How much profit for an EA to be acceptable commercially?

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Hi,


Is like 10 year performance of average 6% per month a sellable (or marketable) EA?


It is not a scalper.


Worst net consecutive total drawdown is 700 pips, and happened only a couple of times.


I will appreciate your comments (please be honest and tell me if a 6% profit monthly is a joke and is so small or miniscule).


below, separated buys and sells, on a fixed 0.01 lot. on EurUsd.


For money management, due to test statistics below, lot for worse case scenario is: 1.0 lot for every 800$ principal.

long positions
Bars in test 63124 Ticks modelled 30154971 Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 802




Initial deposit 10000.00



Total net profit 56.61 Gross profit 153.58 Gross loss -96.97
Profit factor 1.58 Expected payoff 0.16

Absolute drawdown 7.16 Maximal drawdown 8.90 (0.09%) Relative drawdown 0.09% (8.90)

Total trades 357 Short positions (won %) 0 (0.00%) Long positions (won %) 357 (66.39%)

 Profit trades (% of total) 237 (66.39%) Loss trades (% of total) 120 (33.61%)
Largest profit trade 3.37 loss trade -3.34
Average profit trade 0.65 loss trade -0.81
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 9 (7.34) consecutive losses (loss in money) 6 (-2.73)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 7.89 (6) consecutive loss (count of losses) -4.99 (2)
Average consecutive wins 3 consecutive losses 1




shorts
Bars in test 63124 Ticks modelled 30154971 Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 802




Initial deposit 10000.00



Total net profit 14.89 Gross profit 133.31 Gross loss -118.42
Profit factor 1.13 Expected payoff 0.04

Absolute drawdown 4.92 Maximal drawdown 15.28 (0.15%) Relative drawdown 0.15% (15.28)

Total trades 353 Short positions (won %) 353 (60.62%) Long positions (won %) 0 (0.00%)

 Profit trades (% of total) 214 (60.62%) Loss trades (% of total) 139 (39.38%)
Largest profit trade 4.02 loss trade -4.86
Average profit trade 0.62 loss trade -0.85
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 15 (5.84) consecutive losses (loss in money) 6 (-5.96)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 6.89 (5) consecutive loss (count of losses) -7.00 (2)
Average consecutive wins 3 consecutive losses 2

 

J

This may be a starting point but you cant expect much from this, even for your own use

Profit factor is too low, especially on shorts..

There is also the potential difference in performance on forward trading compared to backtesting

Its usually worse on live trading, the only question is how much worse, e.g. is this thing sensitive to spread changes on open or close of orders, etc, etc

Being market-able is another set of requirements!

Typical commercial EA buyers want more frequent action and more consecutive wins...

Good Luck

-BB-

 
BarrowBoy wrote >>

J

This may be a starting point but you cant expect much from this, even for your own use

Profit factor is too low, especially on shorts..

There is also the potential difference in performance on forward trading compared to backtesting

Its usually worse on live trading, the only question is how much worse, e.g. is this thing sensitive to spread changes on open or close of orders, etc, etc

Being market-able is another set of requirements!

Typical commercial EA buyers want more frequent action and more consecutive wins...

Good Luck

-BB-

thanks for the comment.

 

It isn't so easy do an EA really profitable.. look my EA (http://danielvc.mt4live.com/  > 200% using an account with 487 dollars at Tadawul)... I've spent 2 years developing my EA and just last year

this start to work in real account (the guys from MQLForum know me.. and they know what I'm speaking about).. then brow, then try, and try

then whe you think that you have a good EA.. throw at garbage and start again.... trying, and never give up...

Is necessary so much of study to do a great EA... remember, NEVER GIVE UP,

BEst regards,

BearNaked

 
bearnaked wrote >>

It isn't so easy do an EA really profitable.. look my EA (http://danielvc.mt4live.com/ > 200% using an account with 487 dollars at Tadawul)... I've spent 2 years developing my EA and just last year

this start to work in real account (the guys from MQLForum know me.. and they know what I'm speaking about).. then brow, then try, and try

then whe you think that you have a good EA.. throw at garbage and start again.... trying, and never give up...

Is necessary so much of study to do a great EA... remember, NEVER GIVE UP,

BEst regards,

BearNaked

I have been trying out during free time for a year now.

This is the first that I made that has impressed me, but is so poor in making money.

Its weakness is on heavy non-directional long-terms like year 2008 of eur usd.

Re: yours

Good for you! So are you selling it now? Are you trading with real money?

 

Hi,

I made a little improvement on it

Any comment on it?

On what areas would I need to improve on this one?

I ran it at fixed .01 lot, from 2000 to 2009, at eurusd h1.



 
jcadong5:

Hi,

I made a little improvement on it

Any comment on it?

On what areas would I need to improve on this one?

I ran it at fixed .01 lot, from 2000 to 2009, at eurusd h1.




Well it's steady but would you really be happy with these returns? You could buy some CD's at the bank and get this much guaranteed to you. I think you're system looks profitable but you should try to increase the signals, go to a smaller timeframe, or up the ante.


Your curve is great though. Just some money management could help?

 

No risk, no real profits: yeah, I have to agree with somebody....

If you are going to play like a scary cat, then put your money in a CD or Money Market instead.

People play to make it big and you play not to lose big but a little at a time.

I hate to break it to you but a little at a time can add to big loses!

6% per month ain't going to make it; try at least 10%, 20% per month is average.....

 
i have always wondered what kind of gross loss is acceptable?
 
LanBar:
i have always wondered what kind of gross loss is acceptable?

No real "line in the sand" definition regarding maximum gross loss...but trades that become losses are also trades that increase your ROR (rate of return) variance. And risk of losses in the future are all about your variance of returns in the past.

Minimizing your risk of ruin

Money management: Understanding the game

So gross losses are one of those metrics that is giving you feedback regarding the range of performance you can expect from your EA in the future.
 

Ruin is ruin regardless of speed.

The faster the better because you can learn from it now instead of later.

I hate delay lessons because improvement should happen today not later!

The faster my improvement, the faster I can make more money.

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