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Based on a matematical model, is it really possible to discover a 100% win system?

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tele2112
408
tele2112 2016.11.07 19:37 

I have this question for a long time, what do you guys think? There really is out there a magical strategy that makes certain trade profit, with 

a 100% accuracy? if not what % range  you think is physically possible?

Michalis Phylactou
10827
Michalis Phylactou 2016.11.07 21:57  
tele2112:

I have this question for a long time, what do you guys think? There really is out there a magical strategy that makes certain trade profit, with 

a 100% accuracy? if not what % range  you think is physically possible?

No.

However as your increase the Stop Loss and reduce the TP the % success increases , hence your question isn't very accurate regarding what counts as a win.

Tobias Grosse
725
Tobias Grosse 2016.11.08 09:13  

No, it is impossible. Every system in this world has uncertainty or blur which cannot be avoided. That means you cannot calculate the perfect system, only close to perfection and the remaining blur causes loss or total failure if without SL.

For example a martingale system has theoretically a 100% win rate, but in reality it fails one day or you were lucky and stopped before .-) You can see this behavior here on mql5. There are always martingale signals which come, stay a while and crash later, praised as fail safe...

tele2112
408
tele2112 2016.11.09 22:17  
I know i wasnt especific enough, lets say a system that makes 100 points- at least-, that lose only lets say 1 trade in 10 times, so a pretty good system, it is matematichally possible to discover this system? If not based on this example what sucess rate is possible. ?
Guillermo
95
Guillermo 2016.11.10 17:25  
Well, in theory, it is perfectly possible for some system to always send orders at the optimal moment and close them at the highest revenue.
Reco Daley
270
Reco Daley 2016.11.11 22:36  
I like the topic , that question is the same reason that attracted me to trading Forex. There is a winning system but if the growth is mediocre is it a win one can appreciate ?
Michael Maggi
1488
Michael Maggi 2016.11.14 10:18  

No.

There is no optimum because so many traders have such different motivation and strategies.

A central bank trying to support a currency or drive it down will do things that are counter-intuitive to the small trader.  Maybe a central bank is just balancing its final accounts for international trading? Central banks also have departments that trade currencies for their own profit.  These are big forces that are always moving money either for profit or just because they have to so their monetary accounts are balanced.

If the new president and congress in the US declare a temporary tax reduction for example on US foreign profits brought back to the USA, we could see Apple bring $20 billion in their cash to the US to pay investors and cut their tax liability.  What impact would this have, probably it would register.  What happens when we go to a country for a vacation and exchange some dollars for euros: nothing.

Small traders like us don't even register on the market movements which is why so many of the people that make money in forex trade on the ranges and trends with modest profit targets and realistic expectations. 

tele2112
408
tele2112 2016.11.15 03:33  

Thank you for your cooperation, now i see my question was really wrong, because if this system really exists it would never become public, the owners wouldnt be that stupid, and also  you cant prove  it doesnt exist, so the answer is really based on your faith

Michael Maggi
1488
Michael Maggi 2016.11.15 06:53  

Systems do not have to win 100% of the time to be profitable.  Depending on the system and the amount of risk you assume, you can expect to have a profitable system with anything above 50% winning trades. Some people even say the percentage can be less.  Profit always comes at an expense.  You don't pay rent or staff or hold inventory but you do have expenses in the form of losses.  Trading is a business and to make money in business you need a realistic strategy, persistence, patience, and experience. 

Keep studying DEMO trades and strategies and you have a chance at your dream, whatever that is.

ForexSucks
259
ForexSucks 2016.11.27 02:05  

I have built a 100% win math system(adds lots in direction of trend - when price trends it wins), and seen others(reversed breakout grid that adds positions in direction of trend - when price trends it wins). A ranging market for too long and they both fail.

In theory it seems possible, but in reality you will eventually run out of margin when the market does what it takes to make it fail.

You can also win 100% of the time if you pick a fundamental trend direction correctly and don't use stops, basically a big directional grid without a SL, but to be successful you need to :

1) pick the direction correctly, a long term fundamental trend lasting months-years (most people cant, or change their minds)
2) use small leverage (most people use too much leverage)
3) be patient (most people in FX aren't patient, they want big profits, fast)
4) don't expect high returns (most people aren't in FX for small returns)

I do know a veteran trader who does successfully apply 1,2,3,4 above.............he trades millions, he makes about 1% a month for his clients. Its boring, its not exciting, but he stays the path and succeeds as others around continually fail.

I wouldn't put all my eggs into a 100% win math system....but I think there's a place for it with a portion of your trading capital.

I am semi long term veteran in FX(10years+), some success and failures along the way, took a year and am back again for another try, building an automated system now that will amongst other various configurations - be able to pursue a 100% win math long term approach as outlined above. I'll be sharing it no obligation, message me if you want to know more.

Cheers, Adam

Achmad Wijaya
387
Achmad Wijaya 2016.11.27 09:39  
It possible, if we are in 100 % always lucky :) , and next question is, can we always lucky 100 %?
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