Discussion of article "Vladimir Tsyrulnik: The Essense of my program is improvisation! (ATC 2010)"
"If we take the probability of staying on page one = 100%, then becoming 19th= 100/2, 18th= 100/3, 17th=100/4, ... 1st = 100/20=5%. That would be so great!"
However, brothers of physics, let's calculate the probabilities.
There are 450 participants in the championship, so the probability of winning is 1/450=0.0022 or 0.2%. That's a simple estimate.
Let's take into account that not everyone will reach the finish line because of mistakes. A lot of Expert Advisors are not designed for aggressive race and cannot win, as the risks and stakes embedded in them are very small. It is more difficult to estimate the share of such advisors, but it is possible on the basis of past championships. Low-risk Expert Advisors do not manage to lose by the end of the championship, but successful Expert Advisors will not lose by the end of the championship either. The share of low-risk advisors among those who did not lose is 70 per cent. In total, 80% do not leak at the championship. Total, 0.7*0.8=0.56 or half of the participants drop out of the race. We get a more realistic estimate for the first place 1/(450/2)=0,0044. Or 0.4%.
There are some more honest tricks that can increase the probability of winning several times. Total 1% probability of winning is quite a realistic estimate. I'll agree with Vladimir's 5% as an estimate from above.
But, pardon me, sir, 100% to stay on the first page - it's no way. People with a deposit of more than $20,000 stay on the first page. That is, the Expert Advisor is guaranteed to double the deposit 100% in three months. Very roughly speaking, that's 400% interest per annum. Well, that's a bit of an overstatement.
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New article Vladimir Tsyrulnik: The Essense of my program is improvisation! (ATC 2010) is published:
Vladimir Tsyrulnik is the holder of one of the brightest highs of the current Championship. By the end of the third trading week Vladimir's Expert Advisor was on the sixth position. The IMEX algorithm the Expert Advisor is based on was developed by Vladimir. To learn more about this algorithm, we had an interview with Vladimir.
Do you sell your applications or do you develop them only for your own use?
About 3 years I've been using my products in my own trading without any definite system though. The results were quite good. Two years ago I was invited to a company who were interested in my models. In my opinion, this is the team with the necessary and reasonable division of functions. I am deeply convinced that the trading process is not only trading of the buy-sell kind, with hedging or something like that. For me it is implementation of a certain technology of using a complex mechanism for solving technical, organizational, commercial, analytical and other tasks. Only in this form the systematic moving towards success and implementing of long-term working projects is possible. And the built-in programming languages are so useful in this task.
Although, someone like to feel alone with the nature. And I admit that it is possible to achieve some success while going alone without using any additional tools. But it is a short-term success as a rule. Once working with one of dealing centers, I had the pleasure of earning $10,000 starting with $50 within a month. But this is not the trading process.
You participated in the Championships of 2007 and 2008 with different success. What was your experience of the competitions?
To participate in these two Championships I used my very first modeled idea and the same Expert Advisor, though different versions of it adjusted to the Championship rules. In 2007 I used quite a moderate risk management, but perhaps I hadn't completed the selection of working parameters to the required degree. The following year I made an unfortunate mistake in the logics of my Expert Advisor. In general, at that time I, probably like many participants, was thinking more about a trading algorithm, not about the sporting aspect. Personally I had imagined the upcoming process as a trading in live account conditions.
By 2009 I already had some confidence in the possibility o implementing an acceptable algorithm for participating in the contest, but the Championship was not held. Of course, the Championships give a certain impulse to self-development. But for me it is primarily the promotion, in the good sense, on sporting principles.
Author: Automated-Trading