Dear fellow traders,
I am working on a strategy on EURUSD, that is based on Martingale but with a stop after the 3rd open position, and without any indicators. It should work like this (let's assume there is no spread):
- On EURUSD, at all times, but I expect profits to be better during active trading hours.
- 1. Open LONG trade 'L1' (or SHORT, direction doesn't matter for the first trade) on current price (which I will call "OPEN"): 1 lot (or mini or micro depending on your capital), SL 40 pips, TP 10 pips
- 2. Prepare for a SHORT trade 'S1': open on"OPEN-30pips", 5 lots, TP 10pips, SL40pips
If 1. hits TP without hitting the short order: OK: 10 pips (close pending SHORT order and restart)
If 2. gets ordered and hits TP = 10 pips profit (-40 Long + 50 Short). If not and price reverses to the OPEN a third trade is opened (this one was made pending as soon as the second one was triggered):
Third order: identical to the first: LONG 'L2', same SL/TP, but 20 lots.
Now here it comes:
- if the third hits TP (OPEN+10) rigth away: 10pips profit (+10 -200 +200) BUT
- if it goes down, losses will be big, and a fourth order (SHORT) at the same level as the second one would require too much margin (80 lots (you need 4 times more than the previous to make 10pips)). Besides, and I tested this, price may fluctuate like this up to the fourth and even fifth order.
So after the third order opened (we now have 2 long and 1 short position open) we place a 10 pip trailing stop on the last order. Max loss will be (-10 (L1) -100 (S1) -200 (L2)) -310 pips if price immediately reverses. But it could be better, (-5 +125 -100) -230 if price hits OPEN+5 before reversing, or price hits OPEN+10 = 0 -150 0 = -150. Then you can even let it run and hope for an extra 10pips and break even (0pips). Or more (?+pips).
So now here is my question:
- Who can verify the number of instances (over a considerable time) where price would behave like this i.e. not going up >10pips, followed by going down between 30-40 pips, and back up above "open + <10pips" and back down?
From Jan 2001 until today (>14 years or about 86000 trading hours (1H)): 27240 times price went directly hitting the first long TP (1 out of 3).
But for all the other instances I'm breaking my head to find a way to calculate what the probability is of the scenario described above (theoretically price could move up and down in a 1H bar and there is no way of knowing just looking at the bar, and I don't have the PC-power to work on 1-5 min data). I can do it on hourly data, but there are 86000 rows (!) and it should (as far as I know) be done manually and on smaller time data since price can fluctuate in 1H up and down.
If (worst case of 310 pip loss) this would only happen every 32 trades, this is a sure win game. This is the worst case. I think a 1 in 25 should do it.
But maybe the stats are way better.
Maybe only on active hours.
Thank you all for your input.
Here is the product, which truly reveals all the computing and graphical capabilities of the MetaTrader terminal.
The TrendNavigator indicator helps you take the most effective trading decisions, features stunning accuracy, unlimited graphical capabilities and highly developed notification service.
3D graphics 4 unique trend determining algorithms 5 types of notifications of trend change which appear as Buy and Sell signals Very high accuracy Shows local lows and highs Free notification
The indicator is intended for determining the spread and swap size, the distance for setting stop orders and stop losses from the current price allowed and the risk per 1 point in the deposit currency.
The indicator informs a trader about possible additional expenses and profits connected with transferring a position to the next trade session of the financial instrument. It also informs about the spread size and the distance of pending orders, stop loss and trailing from the current price. In a
The most profitable trend traders are the ones who know how to recognize not only the market trend, but also the trading opportunities that arise once a trend has been established. The Pz Trend Trading indicator has been designed to profit has much as possible from trends taking place in the maket.
Established trends offer dozens of trading opportunities, but most trend trading indicators neglect them completely, and leave the trader completely uninformed about what the market is doing during a
The indicator consists of the two parts – entry system displayed on the chart and currency power analyzer.
The analyzer can take on values from 0 to 3:
the higher the value, the stronger the currency; the smaller the value, the weaker the currency; average values of the indicator suggest that the currency is in flat.Recommendations on usage:
Buy if Trader Dream shows Buy signal and the analyzer shows the currency's strength (the value exceeds 2). Sell if Trader Dream shows Se
The indicator displays harmonic patterns on the chart based on Dynamic ZigZag (https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/5357) and is almost a complete analog of one of the versions of well-known korHarmonics. The indicator recognizes the following patterns and their varieties: ABCD, Gartley (Butterfly, Crab, Bat), 3Drives, 5-0, Batman, SHS, One2One, Camel, Triangles, WXY, Fibo and Vibrations. Only display of ABCD and Gartley patterns is enabled in the settings by default. The reverse line allows d
The script allows users to easily close positions if their profit/loss reaches or exceeds a value specified in pips.
Please set slippage value first. Sometimes some positions do not close due to high volatility of the market. Please set larger slippage or restart the script.
This is an open interest indicator for MetaTrader 5. It fixes open interest value once per minute and writes it to the file (on your PC). The product works on any timeframe but only with exchange instruments.
Pipfinite creates unique, high quality and affordable trading tools.
Our tools may or may not work for you, so we strongly suggest to try the Demo Version for MT4 first. Please test the indicator prior to purchasing to determine if it works for you.
We want your good reviews, so hurry up and test it for free...we hope you will find it useful.
Energy Beam with Swing Control
Strategy: Confirm swing pullback signals Watch Video: (Click Here)Energy Beam with Trend Laser
A script for opening a grid of orders
If you need to quickly open several pending orders (Buy Limit, Sell Limit, Buy Stop, Sell Stop) on a certain distance from the current price, this script will do all the routine for you! Allow AutoTrading before running the script.
Run the script on a chart.
Language of messages displayed (EN, RU, DE, FR, ES) - language of the output messages (English, Russian, German, French, Spanish). Price for open - open price. If set to
The script is intended for automatic placing of Sell Stop pending orders, Stop Losses and Take Profits on the user specified levels. This script is not that useful as "Virtual pending buy stop", since short positions are opened as Bid price crosses the levels. Thus spread widening is not dangerous. Nevertheless, you need to have this script to prevent unwanted hitting of the Stop Loss levels.
Automation of the process of placing the Sell Stop pending orders, Stop Losses and T
Is position management time consuming? The Trade Manager Pro EA performs an automatic and flawless position management for you, avoiding human errors and enhancing your trading activity. It represents a ten-fold increase in trading productivity!
Capital preservation is top priorityLet profits run without your attentionEnjoy risk-free trades as soon as possibleIt trails the stop-loss automatically
Initial SL and TP are also automatic
The EA performs the following tasks
This indicator draws the Keltner Channel using the rates chart calculated from any other timeframe.
The available Moving Averages are:
Simple Moving Average Exponential Moving Average Smoothed Moving Average Linear Weighted Moving Average Tillson's Moving AverageMoving Average line is coded into RED or BLUE according to its direction from the previous candle.
Example: User can display the Keltner Channel calculated on the basis of a Daily (D1) chart on a H4 chart.
NOTE: Timeframe must
Trade in the opposite directions with HedgeTerminalApi library!
HedgeTerminalApi is a program interface allowing you to use HedgeTerminal virtualization technologies in your robots and scripts. With HedgeTerminalApi, you are able to trade in the opposite directions when two or more trading algorithms occupy opposite positions on a single symbol. The library allows robots to track their positions even if these positions overlap entirely or partially. Moreover, with this library, you are able to
This is a classical trading strategy, which falls into the category of breakout systems. They form support and resistance levels, which temporarily limit further price movement. When the price breaks down the support level or breaks up the resistance level, there emerges a strong momentum in the breakout direction, which allows to make profit on strong price movements with moderate risk.
To create the strategy, we used historical data with the quality of history of 99.9%.
It uses filtration o
We present you an effective software solution for arbitrage between brokers.
The Arbitrage on the market became widespread due to decentralization. There are many liquidity providers, whose quotes differ for various reasons. By tracking the dynamics of changes in the quotes of different brokers, it is possible to determine the delayed and leading brokers, thereby predicting the future prices of the delayed broker for a short time. Knowing these prices and using efficient built-in software filte
The EASIEST way to manage your risk for each trade!
Add the indicator to your chart, configure a risk percentage (of account equity) Enter the number of pips for your stop loss into the text entry field that appears on the chart The position size to take will automatically be updatedThe product features two modes - a compact mode which allows entry of stop loss pips and shows the resulting lot size based on the percent risk setting, as well as an expanded mode that also shows
Robust median renko style indicator for creating custom charts resembling median renko, mean renko, turbo renko and better renko candles as well as vanilla renko with wicks plus PointO charts. This all in one package provides all of the signals needed by day traders, scalpers and even long term traders.
Indicator is an overlay on the main chart so it is possible to utilize one click trading and order manipulation directly on the custom charts. Visual order placement is also
Active Lines - a powerful professional tool for operations with lines on charts. Active Lines provides a wide range of actions for events when the price crosses lines. For example: notify, open/modify/close a position, place/remove pending orders. With Active Lines you can assign several tasks to one line, for each of which you can set individual trigger conditions, as well as conditions for re-activations and the number of possible activations.
Active Lines helps you easily organize various tr
Scalper with Automatic Parameter Setting
Would you like to have an Expert Advisor that could automatically calculate trade parameters and adjust to the current market situation?
We present you our new development for the Forex market. This is a tick scalper for МТ4 and МТ5 - TickSniper.
Trading with it is fully automated. Forget continuous monitoring - this Expert Advisor trades independently. Its settings have been optimized over the course of testing on our real accounts.
The indicator is based on the digital window-sinc filter with an excellent frequency division. Due to this property you can get a very smooth indicator line.
The indicator has three lines: the central line indicates the main trend direction and the "fair" price, the other two lines show the price range. When the central line is read, it is recommended to buy from the bottom line and close a position above the central line. When the line is blue, do the opposite - sell from the upper line and cl
The PZ Day Trading indicator detects reversals in a zig-zag fashion, without repainting or backpainting. Based on breakouts of variable lengths, the indicator uses only price action to pick trades and reacts to the market very fast. The positional accuracy of its signals offers huge opportunity for profits, easily up to 80% winners.
Amazingly easy to tradeChart statistics will help you to optimize your tradingIt works on every single timeframe without fine tuningThe indicator analyzes its own q
Safe Automatic is a safe MetaТrader 5 trading robot working autonomously on a VPS server. The good results are achieved on EURUSD.
The EA applies modified versions of a trend-following strategy, half-pyramiding, scalping, Elliott Wave method and speculating trading with a deposit protection. The EA switches the strategies automatically. The program also takes the news calendar into account: the robot does not enter the market in a 10-minute interval before and after a news rel
The Expert Advisor implements the classic "triangular arbitrage", which is successfully used by hedge funds.
"Triangular" arbitrage refers to a class of neutral-market strategies, in which the profit or loss of open positions does not depend on the direction of the market movement as a whole.
In order to take profit, the EA exploits a weak spot of market makers - it utilizes the difficulty of balancing cross rates of all currency pairs.
The advantages of the strategy are the following:
The script is intended for automatic placing of Buy Stop pending orders, Stop Losses and Take Profits on the user specified levels.
Avoiding unwanted entering a long position in case of false hitting the level as a result of widening of the spread by a dealing center. Avoiding unwanted triggering of a Stop Loss in case a quote pierces a significant level (fractal) without further confirmation with the close price. Setting a necessary virtual order and entering the market in
The script creates account summary report in a separate window.
The report can be created for all deals and on deals for selected financial instruments.
It is possible to specify a time interval of calculation and save report to htm-file.
The script creates account summary report in a separate window.
The report can be created for all deals and for deals of the selected financial instruments.
It is possible to specify a time interval of calculation and save report to htm-file.
Exp COPYLOT CLIENT for MT5 is a copier for the МetaТrader 5 platform. It copies forex trades from any accounts. Including those from terminals МТ5 and МТ4.
Install the Expert Advisor in the terminal where you want to copy trades. Specify any text label name as pathRead, for example, "COPY". This should match the master terminal (to bind the two terminals). To copy trades, you need to install the free Master copier in the terminal from where you want to copy the trades: COPYLOT
This indicator allows you to enjoy the two most popular products for analyzing request volumes and market deals at a favorable price:
Actual Depth of Market Chart Actual Tick Footprint Volume ChartThis product combines the power of both indicators and is provided as a single file.
The functionality of Actual COMBO Depth of Market AND Tick Volume Chart is fully identical to the original indicators. You will enjoy the power of these two products combined into the single super-indicator!
This is a convenient tool for measuring the number of points between prices. It support magnetizing to OHLC prices. Calculates profit considering specified lot size and spread (optionally). It counts the number of bars between specified point and the time difference between them. Calculates the slope angle from the horizontal position. Unneeded parameters can be hidden. It does not occupy much space when inactive.
Once you add the indicator on the chart, Ruler caption will appear (according to
Professional Constrictor Expert Advisor follows the market using the Parabolic Stop and Reverse system indicator. At each Parabolic SAR indicator signal, a position is opened in the direction approaching the indicator. In case of an opposite signal, a new position closing the previous one is opened (in other words, positions are opened and closed partially). Thus, the EA constantly follows the price.
The EA has been designed for working in the flat market. It features a critical drawdown, at wh
The Expert Advisor is an assistant for the traders who use Bollinger Bands in their trading. With some additions, it includes three trading methods described in the book "BOLLINGER ON BOLLINGER BANDS" by John Bollinger.
EA inputs for three strategies:
Timeframe EA (graphics),Volume lots to trade,Stop Loss,Take Profit,Close the position at a profit, point. 0 =do not use,Set the breakeven point in points from the entry. 0 =do not use,Increase the amount of position at new signals
I have seen many people try different variations of martingale.
I have not seen a single instance where they haven't resulted in disastrous losses.
You may think that you have conceived an original idea, but believe me, it has been tried many times and failed.
Thank you both,
I agree. Martingale leads to total loss. That's why I thought of this system, cutting losses on the third trade.
I agree that this may also be a loosing strategy but I would like to be sure of it, mathematically.
Ok, so I gave it a shot.
Unfortunately I can't program an EA to test this so I worked in excel with macro's on hourly data. It took me a lot of time to get the formula's and macro right!
The test uses a fixed SL at 10pips after the third open trade (no way I will try to test a trailing stop in excel! :) )
Results: +6104 pips on 40.000 hours (about 8 months) BUT this assumes a new trade every hour which is not possible in reality (you may then have >10 open positions).
Assuming the system closes (TP or SL reached) within 4 hours (seems reasonable), we need to divide 6104 by 4 = 1526 pips in 8 months if trading 24/5 (which could be done with an EA).
190 pips a month.
Considering we start with 0.01 lots, then 0.05, then 0.2 for the last, we have a profit of approx 19*1.8 € = 34.2 € per month with an EA. Much less if you trade manually (perhaps 10€/month).
So, unless someone wants to give it a shot writing and testing the EA in MT4, that's it for me...
LOL, yeah right, xavier40 is a great coder. :p
Basically I am giving up. Never really believed in Forex trading. Price could go down or up, 50/50 chance, ALWAYS. Never mind if you are in a down- or uptrend, touching RSI2, above EMA 200 or whatever. Price has no memory of the past.
I look for statistical mechanical trading mechanisms and Forex doesn't do it.
Volatility trading does.
Best to all of you.
No market traded like this is any different than Forex, other than the item(s) being traded. Every single one of them always has that possibility. Like trading the other markets, it is all about probabilities. There are statistical mechanical trading strategies for all traded markets. If you do not find one that works for you in Forex, then find one in another market that works how you want it to, and adapt it for Forex, problem solved.