Guyver's trading journal - page 48
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This is not the first time I have saw this behavior and let me explain a little from my short experience. In my first I has been burned many times trading these days.
First is one of the "motos" of technical analysis: market discount everything.
Thinking as TA traders we should think the NFP news was already embedded in previous price behavior.
One of the best examples and demonstrated by statistics is that market moves are more powerful during FED meetings than when the interest rate announcement days.
A fundamental trader could tell you: Yes, NFP was worst than expected but Unemployment rate was better than expected. So, economy is with health yet.
Back to TA it's interesting tho see the big divergence in minutes, h1/h4 CHF today. Same for EUR and GBP. That's mean something.The problem i see with fundamental analysis is that there are lot of factors which needs to be consider for e.g. if i want to project prices based on fundamentals i would then need to consider factors such as ( interest rates,balance sheets perhaps weather etc ) Use some mathematical model which i am sure are a lot of them. In the end i have to find where the balance or imbalance of support/demand exist and act accordingly. On the other hand TA provides behavioral patterns on the chart of people ( traders )and what they did is in front of us as you can see whole Elliot wave is based on this concept also i believe Dow theory ( Market Discounts Everything in price ) so it gets easier for many people including me to act on some past data keeping in mind it's all numbers in the end.
What is best is debatable and i guess no right conclusion has come up till now.
Guyver.
We can also add:
Fundamentals require a high degree of knowledge about economy.
Technical analysis could be learn by almost anybody.
Fundamentals are pretty good to say: well, what really happened is...
Technical analysis could predict the close future better.
However, old words: Technicals must know your fundamentals.
We can also add:
Fundamentals require a high degree of knowledge about economy.
Technical analysis could be learn by almost anybody.
Fundamentals are pretty good to say: well, what really happened is...
Technical analysis could predict the close future better.
However, old words: Technicals must know your fundamentals.True and good Points, None of us will find the dream indicators.
We can only work hard to create our own systems and right psychology to get there one day.
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USDJPY Closed around 102.67-75 range while my stop stayed at 102.52 .
The next trades i will setting up some default lot amounts for each trade .
Guyver.
Usdjpy
Didn't expect it to move this much fast up current 102.90 i have moved my stop to 102.52 .
Here is the chart a mix and match currently
stopped out on USDJPY -16 pips.
Usdcad
stopped out on USDJPY -16 pips.
I have to step away for USDJPY as it failed the pattern for me and concentrate on other currency which could have better probabilty and that is USDCAD while above 0.9880 i am having a temp bullish bais waiting for some further development.
Usdcad
I have to step away for USDJPY as it failed the pattern for me and concentrate on other currency which could have better probabilty and that is USDCAD while above 0.9880 i am having a temp bullish bais waiting for some further development.
Hmmm.. currently below 0.9880 .Although not what i wanted but still inside an excepted level atleast for this trade .. and if it can hold above 0.9855-60 lvl and reverse.
Waiting for further development.
Usdcad
Went long USDCAD 0.9880
SL 0.9860
Went long USDCAD 0.9880 SL 0.9860
I closed the trade at 0.9868 -12
Usdcad
I have this last attempt here on this overall cad trade
buystop 0.9922 ( BID ).
Stoploss 0.9890