Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/CNH - page 3

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.08 08:10

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CGAC Trade Balance and 99 pips range price movement 

2017-03-08 03:35 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 355B
  • forecast data is 173B
  • actual data is -60B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From theaustralian article:

  • "China’s trade balance for February has fallen short of expectations with a deficit of -60.4 yuan vs. 172.5bn surplus expected."
  • "Imports and exports both deviated from forecasts causing the swing, with import growth rising to 44.7 per cent vs. 23.1 per cent expected, while export growth fell to 4.2 per cent vs. 14.6 per cent expected, according to Bloomberg."
  • "The Australian dollar fell from US76.07 cents to US75.95 cents on the announcement, quickly stabilising with last read at US76.01 cents."

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USD/CNH M5: 99 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.09 09:05

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and 113 pips range price movement 

2017-03-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

  • past data is 2.5%
  • forecast data is 1.9%
  • actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From btvi article:

  • "China's consumer price index (CPI) grew 0.8 per cent in February from 2016, according to figures released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics."
  • "This was in comparison to a 2.5 per cent year-on-year increase registered in January, Efe news reported."
  • "China also announced that the producer price index (PPI), which measures the variation of wholesale prices, reached its highest level since 2008, growing by 7.8 per cent year-on-year in February."

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USD/CNH M5: 113 pips range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event

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USD/CNH H12 timeframe: the price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the ranging within Senkou Span line and 6.9314 resistance level. The price is forming the bullish retracement pattern for the bullish trend to be resumed with 6.9314 target to re-enter.

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 18:23

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "Next week, China will release the report for growth in fixed assets. This gauge may not have much direct impact to the Yuan rate but it is a key indicator to evaluate China’s economy. As of the end of 2016, the expansion in fixed assets has dropped to 8.1%, the lowest level in 15 years; private investment in fixed assets, accounting for 60% of total investment, has improved slightly to 3.2% in December from a record-low of 2.1% in August, but this is still significantly lower than levels in previous years. As a major contributor to the GDP, growth in fixed assets may determine whether the country can achieve the 6.5% economic growth target in 2017."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.14 06:43

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and range price movement 

2017-03-14 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

  • past data is 6.0%
  • forecast data is 6.1%
  • actual data is 6.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

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From marketwatch article:

  • "Industrial production in China expanded 6.3% in the first two months of 2017 from a year earlier, accelerating from 6.0% growth in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday."
  • "Value-added industrial output, a rough proxy for economic growth, exceeded a forecast for a 6.1% expansion by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal."

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USD/CNH M5: 1range price movement by China Industrial Production news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:32

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "In China, curbing financial risks, especially the risk of price bubbles, become the PBOC’s main focus after NPC. This may not add much direct volatility to the Yuan but will weigh a lot on China’s monetary policy: when the economic growth slows down, more dovish policy is normally preferable as it will better support the economy. However, rising prices in property, commodities and other financial products have become major obstacles for China to introduce easing measures. On March 17th, the PBOC issued a joint announcement with other regulators to further tighten regulations on home purchases: The down payment for buying a home in Beijing, the capital city where soaring prices were seen frequently, has been lifted to 60% for either a second-home purchaser or a purchaser who has already applied for mortgage before. This means that despite home loans dropped in February, regulators still see significant risk of housing price bubble. Before this concern is fully eased, China’s monetary policy will most likely stay neutral."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.24 15:56

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Gold (XAU/USD) and USD/CNH: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 2.0%
  • forecast data is 1.1%
  • actual data is 1.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From abcnews article:

  • "The Commerce Department said Friday that orders for durable goods rose 1.7 percent in February and an upwardly revised 2.3 percent in January. Orders so far this year are running 1.6 percent higher than in the first two months of 2016."
  • "The growth indicates that manufacturers are steadily recovering from a rough patch that began in 2015 when lower energy prices and slowereconomic growth worldwide cut into demand for U.S. factory goods. The report contained some weakness in a few sectors such as motor vehicles, but it is among several indicators that point to an ongoing rebound."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:35

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "Next Thursday, China will release the March Manufacturing PMI print which is expected to fall to 51.2 from 51.6 in the prior month, according to Bloomberg. Despite that the forecasted read is still in the expansion range (above 50), a falling number indicates that the improvement seen in China’s manufacturing industries have not yet proved to be sustainable. In fact, other Chinese indicators show that producers are facing challenges of higher costs and lower sales. As a result, unless there is a big positive surprise in the PMI print, the gauge is less likely to bring significant support to the Yuan; however, if it falls greater than expected or even below 50, it can easily go against the Yuan."


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