giving?

b.

Dear Bongo , I don't give any courses, I asked for PP email as he had a new baby and I wanted to send him a congratulations email.

I have offered help to some TSD members in the past, but I never took and will take anything in return.

Selling forex materials in not for me, I may decide later on to manage accounts, but I wont be selling any thing not now nor in the future.

 
 
MiniMe:
Dear Bongo , I don't give any courses, I asked for PP email as he had a new baby and I wanted to send him a congratulations email.

I have offered help to some TSD members in the past, but I never took and will take anything in return.

Selling forex materials in not for me, I may decide later on to manage accounts, but I wont be selling any thing not now nor in the future.

You must sell your soul to the FX gods if you want to be profitable. That's FX 101.

 
jbfx:
You must sell your soul to the FX gods if you want to be profitable. That's FX 101.

FerruFx

 

Hi,

I don't agree with the basic idea of Minime that trading virtually first will increase chances. I studied this method extensively on the "roulette" of a casino.

Let's say that your naked underlying trading system makes 60% profitable trades and we take a sample of 1000 trades.

Direct winners will than happen 600 tradesout of 1000 trades

1 loser followed by a winner 240 trades(theoretically 240 of the remaining 400)

2 losers in a row followed by a winner :96 trades

3 losers in a row followed by a winner: 38 trades

4 losers in a row followed by a winner: 16 trades

What you actually do by waiting till 4 losers in a row already happened and only than starting to trade is NOT INCREASE YOUR CHANCE OF WINNING. Your chances to win are still the same with the initial 1st trade. You simply significantly reduce the probability of trading (and therefore of losing) but if you count the amount of losers/1000 trades (token in to account the increased lot size and ditto increased lose size) it will be the same ratio as without the martingale (trading the naked strategy). We must consider here only the trades that you actualy trade and not the trades that the underlying strategy should have token without the martingale+"Minime chance increaser".

For a trader it give however the impression that he turned a losing strategy in to a "winner only strategy", because the martingale postpones the loser. So in the short time frame of 6 months for example you see only winners. But whatever you try: Decreasing the number of trades (and thereby also profit) or increasing the number of steps the martingale makes: The result will never be better than your original strategy. The eventual and sooner or (very much) later BIG LOSER will come and it will kill your account.

Sorry to spoil the fun.

 

Pipperoni ,

thanks a lot for your comments , you didn't spoil the fun at all, sometimes I am right other times I am wrong, your comments are valid

I will give you an example of the method and you can check it out on an expert, although this method does reduce the number of trades which means reduce the number of losses , it also increase the chances of winning.

the idea of a Martingle depends on the price pull back for 37 pips or x amount of pips , now lets say we skip the first 4th trades and lets say the distance between each trade is 40 pips

so if we have a straight move 4x40 = 160 pips " lets forget the spread now " , after that we start with a counter trend entry so if it was a long move we go short, now look at the history and tell me how many times the EURUSD has moved 160 pips and didn't give back 20-40pips

the idea in simple words is to enter counter the trend at big moves, and this is part of the forex behavior

Personally I wait after the NFP news and I enter counter the trend the next day , and I always manage to make safe amount of pips.

So skip the roulette, check the EURUSD history , I hope this will help

Regards

Alan

jbfx:
You must sell your soul to the FX gods if you want to be profitable. That's FX 101.

I am trying to make a deal with him " its only one God "

 

MiniMe,

I see what you mean. You do not simply use the same criteria to enter a string of doubling up trades. By waiting, you also increase the potential for a correction to happen. I will think more about it in the coming days.

The problem with this sort of, let me call it,"correction trading" as I studied it in the past, is that the correction indeed always happens, but ...

I often failed to catch the top of the wave. In your USDJPY example a correction of 100 pips happened. But because you were in to low with your sell order, you could not exit your order yet. This scenario made me often miscatch my Profit targets of an important correction, only to see the main trend starting again and my martingale 10point3 blowing up my (demo)account.

So be careful! The correction always happens, but this does not guaranty you a profit, imho.

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