What is with the Forex Market this week???

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iscuba11
631
iscuba11  

It has about flatlined and rolled over and died. None of the EA's or manual trading is doing much good this week. Oh well, hopefully next week will be better???

Dave

master1977
292
master1977  

i agree that.

hafablapfx
7
hafablapfx  

Nothing is wrong

Which screen you looking at?

Plenty movement on EUR/JPY and Cable. So what a couple days quiet? Not every day can be a party.

Remember, nothing is ever WRONG with the Market but only with the trader. Patience is the key and you must stalk the trade. If it means no trades for 2 days it does not matter.

ONE of the biggest mistake new traders make is over trading. You need not do any more than 1 or two a day and if there is none, go away and have a cup of coffee.....wait....the opportunity will evntually present itself.

If you can see the market is ranging in 20 pip cycle and your EA is not built for it, then for God sake, TURN IT OFF. Don't try extract blood from a stone.

HH

Ian Smith
1595
Ian Smith  

There certainly hasn't been much movement.

This might shed some light on the market:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Essentially, all of the fundamental indicators have been falsified, especially retail sales last week. In the face of such falsehoods, what do we use as a self reinforcing guiding rudder? Last week's answer: nothing. No speculation becomes no movement. Another concept, everyone could be waiting for the ax to fall.

Ian Smith
1595
Ian Smith  

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Veto Proof Insanity

I'm thinking this means that Congress wants to pass authority away from the Treasury department and into the IMF. Who wields the World Bank and IMF power? Rockefellers.

David Rockefeller - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"For more than a century, ideological extremists at either end of the political spectrum have seized upon well-publicized incidents such as my encounter with Castro to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as 'internationalists' and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure - one world, if you will. If that is the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it." - From Rockefeller's "Memoirs", (p.405).

Edit: a few articles later, I had an epiphany. One way to ensure that the Chinese aren't fixing the Yuan prices is to make Yuan free floating. China has $1.2 trillion in US TBonds, a few tons of gold, and is fast approaching an economic bubble. Last month they also installed Reuters equipment for forex. A few weeks later, some Senators make some noise, and the machines will get turned on. If the Yuan goes free floating, it will definitely get stronger vs the USD. This is great for China, bad for US (inflation will skyrocket, wages will continue falling). I wish Senators took economics and not payoffs.

Linuxser
5921
Linuxser  
MrMarketz
545
MrMarketz  

daraknor & Linuxser,

Thank you both for your contrbutions... great stuff.

Ian Smith
1595
Ian Smith  

The Money Masters - How International Bankers Gained Control of America

Sounds cheezy at first, explains things rather well.

Linuxuser, I'm mulling over your arguments a bit. It sounds like you're stating the Central Banks are no longer market makers. In terms of a direct cash buyout I think that is true. On the other hand, I think they have other tools that are effective.

#1 Misinformation. Claiming retail sales are up 2% when retailers are about to crash seems inaccurate. Unemployment down with peak employment down also seems inaccurate. Since the original data and math is never released (only the conclusions) it is easy to manipulate perception. Some of the original data is released, but generally only in a historic fashion.

#2 News generation. Requires more effort, but if you can announce Group A is now helping Group B, or Group C is going to have a trade status change this will affect the economy. Note that no actual activity or change needs to occur, only the announcement that one is coming. (Like US trade with China.)

#3 Interest rates. The big hand of Central Banks, even though this rate is rarely used. It does set the market for the Overnight Interest Swap secondary market between banks.

#4 Altering "value" in other ways: gold movement, currency used as petrodollar, changing supply in some monetary systems, requiring trade in a specific currency, etc. IMF/World Bank actions probably fall into this category.

#5 Direct investment. As Linuxuser stated above.

I ranked the tools in the order I think they are implemented. Misinformation is probably used frequently, but only temporarily. An increase in the prevalence of independent indicators will reduce the effectiveness of misinformation, although it will always carry some weight.

I didn't include insider trading in the above list, I have no idea where to rank it. My unfounded opinion says that insider trading probably happens a great deal to varying degrees. The effective change from insider trading is probably not initiated by the Central Banks, but by the investment firms surrounding them.

I heard once that the Australian stock market is capitalized at less than half the combined assets of the two largest Australian investment firms. I doubt interest rates (which affect the stock market) are changed by the central bank without some knowledge by the two investment firms.

Archimedes
39
Archimedes  

What a load

Geez, some people love the sound of their own voice and have no idea what the hell theyre talking about.

Insider trading? Influencing the market with misinformation?

We are not talking about a penny stock or some monolithic trader like Michael Marcus cornering the soybean market.

Forex is global and so intricately entwined by multiple variables way beyond the dealings of Investment firms (dont make me laugh), and if small countries can barely fluctuate a price for but 30 seconds, the CB will have no long term effect either.

There is only one thing that moves markets of all sorts and that is psychology of the herd, driven by fundamentals (for sure) whilst not being bridled to them. Interest rates do not always have the shocking effect when released because like many things, the herd has factored in the expectation of result weeks (maybe months) before hand, perhaps fearing the worst/hoping for the best and hence it is only when they are surpised that things lose control but only for a short while.

To presume folk at the CB are playing God and somehow reading the worldwide herd mindset as a collective is absolutely ludicrous since we are talking of thousands of massive entities (let alone individual traders) that all have separate agenda's and holding opposing positions because of differing beliefs as to which way the market will go.

It's not exactly zero sum game as many speculate, but it's close enough that everybody is going head to head and it all evens out.

Think about it.

Archer

Ian Smith
1595
Ian Smith  

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Retail Sales Conundrum

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bear Stearns' REO Listing - A Tip of the Iceberg

I don't have answers, I have musings. I stated my musings with a disclaimer, here is a stronger one:

I don't know what is going on with the market. Strange things are happening. Even stranger is how little they are discussed. Here is a start to a discussion, I'm sure we collectively know more than each of us as quiet individuals. Don't invest or make decisions based on my curious musings.

Linuxser
5921
Linuxser  
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