I would suggest that you start reading about stochastic (predicting the next move )
Now in nonlinear switched systems we can have either a common solution or a global solution, common solution means that the solution will satisfy the equations of the system over the whole region (let’s say one year) so I wouldn’t recommend that, global solution will satisfy the equation for each sub system over that small period.
In your search for a control system look for a global solution, which means you need t o cut down your system to smaller periods and hence you will end up with a new equation for each period (months or week) and adjust the feedback (current price) to change the state variables accordingly
There is a good book about this called Switching Systems and Controls by Daniel Liberzon, however I won’t recommend his approach as he use lyapunov function to prove most of the theories, the issue with this is that you can get a very good results if you got the lyapunov function but there is no easy way to find the lyapunov function
Using stochastic will be a better way to approach this problem(Holy grail ) I am sorry I didn’t made any research about this issues, but once I do I will let you know
Thank you for your pointers MiniMe they are invaluable to me.
Thank you for reminding me MiniMe, im very thankful for your helping hand to a new commer like me to trading. I will not repay you in the wrong way. I hope that one day i will be able to share something of value with you too. thank you
I would like to discuss these 2 very strong statements you made because they surprise me a lot.
- First "the holy grail can be mathematicly proven", could you please elaborate on that, give us more information or links to documents that demonstrate it. From my knowledge the people in Universities working in the market theories support more an efficient market theory, rather than a "holy grail" theory. So anything supporting your statement would be very interesting.
- The strategy is a martingale: again from my knowledge (I may be wrong) if there is 1 system that can be mathematicly proven that it fails it is martingale. So in my opinion it should be the last one you should think to use.
Martingale fails at least for 2 conditions that are requested in order to have it work and that cannot be met: your account needs to have an infinite some of money, and you place orders with an infinite sze of lots. (I think it's hard to put orders over 100 lots)
Thank you jlpi for your reply. i will give it my best, to bring more clarity to my statements.
my statements are not based on market theory.
they are not based on live trading, nor performance.
the other day i read a story about a coin that was one of only 10 minted in 1853 and how it was the "holygrail" of coin collecting.
now that was the holygrail of a coin collector.
a trader's holygrail is different than the grail of the coin collector, of course.
my holygrail is different than the holygrail of a trader.
now, if i apply my "holygrail" to trading it works like this.
if the price ticker moves up 2 pips. then moves down 5 pips. then moves up 3 pips. my holygrail would have made 2+5+3 thats 10 pips profit.
i know thats not taking into account spread. but the example shows how my holygrail works.
so if u add spread to my previous example it would look like this.
if i was trading euro. first move 2 pips up, no profit there. 2nd move 5 pips down, 3 pip profit there. 3rd move 3 pips up, 1 pip profit there.
so (2 - 2) + (5 - 2) + (3 - 2) = 4 pip profit for my holygrail.
so this being the scientific holygrail. this will never be a system, of course not! a martingale system is the closest thing that comes to it. in pip intake.
all systems that make profit are accessing the scientific holy grail for a moment for a glimpse of it. most of the time only on one side.
here is a way to find a global solution to a currency pair over a period of time, you need to know control theory and how to use Matlab then you can mathematically prove the Holy Grail. Don’t forget read about stochastic
Interaction between MetaTrader 4 and Matlab
Interaction between MetaTrader 4 and Matlab via CSV Files - MQL4 Articles
Price Forecasting Using Neural Networks
Price Forecasting Using Neural Networks - MQL4 Articles
HEHE time to put my laser printer to work
ya i need to find a good source on stochastic ill find one
prasxz do a search for the thread called artificial intelligence.
The AI EA there, is a neural network you can train it using the mt4 optimizer.
just optimize it on the period you want then test it. u can learn to do it all in the backtester and optimizer in mt4. You have everything u need already. so if u want to learn more about neural networks download the ea and start training it with the optimizer, its not hard. check it out its cool.
Thanks ...I'll find it
Forex Indicators Collection
I THINK YOU SHOULD USE MONEY MANEGMENT
The holy grail itself no human will be able to produce it. The best system in the world only gets to touch the holygrail, to get a glimpse of it. To witness it, and to realize that it will never be it.
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