Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for US Dollar Index - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.28 08:23

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "It will difficult to keep the market on pace for US hawkishness and thereby Dollar bullishness. First of all, it will be difficult to weave a fundamental path where the heat keeps rising for rate hike expectations. More systemically, the pull of complacency will be exceptionally strong on skepticism. While the week ahead is active for scheduled event risk, the backdrop for activity is stubbornly quiet. Add to that the anticipation of the Labor Day holiday the first Monday of September, and the perception of a seasonal inhibitor will readily open a crack in any conviction that attempts run more significant resistance for the Dollar."



Daily price is on breaking 95.59 resistance level to above for the bear market rally to be continuing with the bullish reversal target as 15-day high at 96.52.

Alternative, if the price breaks symmetric triangle pattern together with 94.08 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed, otherwise - ranging.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.10 09:49

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 11 - September 18 (based on the article)


The US dollar had a rough back-to-school week, but it made a comeback later on. Inflation data in the UK and the US, GDP data in New Zealand; rate decisions in the UK and employment data in the UK and Australia stand out. These are the top events on FX calendar.

  1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Economists expect CPI to rise further to 0.7% this time.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment is expected to rise again to 2.8% in September.
  3. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The number of unemployed is expected to increase by 1,700 in August.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  5. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. GDP growth in the second quarter is estimated at 1.1%.
  6. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Analysts expect a job gain of 15,200 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.7%.
  7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The bank is confident this move will reduce unemployment and improve the economic growth in the UK.
  8. US Retail Sales: Thursday, 12:30. Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.1% in August, while the core sales are expected to rise by 0.3%.
  9. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30.
  10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Philly Manufacturing activity index is expected to reach 1.1 in September.
  11. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to reach 262,000 this week.
  12. US Inflation data: Friday, 12:30. CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in August, while core CPI is estimated to gain 0.2%.
  13. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to 91 in August.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 11:59

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "In the event of full-scale risk aversion, the Dollar will not immediately jump to its haven status. Rather, the first phase of sentiment souring would be a diminished economic outlook and the subsequent loss of further yield potential. The more rapidly confidence falls apart, the better for USD as it will revive the absolute safe haven role. Sentiment however does not just hang on the Fed alone. We have seen volatility and volume rise through other contributions this past week. The BoJ’s quickly failing credibility along with the all-out doves could spark fears for the end of a stimulus-supported market boom. Brexit fears stirred this past week could infect deeper financial flaws. Or, the ‘animal spirits’ themselves could rise. Watch sentiment and the Fed through these tenuous times."



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