Usd/jpy - page 7
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The sentiment is still too negative on Jpy and non-commercials have a short exposure which in the past has always facilitated the formation of a primary top on UsdJpy. The resistances will hardly be overcome in the short term, so it’s better to take advantage of the weakness to buy more Jpy and play the trading range.
As for UsdJpy, my view on EurJpy is bearish too. The RSI seems to anticipate a rather important fall of the cross.
The short uptrend of UsdJpy has definitely been lost. Now, target to area 95, hypothetical neck line of a bearish head and shoulder.
Yen Strength
The Japanese Yen has strengthened over the past few trading sessions and after the USDJPY broke down from the 100 level we may see the 95 level targeted next over the next few trading weeks. History tends to repeat itself and we could see a stronger Yen over the summer months and into fall unless some major unforeseen event will cause the Yen to weaken.
I would not be surprised to see a set to lower highs and lower lows going forward on all Yen crosses. Interesting to see how the Yen behaves going forward as analysts are all over the place with their year-end predictions as always. The majority tends to be in the camp calling for a much weaker Yen going forward and have a 2015 target of 120. I think we will see more of the same out of Japan as we have in the past two decades.
Between 131.05 and 131.50 return short on EurJpy…
Sometimes a trend can open up investment opportunities in other markets: Short Aud/Cad, if you believe that Oil stocks are better than Gold ones
According to the Ichimoku cloud, we should enter long on EurJpy here:
Is it a bearish head and shoulder the one that is forming on UsdJpy or a simple continuation figure of the trend? I would choose the second option.
August 7, 2013 – USD/JPY (daily chart) has continued its gradual downside correction within a clear parallel descending channel. This extended channel has currently brought the pair down below the 97.00 level, significantly lower than the intermediate high around 101.50 that was established one month ago. This corrective decline has formed a trading range consolidation that follows a steep and prolonged trend of dollar strength and yen weakness that extended from a low around 77.00 in September 2012 to a high at 103.70 in May of this year.
The current bearish leg could soon breakdown below the channel, extending and accelerating the correction, and reach down towards key support levels around 95.00 and then towards a retest of June’s 93.77 low. With the longer-term directional bias still to the upside, however, the major bullish event to watch for would be a breakout above the upper border of the channel and the key 100.00 level, which would potentially target a bullish trend continuation and upside objectives once again around 103.00 and 105.00
Oscillators on UsdJpy are quickly falling towards the oversold; at the end of August: sell Jpy.