D1 correction within primary bullish was started on open bar together with triangle pattern: price is trying to break 0.9320 and 0.9261 support levels for the correction to be continuing.
H4 price is on reversal from bullish to bearish trying to go away from ranging zone (the cloud of Ichimoku indicator) having 2 strong support levels on the way.
W1 - market rally within primary bearish is going on.
D1 price will break 0.9261 support level from above to below so the correction will be continuing with good possibility of price reversal.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-04-22 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CB Leading Index]
2014-04-22 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sale]
2014-04-23 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CPI]
2014-04-23 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-23 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - New Home Sales]
2014-04-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
2014-04-25 13:55 GMT (or 15:55 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : correction
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.04.18 22:34
newdigital, 2014.04.21 06:52
Finalizing FTA Deal will See Trade Volumes between Aussie Dollar and Yuan Go up
Australia Prime Minister Tony Abbott is expected to sign the final
terms to a trade agreement between China and Australia that will see
transactions volumes between yuan and Australian dollar soar and lower
the cost of business between the two countries.
Presently, the Aussie is one of the four currencies that can be fully
converted into the Chinese yuan. The Chinese government is currently
considering turning the renminbi into an international currency,
reported the Australian.
The deal to convert the two currencies was signed a year ago though
the trading volumes between the yuan and the Aussie dollar have started
to stabilize after initially surging. Currency flows are estimated to be
worth $US2.5 billion per month, up from around US$300 million before
former prime minister Julia Gillard signed the convertibility deal in
Analysts had expected the turnover to increase every month as more
Australian firms scaled up their Chinese exports. Currently, China is
Australia’s No. 1 trading partner, with volumes valued at more than
US$130 billion per year.
Other currencies that convert directly to the yuan
include the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the US dollar. The
deal between Australia and China ensures Australian export firms can
receive payments in the Aussie dollar. The full convertibility lowers
the transaction costs involved in using other currencies to settle the
payments. Certain exporters say that the agreement cut the transaction
costs by 10 percent.
“The trading between the dollar and the renminbi has flatlined over
the past couple of months but it will take off again, the next obvious
step is to see Sydney become a renminbi hub,” said Andrew Whitford, the
head of Westpac in China. “I’m a very strong advocate for Sydney to
become that hub. There is certainly a need for that to happen.”
newdigital, 2014.04.19 12:12
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar’s month-long winning streak ran into resistance
last week as the build-up in RBA policy expectations stumbled. A Credit
Suisse measure of investors’ priced-in policy bets over the coming 12
months declined for the first time in three weeks. A potentially
conflicting set of fundamental event risk in the week ahead promises to
keep driving policy outlook speculation and keep volatility elevated.
On the domestic news-flow front, the spotlight will be on first-quarter CPIdata.
Expectations suggest the headline year-on-year inflation rate will
rise to 3.2 percent from 2.7 percent recorded in the three months
through December 2013, marking the highest level in over two years.
Data from Citigroup shows Australian economic news-flow has
increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since
mid-February, suggesting economists are underestimating Australia’s
place in the business cycle.
That opens the door for an upside surprise. Such a result may go a
long way toward rebuilding support on from the RBA policy outlook and
driving the Aussie higher.
Externally, a busy docket of US activity data will help inform bets on
the continuity of the Fed’s effort to “taper” QE asset purchases. Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence
figures are in the spotlight. Economic data outcomes from the world’s
largest economy showed a notable improvement relative to expectations
over the past two weeks. If that trend continues, ebbing doubt about the
continued withdrawal of Fed stimulus. That may highlight the immediacy
of the Fed’s move to narrow the policy gap compared with the RBA’s
apparent preference for inaction in the near term, weighing on AUD/USD.
newdigital, 2014.04.22 17:00
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop To Lowest Level Since July 2012
Existing home sales in the U.S. showed a modest decrease in the
month of March, according to a report released by the National
Association of Realtors on Tuesday, although the annual rate of sales
still came in above economist estimates.
The report said existing
home sales edged down 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of 4.59 million in March from 4.60 million in February. Economists had
been expecting existing home sales to drop to an annual rate of 4.56
With the modest decrease, existing home sales fell for
the seventh time in eight months and hit their lowest level since July
NAR also said the rate of existing home sales is now 7.5 percent below the 4.96 million-unit pace in March of 2013.
modest monthly decrease came as increases in existing home sales in the
Northeast and Midwest were offset by declines in sales in the West and
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, noted that current existing home sales activity is underperforming by historical standards.
really should be stronger levels of home sales given our population
growth," Yun said. "In contrast, price growth is rising faster than
historical norms because of inventory shortages."
showed that the median existing home price was $198,500 in March, up 5.4
percent from $188,300 in February and up 7.9 percent from $184,000 in
the same month a year ago.
noted that distressed homes accounted for 14 percent of March sales,
down from 16 percent in February and 21 percent in March of 2013.
"With rising home equity, we expect distressed homes to decline to a single-digit market share later this year," Yun said.
report also showed that there were 1.99 million existing homes
available for sale at the end of March compared to the 1.90 million
available for sale at the end of February.
The March housing inventory represents 5.2 month of supply at the current sales pace, up from 5.0 months in February.
Wednesday morning, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new home sales in the month of March.
expect new home sales to climb to an annual rate of 455,000 in March
after dropping to a rate of 440,000 in February.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.04.22
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5 :12 pips price movement by USD - Existing Home Sale news event
newdigital, 2014.04.20 17:35
newdigital, 2014.04.23 06:09
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia CPI Rises 0.6% On Quarter In Q1
Consumer prices in Australia collected 0.6 percent on quarter in the
first quarter of 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on
That was weaker than forecasts for 0.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous three months.
most significant price rises this quarter were for tobacco (+6.7
percent), automotive fuel (+4.1 percent), secondary education (+6.0
percent), tertiary education (+4.3 percent), medical and hospital
services (+1.9 percent) and pharmaceutical products (+6.1 percent).
rises were partially offset by falls in prices for furniture (-4.3
percent), maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (-3.3 percent),
international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4 percent) and
domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.4 percent).
The tobacco price increase was caused by the federal excise tax rise that went into effect December 1.
Education prices have risen with the commencement of the new school year, the bureau said.
for medical and hospital services and pharmaceutical products were a
result of the cyclical reduction in the proportion of patients who
qualify for subsidies under the Medicare Benefits Scheme and
Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme at the start of each calendar year.
a yearly basis, consumer prices gained 2.9 percent - also below
expectations for 3.2 percent after showing 2.6 percent in the three
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.04.23
AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips price movement by AUD - CPI news event
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