Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku is very near to the porice trying to cross it from above to below for good downtrend. But the price is above the cloud and in case of downtrend - the price will come to inside the cloud for ranging market condition. But if the price will continue with bullish so it will have to break few very strong resistance lines on the way to uptrend : 99.57 and 100.45. So, the direction of this pair will be fully based on fundamental news events for this week.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDJPY price movement for the next week)
2013-08-05 05:00 GMT | [JPY - Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey]
2013-08-05 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2013-08-06 05:00 GMT | [JPY - Leading Economic Index]
2013-08-06 12:30 GMT | [USD - Trade Balance]
2013-08-06 17:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Speaks]
2013-08-07 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Current Account]
2013-08-08 03:00 GMT | [JPY - BoJ Interest Rate]
2013-08-08 05:00 GMT | [JPY - Eco Watchers Survey]
2013-08-08 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Tertiary Industry Index]
2013-08-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - Consumer Price Index]
2013-08-09 05:00 GMT | [JPY - Consumer Confidence Index]
2013-08-09 05:30 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : depends on fundamental news events
Price came to below kumo (Ichimoku cloud) which is indicating the primary bearish market condition for H4 timeframe :
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDJPY, H4, 2013.08.05
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
usdjpy h4 below kumo
H1 timeframe: the price is already below kumo with flat market condition for now :
USDJPY, H1, 2013.08.05
USDJPY H1 below kumo with flat
As to D1 timeframe so the situation is really interesting: Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is trying to cross historical price but on open bar for now sorry. Seems - we need to wait for 1 or 2 days to be fully sure about sell trades to open. But anyway - the price will come to Ichimoku cloud at the first (and as we know - if the price is inside Ichimoku cloud so it is "signal" for ranging market condition) :
USDJPY, D1, 2013.08.05
USDJPY D1 breakdown started on open bar
USDJPY, M5, 2013.08.05
newdigital, 2013.08.05 16:46
2013-08-05 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. Service Sector Expands At Faster Than Expected Rate In July :
Activity in the U.S. service sector grew at a faster rate in the
month of July, according to a report released by the Institute for
Supply Management on Monday, with the index of activity in the sector
rising by much more than economists had anticipated.
The ISM said
its non-manufacturing index jumped to 56.0 in July from 52.2 in June,
with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the service sector.
Economists had been expecting the index to show a more modest increase
to a reading of 53.0.
With the bigger than expected increase, the
non-manufacturing index rose to its highest level since a matching
reading in February.
"According to the NMI, 16 non-manufacturing
industries reported growth in July," said Anthony Nieves, chair of the
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Respondents' comments
are mostly positive about business conditions and the overall economy."
improvement by the headline index was partly due to a notable increase
by the business activity index, which surged up to 60.4 in July from
51.7 in June.
The new orders index also showed a substantial increase for the month, climbing to 57.7 in July from 50.8 in the previous month.
report also showed that the prices index jumped to 60.1 in July from
52.5 in June, indicating that prices increased at a significantly faster
Meanwhile, the employment index dipped to 53.2 in July from
54.7 in June, suggesting a modest slowdown in the pace of job growth in
the service sector.
Thursday, the ISM released a separate report showing that its index of
activity in the manufacturing sector jumped to a two-year high in July.
ISM said its purchasing managers index surged up 55.4 in July from 50.9
in June, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in manufacturing
activity. Economists had expected the index to climb to a reading of
With the much bigger than expected increase, the ISM's
manufacturing index rose to its highest level since reaching 55.8 in
June of 2011.
James Knightley, senior economist at ING, said,
"Taking the two ISM series together it paints a relatively upbeat growth
picture, but we remain concerned over a lack of agreement on the fiscal
"This has the potential to drag on and given what
happened in 2011 we suspect that the Fed will err on the side of caution
rather than go headlong into a September taper whatever happens," he
Yes, this is ranging market condition on H4 - see the images :
USDJPY, H4, 2013.08.06
usdjpy h4 ranging
Just something about RSI indicator related to USDJPY :
USDJPY, M5, 2013.08.07
enter exit trend following
Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
newdigital, 2013.08.07 12:55
Relative Strength Index or RSI is the
most popular indicator used in Forex trading. It is an oscillator
indicator which oscillates between 0 -100. The RSI is a trend following
indicator. It indicates the strength of the trend, values above 50 indicate a bullish trend while values below 50 indicate bearish Forex trend.
The RSI measures momentum of a currency.
The centerline for the RSI is 50,crossover of the centerline indicate shifts from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
Above 50, the buyers have greater momentum than the
sellers and price of a currency will keep going up as long as RSI stays
Below 50, the sellers have greater momentum than the
buyers and price of a currency will keep going downwards as long as RSI
stays below 50.
In the example above, when the RSI is below 50, the
price kept moving in a downward trend. The price continues to move down
as long as RSI was below 50. When the RSI moved above 50 it showed that
the momentum had changed from sell to buy and that the downtrend had
When the RSI moved to above 50 the price started to
move upwards and the trend changed from bearish to bullish. The price
continued to move upwards and the RSI remained above 50 afterwards.
From the example above, when the trend was bullish
sometimes the RSI would turn downwards but it would not go below 50,
this shows that these temporary moves are just retracements because
during all these time the price trend was generally upwards. As long as
RSI does not move to below 50 the trend remains intact. This is the
reason the 50 mark is used to demarcate the signal between bullish and
The RSI uses 14 day period as the default RSI period,
this is the period recommended by J Welles Wilders when he introduced
the RSI. Other common periods used by forex trader is the 9 and 25 day
The RSI period used depends on the time frame you are
using, if you are using day time frame the RSI 14 will represent 14
days, while if you use 1 hour the RSI 14 will represent 14 hours. For
our example we shall use 14 day moving average, but for your trading
you can substitute the day period with the time frame you are trading.
Center-line: The center-line for RSI
is 50. A value above 50 implies that a currency is in a bullish phase
as average gains are greater than average losses. Values below 50
indicate a bearish phase.
Just about BoJ Interest Rate - even unchanged interest rate can produce such a price movement: 13 pips to one side and 23 pips to the other side :
USDJPY, M5, 2013.08.08
newdigital, 2013.08.08 08:38
2013-08-08 03:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - BoJ Interest Rate]
Bank Of Japan Keeps Stimulus Program Unchanged
Japan's central bank announced on Thursday its decision to keep its monetary easing program unchanged, as the economy has begun to recover moderately and inflation data has turned positive.
It was breakdown for D1 but I missed this movement sorry
USDJPY, D1, 2013.08.08
usdjpy d1 breakdown
newdigital, 2013.08.08 15:57
2013-08-08 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Jobless Claims (Initial Claims)]
If actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Edge Up To 333,000, Below Estimate :
First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits showed a modest
increase in the week ended August 3rd, according to a report released by
the Labor Department on Thursday, although claims still came in below
The report showed that initial jobless claims
edged up to 333,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's
revised figure of 328,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to climb to 336,000 from the 326,000 originally reported for the previous week.
USDJPY, D1, 2013.08.09
usdjpy bearish finished?
newdigital, 2013.08.09 06:52
A Runaway USD/JPY Move Few Would Expect :
Guest Commentary: How Far Will USD/JPY Fall?
"From a fundamental perspective, the reasons for buying USDJPY, including
Fed tapering and BoJ easing, remain intact, but at this stage, we would
prefer to wait for the currency pair to stabilize and start to turn
higher before buying."
Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management
So, this is what we are finally having for this pair for now.
D1 timeframe: primary bearish.
H4 timeframe - bearish with secondary flat :
USDJPY, H4, 2013.08.09
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