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Entire point of trading with an EA???

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jcarrion
13
jcarrion 2010.07.12 03:47 

hi People .

 

I got a doubt which corrodes me .

 

As everyone here , I am making  a suposedly ingenious EA , able to trade signals , buy low and sell high .. .

ok. 

If anyone would really be able to make an EA that returns 50.000% p.a  ... what is the entire point of entering the competition ?

I mean , is anyone gonna to really risk a 50.000 % anual return EA for earning around 40UK$ ???

 

Obviously there is something missing here. Something that I don't grasp entirely .  I have an EA that makes 550.000 in 12 months starting from 10.000 .  And I know jack shit of  FX trading . -ok , I am a good programmer  , a professional  one for kinda embebbed systems indeed- but by simply reading a few docs here and there abt FX trading ... does It make any sense that I can develop  an EA that consistenly makes over 1/2mil a year starting from 10K?

 ,, and tested in every year since the Euro came up. 

 

..and developed a just Week?

 

Why is not everyone over here rich yet ? 

 

Am I missing something ? 

Vladimir
5903
Vladimir 2010.07.13 01:59  
jcarrion:

I have an EA that makes 550.000 in 12 months starting from 10.000 .  does It make any sense that I can develop  an EA that consistenly makes over 1/2mil a year starting from 10K?

 ,, and tested in every year since the Euro came up. 

Why is not everyone over here rich yet ? 

 

 

How do you know that your EA is capable of earning so much money in real life? From backtesting on history? On the same history that was used to optimize the EA? Optimized historical performance means little for real-life profitability. You have to conduct a forward test on data not used for optimization. And even better, in real-time on real money. And if you still get $500k from $10k, then yes, your EA can do that.

The other side of your question is whether it is possible for everybody to earn so much money? Not everybody. Obviously, somebody's gain is somebody's loss. So, theoretically, everybody can't win. But, selected individuals, who designed a successful EA, can win so much. It is very hard, but why not?

By the way, it brings me to a question that bothers me almost every day. Here in US, media says that banks lost lots of money on defaulted mortgages, on CDO derivatives, bad debt etc. 3-4 banks become bankrupt every week. Media also says that regular folks lost too: their homes were foreclosed, they can't pay their debts, etc. Government had to print a lot of money to help banks, insurance companies, car companies, low-end folks, etc. But here is my question: if everybody lost money in this economic downturn, where did all this money go? Somebody was supposed to win. Who is this mysterious person or organization that got rich on everybody else's troubles?

jcarrion
13
jcarrion 2010.07.13 04:41  

>>>>Government had to print a lot of money to help banks, insurance companies, car companies, low-end folks, etc. But here is my question: if everybody lost >>>>money in this economic downturn, where did all this money go? Somebody was supposed to win. Who is this mysterious person or organization that got rich >>>>on everybody else's troubles

  he he he .,. It happened just the same here in Spain.  People are losing their houses like mofos. 

All the "missing"  money is on the pockets of the people which sold a house JUST before the bubble bursted.  People which sold a timber made shit for 500.000 when it was  worth just 10.000 .   

The victim is the idiot that bought the last one . And the bank who lent the money to the Idiot.  .It is the previous seller the one which takes the money.

 

Anyway .. back to the Algorithm.... , It works (I mean , make lots of money ) consistently every month /year from the past history ... I can't understand how can I "encode" all the details of  6 years of trading into barely 90 Parameters!. It simple doesnt add up !.  With 90 figures ,I can't represent the whole past story of EUR/USD . There is no chance that I just simply "encoded" a taylor made algorithm for the 2003-2010 USDEUR trading .   therefore , It "should" work.

and indeed It does. Testing in "demo" but on real time , Its making 500 a day starting from 5000$. (hey , I start sounding  like one of those scammers selling robots ! ).

 

The only remaining catch is that AlPari * my FX provider*   seems to have larger spreads for "mini and standard" acocunts .. that would screw up my system. However, the "professional" account (>0 pips ) just requires 20.000 ... so I ll probbably give it a go in not so long !.

 Cheeeeeeeeers

 

Jacob Funk
92
Jacob Funk 2011.01.20 23:05  
jcarrion:

>>>>Government had to print a lot of money to help banks, insurance companies, car companies, low-end folks, etc. But here is my question: if everybody lost >>>>money in this economic downturn, where did all this money go? Somebody was supposed to win. Who is this mysterious person or organization that got rich >>>>on everybody else's troubles

  he he he .,. It happened just the same here in Spain.  People are losing their houses like mofos. 

All the "missing"  money is on the pockets of the people which sold a house JUST before the bubble bursted.  People which sold a timber made shit for 500.000 when it was  worth just 10.000 .   

The victim is the idiot that bought the last one . And the bank who lent the money to the Idiot.  .It is the previous seller the one which takes the money.

 

Anyway .. back to the Algorithm.... , It works (I mean , make lots of money ) consistently every month /year from the past history ... I can't understand how can I "encode" all the details of  6 years of trading into barely 90 Parameters!. It simple doesnt add up !.  With 90 figures ,I can't represent the whole past story of EUR/USD . There is no chance that I just simply "encoded" a taylor made algorithm for the 2003-2010 USDEUR trading .   therefore , It "should" work.

and indeed It does. Testing in "demo" but on real time , Its making 500 a day starting from 5000$. (hey , I start sounding  like one of those scammers selling robots ! ).

 

The only remaining catch is that AlPari * my FX provider*   seems to have larger spreads for "mini and standard" acocunts .. that would screw up my system. However, the "professional" account (>0 pips ) just requires 20.000 ... so I ll probbably give it a go in not so long !.

 Cheeeeeeeeers

 

Watch out, here (if you havent already done this). Your model can, in fact, encode enough data to win majorly if you use an optimizer, in far less than 90 parameters. The reason this is true is because there are a limited number of 'movements' your standard model will open a position for. Even if all you do is optimize stop loss and take profit, you're already taking the best possible outcome of buys and sells for that period. Once you have that, your other parameters will adjust to increase volatility, and not profit generation. If you optimized with lot sizes, then they'll be at their max. If you used a random indicator (say, momentum) you won't be able to tell whether its optimization increased your chances of winning, or increased the odds. This is one of the biggest dangers in forex trading, assuming that a model is predictive when it's just as descriptive as possible.
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