My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 13
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Thank you Picasso - keep'em coming!
The economic stimulus package props up this currency - is it real or has the GBP continues on it's improbable run vs. the USD? Does the run have legs or not? I've been bearish on the GBP for quite some time - and like a wine that comes with a screwtop, have a bad taste in my mouth.
The Pound joined other majors and rose against the Dollar after the BOE kept the interest rate at its current 0.5% rate and decided to keep spending the remainder of its 175 billion-pound bond- purchase program. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5947 and with a high of 1.6120. Today, PPI Input is expected at -0.9% vs. 2.2% prior, Trade Balance is expected at -6.3B vs. -6.5B prior.
market summary
Battle between Trichet and Bernanke!
Bernanke responding that tightening the monetary policy will help keeping the USD strong, this coupled with positive US releases gave a boost to the USD, for ex-the eur/usd is now trading around 1.4730!!
Coming up this week; Trichet's response about the recent bullish trend of the euro amd his expectations, and CAD important news to be published traders should expect for interesting fluctuations...
Oil climbs near $74
The market extends last week's gains as investors remain optimistic about the economic recovery and improved energy demand.
LONDON (Reuters) -- Oil jumped more than 2% towards $74 a barrel on Monday, the highest in over six weeks, on optimism about the pace of global economic recovery and indications of stronger oil demand.
Crude gained 2.6% last week, bolstered by a falling dollar. The International Energy Agency raised its oil demand forecasts and a Reuters survey showed Chinese refineries will keep crude processing at record levels in October.
U.S. crude rose $1.87 to $73.64 by 9:42 ET. It climbed as high as $73.81, the highest since it reached a 2009 peak of $75.00 on Aug. 25.
"The break above $70 has been important as it moves the market into a new and higher trading range," said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Commodities, referring to Brent.
"The better Chinese demand figures published last week and the resilience of equities and gold and a weak dollar have all contributed to this upward move in oil prices."
The U.S. dollar eased against a basket of currencies, further supporting oil, while gold rose. Dollar weakness can boost investor demand for oil and other commodities priced in the U.S. currency.
Signs emerged on Monday that while world energy demand is expected to rise more strongly than forecast next year, key exporters are continuing to keep a lid on supplies for now.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will keep steady in November the curbs on the contracted volumes of crude it supplies to Asia and Europe, industry sources said.
With holidays in the United States, Japan and Canada on Monday, analysts said oil prices would be largely influenced by equities. European stocks rose, as did U.S. shares. "There are a lot of positive sentiments in the market because of expectations for another rally in stock markets this week as well as improved energy demand forecasts from the IEA," said Ben Westmore, a commodities analyst from the National Australia Bank.
Some of the biggest U.S. corporate names are scheduled to post earnings this week, a reality check for whether a seven-month rally in stocks this year has further to run.
Recession may be over, but recovery is painful
Survey of top economists by National Association of Business Economics finds more than 80% believe the worst is over, but recovery will be slow and painful.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More than 80% of top economists believe that the recession that started almost two years ago is finally over. But most don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come.
That's according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). The group asked 43 top economists last month if they believe the battered U.S. economy has pulled out of the worst U.S. downturn since World War II. Those surveyed include economists from leading Wall Street firms and major corporations, as well as from highly respected universities and research firms.
Thirty-five respondents, or 81%, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9%, believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they're uncertain.
Economists in the survey forecast that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3% in the three months that ended in September, though the official reading of gross domestic product won't be out for weeks.
And all of the economists surveyed expect the recovery to be slow and painful, leaving many people and businesses feeling the effects of the downturn for years to come.
The only organization that can officially declare the beginning or the end of a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research. But that group doesn't make any sort of declaration until months after the fact, in order to take into account final readings of various economic measures such as employment, income and industrial production. For example, the NBER didn't declare that the recent recession had begun in December 2007 until a full year after the fact.
Lingering weakness
The NABE survey results echo comments made by many other prominent economists who have recently said they think the economy hit bottom at some point this summer.
Most notably, a recent statement from the Federal Reserve declared that economic readings "suggest economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn."
Still, the NABE survey found that economists are forecasting lingering weakness in the labor and housing markets, and that the tight credit markets will continue to be a drag on economic growth into next year.
Unemployment, which was at a 26-year high of 9.8% in September, is forecast to hit 10% during the last three months of this year, and stay there through the first quarter of 2010. By the end of next year, it's only expected to fall back down to 9.5%.
About 54% of those surveyed don't expect the economy to regain the jobs it lost during the recession until 2012, while another 38% expect that to take even longer. Just three of the economists that the NABE spoke to expect these jobs to come back in 2010 or 2011.
And many don't think the worst is over yet for housing either. About a third of economists believe that home prices won't bottom out until early 2010 or later, while a quarter of them believe the low will come in the fourth quarter.
Half of those surveyed expect the financial markets to continue to be a drag on the economy until next year, while 30% of them said that trend could continue into 2011.
The NABE last surveyed economists in May, and they were far less optimistic at the time. Only 18% of them thought the economy would recover in the last quarter of 2009, while 7% saw a turnaround sometime in 2010.
Banks still stuck with the junk
Beset by delays, the government's program for ridding banks of bad assets is finally poised to take off. But problems still plague the controversial program.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's banks are still sitting on tens of billions of toxic assets -- and they likely will be for quite a while.
The main problem: Tepid interest in a government program designed to cleanse banks' books, which became clogged with subprime mortgages sold at the height of the credit bubble.
The aim of the Public-Private Investment Program, announced by the Treasury Department in March, is to create a market so banks can find buyers for the toxic assets.
To kick start it, the government pledged to match money from private investors and also offered low-cost federal financing.
But many would-be participants such as pension funds, endowments and foundations have balked at jumping in.
For example, CalPERS, California's pension fund for public sector workers and one of the world's largest funds, has so far decided not to invest in PPIP. A company spokesman said the program's "risk/return" was not "the best."
That lack of interest, as a result, has complicated fundraising efforts. Four of the nine asset managers selected to run the program missed a Sept. 30 deadline to raise $500 million in private money.
"That is the problem," said Joshua Rosner, managing director at the independent research firm Graham Fisher & Co. "They are having a hard time raising the money."
At the same time, banks have expressed little interest in selling their cruddy assets, notes Mark Tenhundfeld, a senior vice president at the American Bankers Association in Washington.
"I hope there are sellers out there," said Tenhundfeld. "I just haven't seen any evidence that there is."
Buoyed by raising billions of dollars in fresh capital in recent months, some lenders may instead opt to hold onto their troubled assets rather than sell them and record losses.
Of course, improved values of some of these securities hasn't hurt either. Signs that the U.S. housing market may have bottomed have helped push up the value of complex mortgage securities.
Stabilizing real estate values, however, have also tempered investors' expectations for the types of returns they might see.
Earlier this year, PPIP players could have anticipated yields in excess of 20%. Now, a more realistic return might be somewhere in the neighborhood 8% to 12%, notes Rosner.
"With those kinds of returns and potential lockups on the money, that doesn't provide a terrifically attractive return relative to other asset classes," he said.
Other concerns keep participants at bay
Potential investors are also troubled that lawmakers or regulators could retroactively alter the terms of PPIP.
Last spring, for example, potential asset managers and investors in PPIP feared that the government would impose executive pay limits on participants. Those concerns, however, were allayed when regulators unveiled the terms of the program.
Nevertheless, many would-be investors remain leery about how the government may react if investors were to capture outsized returns using taxpayer money.
With the money raised so far, the program will have up to $12.3 billion in purchasing power of troubled assets. It is expected to expand to $40 billion, including money ponied up by private investors.
And while the terms of the program have scared away some investors, the sheer complexity of the assets has spooked other would-be participants, notes Eric Petroff, the director of research at Wurts & Associates, a Seattle-based consultancy that advises large institutional investors.
Right now, only commercial mortgage-backed securities and certain residential mortgage-backed securities issued before 2009 and originally considered AAA-rated qualify to be sold into the program.
But beneath such securities are layers and layers of investments, pegged to various pools of mortgages, which has made some speculators think twice.
"As a fiduciary, are you really going to want to jump into this?" said Petroff.