My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 33

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The US dollar has slipped at the American session after the new Fed chairman Janet Yellen’s speech to the Congress. She stated that the labour market situation was improving, however, this process was far from complete: the likely tapering of QE would continue with a moderate pace; the USD/CHF pair would remain at the same range.

“Bears” on the dollar/franc repeatedly tried to break through the support around 0.8941, but bids of the “bulls” were not allowed the pair mentioned. At the end the pair was bought, that enabled it to climb up to 0.8987. However the pressure on the dollar remains, as well as the chances to fall down to 0.8900. The growth and the ability to hold around 0.9000–0.9020 will indicate the resumption of the upward dynamics.

 

USD/JPY dips on conflicting U.S. data

The dollar fell against the yen on Friday after data revealed output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities came in weaker than expected last month, though an upbeat consumer sentiment report cushioned the greenback's losses.

In U.S. trading, USD/JPY was down 0.32% and trading at 101.84, up from a session low of 101.58 and off a high of 102.41.

The pair was expected to test support at 100.75, the low from Feb. 4, and resistance at 102.70, Tuesday's high.

The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index remained unchanged at 81.2 for February, beating expectations for a fall to 80.6.

The numbers boosted the dollar, though soft output data kept the greenback lower against the yen.

The Federal Reserve reported earlier that U.S. industrial production fell 0.3% in January, defying expectations for a 0.3% rise after a 0.3% increase the previous month.

Data also showed that U.S. import prices rose 0.1% last month, confounding expectations for a 0.1% downtick after a 0.2% rise in December.

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The Swiss franc rose amid total dollar sales after a new portion of the U.S. weak statistics.

The pair USD/CHF is consolidating just above 0.8870. The loss may increase to 0.8830. The immediate resistance is at 0.9060 (highs 46 February). The return above 0.9100 will make the growth target 0.9140/50 and 0.9180 (maximum of 20 November).

The pair dollar/franc could not develop a growth above 0.8928. It was sold here, and it fell to 0.8868. The overall picture is negative for growth and ability to consolidate above 0.9100 will be proof of that.

 

USD/CHF

Frank continues to consolidate after the euro. From a technical point of view, the pair USD/CHF is trading below 0.8900. The immediate support is at 0.8850 (lows of last week). The loss may increase to 0.8820.

The downtrend is slowing down. The pair may remain at the current level 0.8850 for a while still we expect a trend reversal upwards. The first target is 0.8890, the second is 0.8910.

 

Frank continues to consolidate after the euro. From a technical point of view, the pair USD/CHF is trading below 0.8900. The immediate support is at 0.8850 (lows of last week). The loss may increase to 0.8820.

The downtrend is slowing down. The pair may remain at the current level 0.8850 for a while still we expect a trend reversal upwards. The first target is 0.8890, the second is 0.8910.

 

USD/JPY Forecast March 3-7

he Japanese yen enjoyed worries about Ukraine and unimpressive US data to slide. A wide variety of indicators is due to impact the yen. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Japan recorded another win over deflation, with improvements in all inflation figures. However, the road is still long, especially given the upcoming tax hike. US indicators were mixed, with strong durable goods orders and new home sales, while jobless claims rose. This weighed on USD/JPY that struggled with the strong 102.70 line and eventually fell to lower ground. The downwards US GDP revision, even though there were caveats, didn’t help either. Also the events in the Ukraine, which is torn between east and west, triggers safe haven flows towards the Japanese yen.

  1. BSI Manufacturing Index: Sunday, 23:50. Early in the week, we get two important indicators. This survey of large companies in the manufacturing sector has been positive in the past three quarters, indicating optimism. The official data is expected to tick up from 9.7 seen in Q4 2013 to a double digit figure in Q1 2014.
  2. Capital Spending: Sunday, 23:50. The level of capital spending grew by 1.5% in Q3 2013. A somewhat slower growth rate is expected for Q4 2013, especially after the weak GDP value.
  3. Monetary Base: Monday, 23:50. Since the Bank of Japan announced its grand plan in April 2013, the monetary base seen large year on year growth rates. After a growth rate of 51.9% in February, an even higher growth rate is expected now, given the stronger conviction of the BOJ to act to curb the effect of the sales tax hike.
  4. Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30. The Japanese government would like to see higher wages in Japan, and thus a higher pace of inflation and a stronger economy. After a rise of only 0.5% in December, a stronger rise is expected for January.
  5. BOJ Monthly Report: Friday, 5:00. The Bank of Japan releases the documents it uses for its monetary policy decisions. The recent report showed optimism, and this one is expected to continue the same line.
  6. Leading Indicators: Friday, 5:00. This is also an official government figure, that combines no less than 11 indicators. Steady rises have been seen in this compound figure, reaching a peak of 112.1% for the month of December. A small drop could be seen for January.

* All times are GMT.

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USD/JPY Forecast March 10-14

he Japanese yen was significantly sensitive to the events in Ukraine, strengthening at first before weakening afterwards. Eventually we have seen a big upside breakout. Will the pair run to new highs? The rate decision in Japan is the main event in a very busy calendar. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

USD/JPY dropped to low ground on the rising tensions in the Ukraine, but didn’t really break out of the triangle. This all changed as the mood improved, especially as US Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations. The previous range is gone and the pair hit resistance.

  1. Final GDP: Sunday, 23:50. The initial publication of Q4 GDP disappointed, as the economy grew less than expected on both the monthly and yearly indicators. A confirmation of 0.3% growth is expected now, raising the chances for more monetary stimulus.
  2. Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s trade balance and the wider current account suffer from the energy imports that have increased following the Fukishima disaster. A fifth consecutive current account deficit is expected for the month of January 2014, after around the country posted around 200 billion yen deficit in December.
  3. Bank Lending: Sunday, 23:50. Bank lending is growing nicely in recent months, with an accelerated pace of 2.3% in the last two months. February will likely see a similar rise.
  4. Economy Watchers Sentiment: Monday, 5:00. This survey of 2000 consumers provides a good insight about the economy. It is a PMI-like scale. Since February 2013, it has been positive, with the score rising above 50. After a small disappointment with 54.7 points in January, another small drop can be expected now.
  5. Machine Tool Orders: Monday, 6:00. This indicator at the industrial level has show a strong year over gain in January: 39.6%. Another strong yearly rise is likely to be reported by JMTBA.

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the daily analysis for forex market 14/3/2014

GBPUSD continued its downward movement from 1.6785, and the fall extended to as low as 1.6568. Deeper decline is still possible, and the target would be at 1.6500 area. Resistance is at 1.6665, only break above this level could trigger another rise to re-test 1.6822 resistance.

EURUSD is facing 1.3914 resistance, a break above this level will signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.3477, then next target would be at 1.4000 area. Initial support is at 1.3830, and the key support is located at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

USD/JPY Forecast March 17-21

The Japanese yen was supported at first by China and then by Ukraine, that made a comeback to the limelight. Trade balance is the big event after a busy week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Q4 growth was revised to the downside, to 0.2%, as expected. This adds pressure for more fiscal and monetary stimulus. Worries about growth in China served as the safe haven trigger and this was yen positive, allowing consolidation after the recent rise. The rate decision in Japan offered little, but the BOJ may still act in April. Everything is possible. In the US, figures were OK, but not more than that. The Ukraine story could continue dominating the scene for some time.

  1. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 23:50. Since the terrible earthquake, tsunami and nuclear tragedy 3 years ago, Japan needs to import energy at a much greater scale, shifting its trade balance to negative. After a deficit of 1.82 trillion yen in January, a smaller one is likely now.
  2. All Industries Activity: Wednesday, 4:30. This figure by METI disappointed with a drop in December. After the 0.1% slide, an increase of a similar scale is expected.

* All times are GMT.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Dollar/yen began the week with a slide to the 102.74 line (mentioned last week), practically erasing the jump higher. It then changed course and found support only above the 101.35 line.

Technical lines from top to bottom

The top line is the peak seen in the turn of the year: 105.44. This was challenged several times. Below, 104.80 capped the pair during January.

Below, 103.77 provided support for the pair in January and served as a clear separator of ranges. 102.74 was a stubborn peak during February and is the top line of the current trading range.

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