Food for thought and brainstorming - page 2

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Cheong Mun Pong
206
Cheong Mun Pong  
Then u explain to me properly by using my scenario instead,really confused here.
My question here is based on backtest, 30% win if i buy, and 30% lost if i sell,at the same entry point.
Hence if i sell,the 30% accounted for the win if i buy at the entry point is not accounted,i understand,the 30% if i sell and win will not coincide with the 30% that win if buy,but then what happened to the rest of 40% which keep on playing hide and seek with us,which react in different direction even if we set the trade in the opposite direction
Simon Gniadkowski
17271
Simon Gniadkowski  
mp88:
Then u explain to me properly by using my scenario instead,really confused here.
My question here is based on backtest, 30% win if i buy, and 30% lost if i sell,at the same entry point.
Hence if i sell,the 30% accounted for the win if i buy at the entry point is not accounted,i understand,the 30% if i sell and win will not coincide with the 30% that win if buy,but then what happened to the rest of 40% which keep on playing hide and seek with us,which react in different direction even if we set the trade in the opposite direction

When you trade you Buy at the Ask price and Sell at the Bid price,  the difference between the Bid and Ask is the Spread.  So if you place a buy trade (at  Ask)  and immediately close it the trade is exited at Bid,  so you have lost/paid the spread,  this will happen on all trades,  you always have to "pay" the Spread.  So even if you reverse the strategy you pay the Spread on each trade,  to consider your results without considering for the Spread is incorrect and will lead you to think that you can make a bad strategy into a good one by simply reversing it . . . 

In your example in the posts above,  what is the Spread ? 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
116886
Sergey Golubev  
mp88:
Then u explain to me properly by using my scenario instead,really confused here.
My question here is based on backtest, 30% win if i buy, and 30% lost if i sell,at the same entry point.
Hence if i sell,the 30% accounted for the win if i buy at the entry point is not accounted,i understand,the 30% if i sell and win will not coincide with the 30% that win if buy,but then what happened to the rest of 40% which keep on playing hide and seek with us,which react in different direction even if we set the trade in the opposite direction

You win are you lose. With buy or with sell - win or lose. And there are buy and sell only. No hedging here in MT5.

You have buy only or sell only on the same time. So, your 30% + 30% should be equal 100% :) If I am wrong so sorry :)

if you have 30% win if buy - it does not mean that you will have 30% lose when sell. because there is no connection between buy and sell on this way. There is only one connection between buy and sell: trading system based on indicators or some strategy. because on some systems - you can win if sell, and you can win if buy ... and it depends on the trading system you are testing.  

Cheong Mun Pong
206
Cheong Mun Pong  
newdigital:

You win are you lose. With buy or with sell - win or lose. And there are buy and sell only. No hedging here in MT5.

You have buy only or sell only on the same time. So, your 30% + 30% should be equal 100% :) If I am wrong so sorry :)

if you have 30% win if buy - it does not mean that you will have 30% lose when sell. because there is no connection between buy and sell on this way. There is only one connection between buy and sell: trading system based on indicators or some strategy. because on some systems - you can win if sell, and you can win if buy ... and it depends on the trading system you are testing.  

My scenario

I set tp and sl at 40pips for every single trade, which means the distance to reach floor and roof is constant.

I set buy if at certain condition,with sl and tp and 40pips, it hits loss.

My question is,since my trigger trade is at the same point, if i change buy to sell, why still i cant win, as shown if i set buy for the given condition my winning rate is 30%, and if i set the condition reach(which means at the same entry point) i change it to sell, why i cant achieve the opposite which is 70% win, as provided my sl and tp are constant, and historical chart are constant as well.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
116886
Sergey Golubev  

You mean: if you change "buy to sell" or "sell to buy" to any very losing EA - you will get profitable EA? Not, it does not work. Because any EA is the system. Why system? because market is changed all the time. I mean: what is good for now - may be - not for good the next minute/hour/day. Because market is changed. Spread is the second reason (RaptorUK explained it).

You are openning buy or sell because of what? because of some strategy, or thinking ... what are you proposing is most likely to be a pyramiding. But with no any hedge options - it is martingale or simple classical re-entering. And it works only if you are openning the trades based on some system.

Example: you open buy with tp 40 and sl 40. Price is going against you with very near stop loss taken. So, what to do? Well ... open the other trade on same direction with sl 40 and tp 60 for example. If same lot size - re-entering. If increased lot size - martingale.

price is moved all the time ... you know ... 

Simon Gniadkowski
17271
Simon Gniadkowski  
mp88:

My scenario

I set tp and sl at 40pips for every single trade, which means the distance to reach floor and roof is constant.

I set buy if at certain condition,with sl and tp and 40pips, it hits loss.

My question is,since my trigger trade is at the same point, if i change buy to sell, why still i cant win, as shown if i set buy for the given condition my winning rate is 30%, and if i set the condition reach(which means at the same entry point) i change it to sell, why i cant achieve the opposite which is 70% win, as provided my sl and tp are constant, and historical chart are constant as well.

What currency pair are you trading and what is the Spread ?  what is 40 pips ?  is it 0.0040 or 0.00040 ?  or 0.40 or 0.040 ?
Cheong Mun Pong
206
Cheong Mun Pong  
newdigital:

You mean: if you change "buy to sell" or "sell to buy" to any very losing EA - you will get profitable EA? Not, it does not work. Because any EA is the system. Why system? because market is changed all the time. I mean: what is good for now - may be - not for пщщв the next minute/hour/day. Because market is changed. Spread is the second reason (RaptorUK explained it).

You are openning buy or sell because of what? because of some stratefy, or thinking ... what are you proposing is most likely pyramiding. but with no any hedge options - it is martingale or simple classical re-entering. And it works only if you are openning the trades based on some system.

Example: you open buy with tp 40 and sl 40. Price is going against you with very near stop loss taken. So, what to do? Well ... open the other trade on same direction with sl 40 and tp 60 for example. If same lot size - re-entering. If increased lot size - martingale.

price is moved all the time ... you know ... 

hi, thanks for your reply

that is not what i meant and the scenario here.

the thing here is we are applying our ea on a historical data,which is fixed and known pattern and also its value. 40pips top and floor, if i buy at that point and lose means it touches the other direction of 40pips first.

so if at the same entry point we change our direction to sell,why the chart doesnt hit the t/p as it hits the s/l if i applied buy as in the previous test

Cheong Mun Pong
206
Cheong Mun Pong  
RaptorUK:
What currency pair are you trading and what is the Spread ?  what is 40 pips ?  is it 0.0040 or 0.00040 ?  or 0.40 or 0.040 ?

eur usd, 0.00040

my leverage1:500

0.1 lot size with 100pips = 10usd

Simon Gniadkowski
17271
Simon Gniadkowski  
mp88:

eur usd, 0.00040

my leverage1:500

0.1 lot size with 100pips = 10usd

OK,  so your TP & SL are 4 pips or 40 points away.  Are they both 40 points away from your entry price or from the Bid price ?

Lets take the case of a Sell,  a Sell is placed at Bid,  so if you set your SL and TP relative to the Bid price and your spread is 1 pip ( 10 points ) then your possible profit is 30 point and your possible loss is 50 points,  so your R:R is 50:30 or  1.66 ,  looking at my chart on the previous page a coin toss with an R:R of 1.66 would give a WR of 62.5%,  meaning that unless you have a WR of grater than 62.5% you will not make money.  Now if instead of Selling you bought at the same price and had the exact same SL & TP you would have bought at Ask,  and will be selling at Bid, so now your potential profit is 50 pints and your risk is 30 points, so your R:R is now 30:50 or  0.6,  again looking at my chart a R:R of 0.6 will result in a WR of  37.5%  meaning that to make a profit you need a WR of greater than 37.5%

Alain Verleyen
40780
Alain Verleyen  
mp88:

My scenario

I set tp and sl at 40pips for every single trade, which means the distance to reach floor and roof is constant.

I set buy if at certain condition,with sl and tp and 40pips, it hits loss.

My question is,since my trigger trade is at the same point, if i change buy to sell, why still i cant win, as shown if i set buy for the given condition my winning rate is 30%, and if i set the condition reach(which means at the same entry point) i change it to sell, why i cant achieve the opposite which is 70% win, as provided my sl and tp are constant, and historical chart are constant as well.

You seem very obstinate ;-) All responses have already given to you, but maybe not enough clearly evidently. I try once more.:

Main reason that you idea doesn't work is SPREAD. Why ?

Take an example. EURUSD, sl & tp at 40 pips (0.0040), fixed spread 2 pips (0.0002). 10 buy trades : 3 winning, 7 losing.

1. Take a winning one.
  • BUY at 1.3050 (Ask price, so Bid price is at that moment 1.3048). You win at 40 pips, so at 1.3090 (Bid price, so Ask price is at the moment 1.3092). Stoploss is at 1.3010, we can say that this price is never reach at the moment your Buy trade close with a win.
  • Inverse that trade by a Sell open at same moment : Open at 1.3048 (Bid), we now this trade don't reach 1.3008 ( as TP) before it reach 1.3088 (SL).
  • Conclusion : a winning become a losing. It's a fact.
2. Now take a losing buy. Is it become a winner ?
  • Say open at 1.3155 (Ask price, so Bid is 1.3153), loss at 1.3115 (SL at Bid price, so Ask is 1.3117). It never reach 1.3195 (TP, Bid price, so never reach ask 1.3197).
  • Reverse that. A sell at 1.3153, so TP is 1.3113 & SL is 1.3193 and these prices are Ask price. We know it never reach 1.3197 (Ask at moment of buy closing) but maybe it reach 1.3193, may be not. Other, we know Ask reach 1.3117 (buy closing at loss) but to win it must reach 1.3113. Reaches it ? You don't know, may be, may be not.
  • Conclusion : It all depend on the probability to reach SL & TP, we see we can't say anything with certitude about reversed buy losing into sell. With it this is probability ? Another debate.

Hope you are not lost in all that numbers and that help.

EDIT : take some time to write this, and I don't see last posts before.

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