Market Prediction with EMA CROSS 1/2 - page 6

[increase]

It's ok but too many arrows the settings are better with 5 and 9 on 1hr like attached

[cubesteak]

trevman:
not sure if this is right or not but,

profit * probability% of getting it = stop

so if your looking at 15pips 70% of the time

15 * 70 = 1050 stop loss

that is to breakeven and not including rollover interest/spreads

I could be wrong, but I think you mean:

15 * .7 = 10.5 or 11 pips.

Honestly though, I must disagree. This calculation doesn't make sense.

Normally you choose a SL that provides the maximal room that the trade needs before it goes in your favor. Why use any more?

Its one thing to say that a signal is 70% accurate, but you have to qualify that with the maximum negative exertion. Everything may look good on a daily chart because the arrow points to buy, but which buy entry bar has the lowest low (or the longest low tail)? Unless you account for that, entry bars that have tails bigger than your SL will end up being a thumbs down, rather than a thumbs up. So, your 70% drops significantly.

So, a 20 pip SL is useful ONLY if the maximum negative exertion is < 19. Sorry if I'm repeating what everyone knows.

Anyway, that being said:

My challenge is that I don't see this indicator being 99% accurate as codersguru says.

codersguru are you still watching this tread? I love the print statement, because it tells you how many are wrong and how many are right. But, unfortunately the BEST that I found was roughly 58% correct. Not that 58% is bad, but it is only on certain pairs, and is certainly far from the 99% stated in post #1

What are your latest thoughts sir?

Best regards,

CS

[mikejody]

Alarm?

Codersguru, could this indicator be made with an audible alarm, or email message? Please?

Thank you.

[matrixebiz]

[matrixebiz]

Oh, Oh, five bad in a row;

https://c.mql5.com/forextsd/forum/15/predict_gone_bad.jpg

[adrazz]

matrixebiz:
Oh, Oh, five bad in a row; https://c.mql5.com/forextsd/forum/15/predict_gone_bad.jpg

no no you noodle, this is no good on a 15 minute chart.. You need at least to use it on a daily chart. Read the whole thread and then make your own decisions. I have myself decided not to pursue this.

[antone]

adrazz:
no no you noodle, this is no good on a 15 minute chart.. You need at least to use it on a daily chart. Read the whole thread and then make your own decisions. I have myself decided not to pursue this.

i am going to try the 10 pips per signal and an SL of 30 pips in eurusd.. if it is 90%

in 100 trade: 10 pips x 100 x 0.9 = 900 pips

30 pips x 100 x .1 =300 pips

i think i can gain 600 pips from this system in every 100 trade.. which is not bad..

may i know what pair did you use for the 15-20 pips which give 99%?

but i am not sure with this yet! what you think?

[adrazz]

antone:
i am going to try the 10 pips per signal and an SL of 30 pips in eurusd.. if it is 90%

in 100 trade: 10 pips x 100 x 0.9 = 900 pips

30 pips x 100 x .1 =300 pips

i think i can gain 600 pips from this system in every 100 trade.. which is not bad..

may i know what pair did you use for the 15-20 pips which give 99%?

but i am not sure with this yet! what you think?

go for it, it is worth the test. Try it on cable, cable trends well with plenty of pip movement per day.

[matrixebiz]

Please explain how to use then. I must be missing something then.

Thanks

[adrazz]

matrixebiz:
Please explain how to use then. I must be missing something then. Thanks

Just choose a daily chart instead of the 15 minute, the signals are more acurate. But test it first on a demo account