My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 39

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USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 18-22

USD/JPY floated around the 102 magnet yet again. When will the pair pick a direction?. Trade balance is the main event of the upcoming week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The Japanese economy squeezed by 1.7% in Q2, as expected. The sliver lining of price rises could be seen as positive, but it may be a one off. Can the economy bounce back in Q3? Other figures released this week weren’t that exciting: tertiary industry activity fell by 0.1%, consumer confidence slipped and industrial production was revised to the downside. Also US data was not too great, with a stall in the JOLTS figure.

  1. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 23:50. Japan suffers a deficit in its trade balance as a result of the March 2011 catastrophe: the country imports energy to compensate for the lack of power production by nuclear reactors. After recording a deficit of 1.08 trillion yen in June, a somewhat smaller deficit is likely for July: 0.77 trillion yen.
  2. All Industries Activity: Wednesday, 4:30. This figure measures the purchases of goods and services by businesses. In May, a rise of 0.6% came after the big tax-hike-related plunge of 4.6% in April. The month of June is expected to see another recovery.
  3. Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:35. Markit’s purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector returned to growth in June after the tax hike effect faded. Also in June, the index stood above 50 points separating contraction from growth. From 50.5 points, a small rise is expected to continue ticking higher.

* All times are GMT

 

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 25-29

USD/JPY moved higher as the Japanese yen surrendered to the greenback’s strength across the board. Inflation data is the highlight among a list of indicators. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japan recorded a wider trade balance deficit than expected, 1.02 trillion yen, but the rise in exports was encouraging. In the US, the upbeat housing data certainly gave a boost to the US dollar, which continued carrying the rally with the not dovish FOMC minutes even though geopolitics remained worrying. Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech did not offer anything new, and left the previous trends in tact and even pushed the pair slightly higher.

  1. SPPI: Monday, 23:50. The Services Producer Price Index has enjoyed stronger rises in the past three months thanks to the sales tax hike: prices were up 3.6% in June and are expected to follow suit in July with 3.7%. Note that the figure stood around 0.7% before April’s hike.
  2. Household Spending: Thursday, 23:30. The level of spending is a good measure of consumer activity, and it also factors inflation. The month of March saw a huge leap as a preparation for the tax hike, but it’s been downhill since then. June saw a drop of 3% and a smaller drop is probable for July: 2.7%.
  3. Inflation data: Thursday, 23:30. Japan publishes national data for July and Tokyo data for July. The focus is on the core y/y data, especially in the Japanese capital. The post-hike numbers were under 3%, with July’s core figure standing at 2.8%. A slightly lower level of 2.7% is expected now. The national figure for July will probably remain unchanged from the 3.3% recorded in June.
  4. Unemployment rate: Thursday, 23:30. Japanese workers enjoy a low level of unemployment. Nevertheless, the surprising jump from 3.5% to 3.7% seen in June was quite disappointing. No change is expected now.
  5. Industrial Production: Thursday, 23:50. This is the initial publication for July. Recent figures have disappointed, with an even stronger deterioration in April. After a drop of 3.4% month over month in June, a small rebound is likely in July: 1.4%.
  6. Retail Sales: Thursday, 23:50. The Japanese consumer is buying less since the rate hike, but recent drops have been minor. After a fall of 0.6% in June, a minor slide of 0.1% is likely for the month of July. The last rise was recorded in March: a whopping 11% leap that preceded the sales tax hike.
  7. Housing Starts: Friday, 5:00. While this is a volatile figure, the trends do have an impact. Also here, drops have been recorded since the tax hike came into effect. A fall of 9.5% y/y has been seen in June, and a similar plunge of 10.5% is predicted for July.

* All times are GMT

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USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 1-5

USD/JPY remained on high ground in the last week of summer. As traders return, the main event this week is the rate decision in Japan. Will Kuroda signal new moves? Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

US data was mostly positive, continuing the trend seen beforehand. Consumer confidence was up, and durable goods orders shined, while new home sales disappointed. The stronger GDP growth in the US was unable to maintain the gains of the pair. In Japan, inflation numbers did not surprise, with Tokyo Core CPI standing at 2.7%. However, household spending disappointed with a huge fall of 5.9% and the unemployment rate rose once again. The yen did enjoy the announcement by Ukraine that Russia invaded. Safe haven flows are likely to continue.

  1. Capital Spending: Sunday, 23:50. Capital expenditures have been on the rise in the past 3 quarters in year over year terms. After a leap of 7.4% in Q1, towards the sales tax hike, another rise of 3.8% is expected now, despite the tax hike.
  2. Final Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:35. According to the initial manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by Markit, growth has somewhat accelerated in August, with the score rising to 52.4 points. The final figure is likely to confirm this.
  3. Monetary Base: Monday, 23:50. The Bank of Japan publishes this measure of the total money held at its coffers and in circulation as it is targeting it. The y/y rise has been on the slide lately, with the figure stabilizing at 42.7% in July. A similar number is expected in August: 43.7%.
  4. Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30. The salaries hat workers make reflects on their expenditure and on the economy. A rise of 1% was recorded in June (after revisions). A slower growth rate is expected in July: 0.9%. This often reflects core inflation.
  5. Rate decision: Thursday morning. BOJ governor Kuroda recently said that his institution is halfway through to achieving the inflation target of 2%. Does this imply continuing the current policy as usual? This is what is expected. No stimulus is likely at this moment.
  6. BOJ Monthly Report: Friday, 5:00. In its monthly report, the central bank has an opportunity to reflect on the way it sees the economy at the moment, regarding growth, inflation, etc.
  7. Leading Indicators: Friday, 5:00. This composite index is lagging, yet it provides a good overall picture of the economy. The figure recovered to 105.5% in June and could continue improving now in July, to 107.2%.

* All times are GMT

source

 
PICASSO:

Forecasts from 08.08.07

EURUSD

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3162/eurd1bq6.gif - daily

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/9714/eurw1mz0.gif - weekly

http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/9689/eurmnfs1.gif - monthly

GBPUSD

http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/8765/gbpd1zc5.gif - daily

http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/8673/gbpw1xw5.gif - weekly

USDCHF

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/2284/chfd1hu1.gif - daily

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/4276/chfwxx9.gif - weekly

USDJPY

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/2426/jpydlk8.gif - daily

USDCAD

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/2131/cadhno8.gif

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1935/caddow5.gif - daily

GOLD

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/4342/goldhve0.gif - h4

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/3140/goldd1sb7.gif -daily

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1328/goldwxa7.gif -weekly

DOLLAR INDEX

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/2332/dxyh4bt7.gif - h4

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/2332/dxyh4bt7.gif - daily

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/9847/dxyw1eb3.gif - weekly

i love those charts

 
endy231:
i love those charts

Those are charts from 2007

 

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 8-12

USD/JPY continues to lose ground as we move away from summer, and closed above the 105 level. It’s a busy week, with 12 events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

As expected, the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. The yen was unable to fight back against the strength of the US dollar, and even temporarily reached a new multi-year low. The voices of peace in Ukraine weighed on the yen. However, the weak Non-Farm Payrolls took some of the sting out of the greenback.

  1. Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Current Account measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, and is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase yen in order to by domestic goods and services. The indicator slipped to 0.13 trillion yen last month, but still beat the estimate of 0.11 trillion. The surplus is expected to rise to 0.18 trillion in the August release.
  2. Final GDP: Sunday, 23:50. GDP is released every quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The indicator posted an impressive gain of 1.6% in Q2, beating the estimate of 1.4%. The markets are bracing for a decline of 1.8% in Q3. Japan hasn’t seen a decline in GDP since 2012, so a weak reading could hurt the struggling yen.
  3. Economy Watchers Sentiment: Monday, 5:00. This indicator is used to measure consumer spending. The indicator rose to 5.13 points last month, ahead of the estimate of 48.7. This marked the first time that the indicator was above the 50-point line since March. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The markets are expecting the upward trend to continue, with an estimate of 52.4 for the upcoming release.
  4. BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Monday, 23:50. The minutes provide the details of last week’s policy meeting. With the BOJ stating that it was continuing its current monetary policy, the minutes are unlikely to provide any unexpected news which would shake up the markets.
  5. Tertiary Industry Activity: Monday, 23:50. This indicator looks at the change in spending by businesses. The indicator posted a decline of -0.1% last month, short of the estimate of 0.2%. The markets are expecting better news in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at 0.3%.

source

 

The Yen Drops To 107 On BoJ 'Negative Interest Rate' JGB Buying

As I write, at the end of the trading day in Tokyo, September 11, dollar/yen is at 106.95-96 and the Nikkei 225 average is at 15,909, up 120 yen for the day.

During the day the yen briefly broke through 107, setting a new YTD low at a level not seen for since September 25, 2008 in the immediate wake of the “Lehman shock.”

From 101.69 on August 8 the currency has been in virtually uninterrupted decline. Yen selling (and dollar buying) is said to reflect growing market confidence in an America economic recovery–and a likely Fed increase in interest rates.

The other side of this coin is an expectation that BoJ governor Kuroda Haruhiko will not be taking his foot off the monetary gas pedal and allow interest rates to rise in Japan.

Two days ago, on September 9, BoJ provided further evidence that it is not slackening in its “different dimension,” unprecedentedly aggressive and experimental program of quantitative easing (QE) in pursuit of 2% inflation. In the first transactions of this kind, BoJ purchased Japanese government bonds (JGBs) from banks at a negative interest rate. Buying in JGBs at a loss to the Central Bank is a way of force-feeding liquidity to the banking system, increasing incentives for lending for investment and consumption.

Today’s Nihon Keizai Shimbun on-line edition relates the commotion that erupted during the morning of September 9 on the bond dealing floor of a securities company when BoJ placed an order to buy JPY 500 billion (USD 4.7 billion) of short term JGBs.

“Negative interest rate” means, for example, that a bond with a face value, payable at maturity, of 100 yen would be traded at a price above 100 yen. BoJ’s current policy is “buying only,” i.e., just adding to its bond portfolio while injecting a steady flow of liquidity into the banking system. “Negative interest rate” buying means willingness incurring losses, clearly not “normal” commercial behavior.

The Nikkei article suggests that BoJ had wanted to avoid this drastic initiative. Kuroda seemingly concluded that the central objective of his “different dimension” QE policy–increasing the monetary base in Japan by JPY 60-70 trillion a year (doubling the base in two years)–would be unreachable without it. BoJ had been doing most of its buying at the long JGB end (some 50 trillion a year) where the market interest rate is slightly above 0.5%. The desire to achieve greater balance at the short end necessitated the negative rate buying operation.

The Yen Drops To 107 On BoJ 'Negative Interest Rate' JGB Buying, But Abenomics' Future Is Still Unclear - Forbes

 

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 15-19

USD/JPY is taking in the view at 6-year highs, as the yen shed over 200 points last week. The pair closed on Friday above the 107 level. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with only four events on the calendar. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japanese GDP sagged with a sharp decline, while manufacturing data was a mix. US employment data was soft, but consumer confidence and retail sales beat the estimates.

Updates:

  1. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Tuesday, 5:30. Kuroda will host a press conference in Osaka. The markets will be listening closely, looking for hints as to future monetary policy.
  2. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 23:50. Trade Balance is directly linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase yen to pay for Japanese exports. Last month, the trade deficit narrowed to JPY -1.02 trillion, but this was much higher than the estimate of JPY -0.77 trillion. The markets are expecting the deficit to edge lower in August, with an estimate of JPY -0.99 trillion.
  3. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks: Tuesday, 6:35. Kuroda will deliver remarks at a financial convention in Tokyo. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the British pound.
  4. All Industries Activity: Friday, 4:30. This is considered a minor release as much of the data has already been released. The indicator came in at – 0.4% last month, slightly lower than the estimate of -0.2%. The markets expecting a turnaround in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at +0.4%.

* All times are GMT

 

Yen Rises for Second Day as Stocks Fall Before Federal Reserve

The yen rose for a second day as falling stocks damped demand for the U.S. currency before Federal Reserve policy makers begin a two-day meeting today.

Japan’s currency rallied from near a six-year low against the dollar as a technical indicator signaled recent losses were excessive. Australia’s dollar snapped a six-day slide after minutes of the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting this month said interest rates should remain stable. The pound weakened versus most of its 16 major counterparts before Scotland votes on its independence this week.

“Dollar-yen has had a very strong rally on the back of very hawkish expectations from the FOMC this week,” said Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “It looks like consolidation ahead of the FOMC, with the U.S. dollar giving back a portion of its gains,” she said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee.

The yen gained 0.1 percent to 107.13 yen at 1:02 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, after touching 107.39 on Sept. 12, the lowest since September 2008. It was little changed at 138.66 per euro. The dollar traded at $1.2943 per euro after climbing 0.2 percent to $1.2940 yesterday. Japan’s markets reopened today after a holiday yesterday.

Japan’s Topix (TPX) index of shares fell 0.3 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped as much as 0.9 percent.

The 14-day relative strength index for the yen versus the dollar was at 20, below the 30 level that signals to some traders an asset has fallen too far, too fast, and may be due to reverse course.

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USD/JPY weekly outlook: September 22 - 26

The dollar rose to fresh six-year peaks against the weaker yen on Friday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates more quickly than expected continued to fuel investor demand for the dollar.

USD/JPY was last up 0.34% to 109.06 after rising as high as 109.46 earlier in the day, the most since August 2008. For the week, the pair added 1.61%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, ended Friday’s session up 0.63% to 84.93, the highest level since July 2013, capping its tenth consecutive week of gains.

The dollar has rallied in the past two months as economic data indicated that the U.S. recovery is progressing strongly, while growth in Japan appears to be faltering.

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve offered fresh guidance on its plans to raise interest rates, underlining the diverging policy stance between it and the Bank of Japan, which looks likely to stick to a looser policy stance.

The Fed statement reiterated that it expects rates to remain on hold for a "considerable time", after its bond purchasing program ends, but it outlined in more detail how it will start to raise short term interest rates when the time comes.

The Fed also cut its monthly asset purchase program by another $10 billion, keeping the program on track to finish next month.

The yen remained under heavy selling pressure amid expectations that the faltering recovery in Japan will prompt the BoJ to implement additional stimulus measures to shore up growth.

Earlier this month BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank would be prepared to immediately loosen monetary policy or implement other measures if its 2% inflation target becomes difficult to meet.

Elsewhere, the yen was higher against the euro late Friday, with EUR/JPY down 0.37% to 139.95, off the four month highs of 141.20 struck earlier in the session.

EUR/USD was down 0.71% to 1.2830 in late trade, the lowest level since July 2013.

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