Skilled developer/traders help required

 

Hello, i have a  classic countertrend martingale strategy that work in the follow manner: actually it open trades against trend and when price is going against the initial trade it will increase position to try the recover.

I found several settings that give profitable results but no one can give stable results over a long period (2000-2016) sooner or later it will face off a market configuration tha blow up the account.

I was wondering if there is a way to close early the losing basketes of trades and give stability to the EA, i tried something like a stop loss or a time stop but i was not able to have decent results.

Can you share useful tips to make my martingale strategy relatively safe?

Thanks  and God bless you.

 
Maybe you can try running it on daily, weekly or monthly blocks for better control.
 
Marco vd Heijden:
Maybe you can try running it on daily, weekly or monthly blocks for better control.

Hello thanks for your tips Marco!

My fear is that if I run it on higher TF like daily or weekly number of trades will be too much low...

 
Should be exactly the same except for the long (loosing) runners
 

It's either running on a bigger timeframe or

Entering a position that has advantage

You need to tell us how your re entry works 

 

Reentry can of course be random or time based or on a breakout or indicator based or based upon a lower point in spread or based on a high volume trigger or based on a divergence between correlated pairs or by throwing darts at buy and sell cardboard boxes.

I mean it literally could be anything so what's the point in asking for it.

Of course if you apply your martingale to a higher odd entry you have a slightly higher chance on a successful outcome.... simply because then, the odds are NOT 50%

But realize that this has very little (nothing) to do with the martingale, which comes after that entry, and which only serves as a mechanism to do something else then simply throw away money at the stoploss trigger... it should be clear that this has a direct relationship to market swing/amplitude/oscillation.

Thus it must be tuned independently which is a critical component by itself... but it can luckily be solved by doing some math and this is also where most setups fail.
 
Marco vd Heijden:

Reentry can of course be random or time based or on a breakout or indicator based or based upon a lower point in spread or based on a high volume trigger or based on a divergence between correlated pairs or by throwing darts at buy and sell cardboard boxes.

I mean it literally could be anything so what's the point in asking for it.

Of course if you apply your martingale to a higher odd entry you have a slightly higher chance on a successful outcome.... simply because then, the odds are NOT 50%

But realize that this has very little (nothing) to do with the martingale, which comes after that entry, and which only serves as a mechanism to do something else then simply throw away money at the stoploss trigger... it should be clear that this has a direct relationship to market swing/amplitude/oscillation.

Thus it must be tuned independently which is a critical component by itself... but it can luckily be solved by doing some math and this is also where most setups fail.

Hi Marco, thanks for your clues. Really appreciate this.

Martingale Re-entries are done on exausted points where the price can reverse and make a recover of the losing cycle.

I think that these are good points where put additional trades with increased lotsize and so to close positive the losing martingale basket.

However maybe the best way to tune the ea would be through optimization but the parameters are numerous and it is very difficoult to do a good optimization, so at this moment i'm optimizing with tentative and intuition but i was not able to find parameters that gives safety to the ea.

 
jarvisget:

Hello, i have a  classic countertrend martingale strategy that work in the follow manner: actually it open trades against trend and when price is going against the initial trade it will increase position to try the recover.

I found several settings that give profitable results but no one can give stable results over a long period (2000-2016) sooner or later it will face off a market configuration tha blow up the account.

I was wondering if there is a way to close early the losing basketes of trades and give stability to the EA, i tried something like a stop loss or a time stop but i was not able to have decent results.

Can you share useful tips to make my martingale strategy relatively safe?

Thanks  and God bless you.

Hello Jar,

Q:  "Can you share useful tips to make my martingale strategy relatively safe?"

The most important things to always be remembered are :

  1. Have understanding how to determine levels of Support and Resistance. If not then martingale will have large drawdown.
  2. We can also use point no.1 as confirming breakout and breakdown. Because we have no good reason to make some positions of martingale if the level of Support/Resistance has broken.
  3. Martingale is relatively safe if we trade on Support/Resistance (S/R) inside a trend, or markets is in consolidation (ranging, sideways).
  4. Trend is our best friend, so we should work on (S/R) within a trend, until trend has changes.
  5. Trend at lower time frame is being controlled by higher time frame. 

Good luck,

and God bless you too :) 

 
Yohana Parmi:

Hello Jar,

Q:  "Can you share useful tips to make my martingale strategy relatively safe?"

The most important things to always be remembered are :

  1. Have understanding how to determine levels of Support and Resistance. If not then martingale will have large drawdown.
  2. We can also use point no.1 as confirming breakout and breakdown. Because we have no good reason to make some positions of martingale if the level of Support/Resistance has broken.
  3. Martingale is relatively safe if we trade on Support/Resistance (S/R) inside a trend, or markets is in consolidation (ranging, sideways).
  4. Trend is our best friend, so we should work on (S/R) within a trend, until trend has changes.
  5. Trend at lower time frame is being controlled by higher time frame. 

Good luck,

and God bless you too :) 

Thanks a lot Yohana
 

There have been so many people working on trying to make Martingale strategies profitable by better coding that I doubt a solution exists.  There are some people who claim it works for them and maybe it does, but I doubt they have solved the math problem.

What you might try is something I do in my trading as I am a trader and not a coder although I use robots, indicators, and automatic and semi-automatic trading.  What works for me is not trying to build a perfect mathematical model of the trading universe or even of just one pair.  I don't try and predict the market but try to understand it and for that my basic approach is using price action (Renko charts plus longer term charts for the trend) and then I use a second chart of the same pair or CFD and apply a trailing stop EA: currently I use one from the Market called "TrailingStop 4"

With it on a different time frame (or different approach than Renko charts), I use a one of the selection of four different trailing stop categories offered on the EA.  I select and fit the trailing stop to whatever I understand about the current trend. With a USDollar CFD or a stock index it will be short term trends mostly caught by Renko charts where I optimize the bricks to fit the predominate ranging patterns of the recent days.  I compare this to the D1 chart and I use a Trailing Stop on a H1 or H4 chart.

A lot depends on your trading style and strategy and your resistance to pressures of fear and greed.  Your margin available is part of this and you won't be able to trade effectively if you over trade your account.  People like to use small percentages of their margin to trade since it allows for errors and upsets.  2% on one trade is common and keeping your total margin commitment to under 10% will give you some breathing room.

This is probably not the answer you are expecting or hoping for but the forums have hashed over Martingale every month or two and all you have to do is search the forums for Martingale and you will see how regularly the same arguments about Martingale are repeated again and again.  After all, technical trading is build on the same 4 or 5 numbers: Open, High, Low, Close, and volume. Everthing else is a slice and dice of the same thing.

Good luck.

 
Michael Maggi:

There have been so many people working on trying to make Martingale strategies profitable by better coding that I doubt a solution exists.  There are some people who claim it works for them and maybe it does, but I doubt they have solved the math problem.

What you might try is something I do in my trading as I am a trader and not a coder although I use robots, indicators, and automatic and semi-automatic trading.  What works for me is not trying to build a perfect mathematical model of the trading universe or even of just one pair.  I don't try and predict the market but try to understand it and for that my basic approach is using price action (Renko charts plus longer term charts for the trend) and then I use a second chart of the same pair or CFD and apply a trailing stop EA: currently I use one from the Market called "TrailingStop 4"

With it on a different time frame (or different approach than Renko charts), I use a one of the selection of four different trailing stop categories offered on the EA.  I select and fit the trailing stop to whatever I understand about the current trend. With a USDollar CFD or a stock index it will be short term trends mostly caught by Renko charts where I optimize the bricks to fit the predominate ranging patterns of the recent days.  I compare this to the D1 chart and I use a Trailing Stop on a H1 or H4 chart.

A lot depends on your trading style and strategy and your resistance to pressures of fear and greed.  Your margin available is part of this and you won't be able to trade effectively if you over trade your account.  People like to use small percentages of their margin to trade since it allows for errors and upsets.  2% on one trade is common and keeping your total margin commitment to under 10% will give you some breathing room.

This is probably not the answer you are expecting or hoping for but the forums have hashed over Martingale every month or two and all you have to do is search the forums for Martingale and you will see how regularly the same arguments about Martingale are repeated again and again.  After all, technical trading is build on the same 4 or 5 numbers: Open, High, Low, Close, and volume. Everthing else is a slice and dice of the same thing.

Good luck.

Yes, sir.

you're right (" Open, High, Low, Close, and Volume"),

and just one more thing, that is trendline :)

Like this, GBPUSD is trying breakout.

 

A sign that I have to close  position that was opened from Resistance above :( ( so sad )

https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6244868/gbpusd-d1-fbs-inc-gbp-usd-will-break-through-this-key-breadown 

Thanks & regards 

Chart GBPUSD, D1, 2016.12.08 15:48 UTC, FBS Inc, MetaTrader 4, Real
Chart GBPUSD, D1, 2016.12.08 15:48 UTC, FBS Inc, MetaTrader 4, Real
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Chart GBPUSD, D1, FBS Inc: GBP/USD will break through this key breadown...
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