Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for S&P 500 - page 2

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Intra-Day Fundamentals - S&P 500: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-08-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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S&P 500 M5: price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event


M5 price broke 200 period SMA to above for the good bullish breakout: the price is testing 2180.25 resistance level for the intra-day bullish trend to be continuing.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.27 12:09

Stocks end mostly lower after Yellen speech (adapted from the article)

"Major U.S. indexes initially climbed after a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen that was bullish on the economy but gave no timetable for future rate increases. Then investors began to have second thoughts, wondering if an increase was possible as early as next month, and buyers turned to sellers."

  • "Yellen's speech on Friday notwithstanding, not everyone is convinced a rate hike is coming soon."
  • "She suggests the economy is improving, but the GDP numbers for the past three quarters are closer to 1 percent than three percent," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at R.W. Baird. "That is very anemic."
  • "A report early in the day from the Commerce Department showed GDP, or gross domestic product, for the second quarter rose by a revised 1.1 percent, slightly lower than initially forecast."


"The S&P 500 slipped 3.43 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,169.04. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 53.01 points, or 0.3 percent, to 18,395.40. The Nasdaq composite rose 6.71 points, or 0.1 percent, to 5,218.92."


"In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.2 percent after consumer prices fell the most in three years in July. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.4 percent."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.07 15:15

S&P 500 Unshortable ? (based on the article)

S&P 500 increased by 0.45% for the month, 0.08% for a week, and it was decreased by 0.06% for the day. H4 intra-day price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA levels for the bullish market condition. The price is on testing with 2,185.75 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 2,172.75 support ot below so the bearish trend will be resumed.


  • "The S&P badly needs a correction to reset sentiment. Our portfolio wants more volatility and sentiment extremes."
  • "Oil has now rallied hard out of its probable half-cycle low. Energy stocks are holding up exceptionally well."
  • "Gold on Friday printed lower lows than in July, which may be a sign that a decline is around the corner. However gold should rally more than oil if the S&P corrects."

S&P 500 daily is on primary bullish market condition located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 2,185.75 resistance with 2,191.25 target to re-enter, and
  • 2,154.50 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.


The most likely scenarioo for the movement for September is the following: daily  price will be on ranging within 2,191/2,154.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.18 09:11

S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2016, 18.09 - 25.09: inside Ichimoku cloud for the bearish reversal or bullish trend to be resumed (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke of the border of Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition. The price was bounced from 2106.75 support level to above for the bullish ranging to be started within Ichimoku cloud.

"The market is off the lows, but still poorly postured with another possible lower high in the works (most visible on the intra-day time-frame). But there is also a higher low, too. The lower high, higher low could further contract towards a wedge, which would be inviting as it will likely lead to a tradeable breakout at some point. Still sitting in the one more leg lower camp at this time, but not willing to go too far out on a limb with this bias just yet."

If D1 price breaks 2106.75 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 2191.25 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
2189.002106.75
2191.25N/A

SUMMARY : breakdown

TREND : ranging

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