What’s next for the U.S. Dollar?
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We saw the U.S. Dollar strengthen over the past few trading sessions and most major USD crosses approached multi-week or multi-month highs/lows. Obviously the USD bull camp is now short on vacancies as most dumb money funds as well as retail traders have flocked to the USD amid hope of a strong finish to 2013 on an economic perspective.
Personally I disagree with their point of view and think that we will see the USD fall apart over the summer months and into the end of the year. You can ignore the NFP report as it is not translating into economic growth. Everyone who thinks the report was great obviously does not fully understand the report and is blinded by the headline figure plus revisions.
Once the EURUSD touches its 2013 lows I think we will see a rally and not so much because of a strong Euro, but rather as a result of an extremely weak USD going forward. That is just my contrarian point of view about the USD as well as the US economy which I think will enter a recession in 2014.