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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for SILVER (XAG/USD) - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

SILVER (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Buy Silver - daily bullish ranging within 30-day high/low near bearish reversal area

Daily price is located above 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA for the ranging bullish within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 30-day high at 17.99 located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the primary bullish trend on the chart, and
  • 30-day low at 15.80 located near 100 SMA/200 SMA and near the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

The bearish reversal level for this timeframe si 15.32, and if the price breaks this level to below together with descending triangle pattern so the reversal to the bearish condition will be started.

If the price breaks 17.99 resistance to above on daily close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 15.32 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish reversal will be started.

If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 17.99 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 15.32 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
16.5415.32
17.99
13.72

SUMMARY : ranging to bearish reversal

TREND : ranging
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.10 16:55

SILVER (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: weekly ranging bearish, daily ranging bullish, 17.99 is the key level (adapted from the article)

Weekly price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA and below 200 SMA for the ranging bearish market condition. The price is on ranging within 17.99 resistance and 15.80 support levels waiting for the primary bearish trend to be continuing or for the bullish reversal to be started.

  • "The surge in silver prices continued yesterday as near-term momentum continued after the initial rally on last Friday’s awful NFPs. In our Thursday commentary, we noted the strong upward momentum ranking high among other rallies in recent years, and given its strength we expected further short-term gains, even if those gains were to come in a choppy fashion. The chop has yet to begin, but a pullback (perhaps the beginning of some chop) is not to be unexpected at this juncture.
    Silver is finding good resistance around the 17.31 level we had penciled in, so we will work with that as the first hurdle to overcome. Around 17.55 is the next top-side level to worry about, and then if things get really out of hand in the short-term we have the April peak at 18 (17.99 if you are counting pennies).
    "
  • "At this time, we will wait for a pullback and see how the market reacts to it before making further assessments. Risk of a pullback has become quite elevated, and while chasing momentum might be tempting, the reward is not likely to outweigh the reward."
  • "A decline back towards the 16.70/17 area would offer a spot for silver to reload for another drive higher. This zone represents solid support from April and May, while right around 17 itself is the upper parallel from the beginning of June. A drop below 16.70 would clearly undermine current momentum and alternate paths would need to be considered."


Resistance
Support
17.9915.80
N/A
13.32

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114907
Sergey Golubev  

SILVER (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis 2016, 19.06 - 26.06: intra-day/daily/weekly ranging bullish, monthly ranging bearish

Daily price is located to be above Senkou Span line in the bullish area. The price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 17.84 key resistance line located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 16.22 key support level located near and below Senkou Span line on the border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish area.

Chinkou Span line crossed the price many times in different direction for the possible ranging trend to be continuing, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the bullish condition in the near future, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the local downtrend as a secondary correction for the price to be established soon.

If D1 price will break 16.22 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 15.80 level as a nearest bearish target.
If D1 price will break 17.84 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 17.84 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 16.22 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish
Resistance
Support
17.8416.22
N/A
15.80

SUMMARY : ranging bullish

TREND : ranging
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.25 09:47

Brexit - "Investors overreacted," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon said Friday in an email (adapted from the article)


  • Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Wealth Management: "With last night’s result, that’s certainly unwinding. It caught the consensus on the wrong side yet again. Complacency had crept back into the markets."
  • Bob Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "Falling prices will unveil long-term buying opportunities, particularly for mid- and small-cap stocks. In the short term, markets will trade on emotion, so make sure you don’t end up becoming your portfolio’s worst enemy."
  • Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial: "Look for gold to do well as part of the safe-haven trade in addition to the move into treasuries."
  • JBC Energy analysts: "While we would argue that the British economy and its currency have not really lost 5 to 10% of its relative competitiveness overnight on a sustained basis, the level of uncertainty in the shorter term is definitely very problematic, and bets on any type of reversal do not sound like a good idea to us until the actual effects of last night’s decision become more tangible and quantifiable."
  • U.S. Bank Wealth Management's Wiegand: "In a low-growth environment, uncertainty or increased concerns really do create tremendous volatility."
  • Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments: "One could argue that the U.K. will remain in the EU for a minimum of two years, as formal notice that triggers the two-year countdown to leave most likely won't be given for months, but the markets don't wait. Instead, they are concerned about a disintegration of the EU, (and) they are concerned about a waning influence of the U.S. over the EU."
SILVER (XAG/USD) - daily bullish breakout, weekly bear market rally:
  • Daily price is on bullish breakout by 17.99 resistance level to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 17.09 support level to below so the secondary correction will be started with 15.80 level as a bearish reversal target.
  • Weekly price is on local uptrend a a bear market rally: the price broke 100 SMA to above with 17.99 resistance level to be tested for the rally to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 15.80 support level to below so the rally will be starped with the primary bearish market condition to be resumed on this weekly timeframe.



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114907
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.28 18:43

SILVER (XAG/USD) Intra-Day Technical Analysis - correctional ranging to 200 SMA bearish reversal area (adapted from the article)

H1 price is located above SMA with period 200 in the bullish area of the chart:

  • The price is on ranging within 17.99 "bullish continuation" resistance and 17.50 "bearish reversal" support.
  • "It might not turn into a rout, but a clean undercut into the upper 17.50s on the hourly should lead to near-term weakness towards 17.30/25. If selling becomes aggressive then a move could develop into strong support between 17.07 and 17.13."

If the price will break 17.99 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If price will break 17.50 support so the bearish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started with 17.06 target.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
17.9917.50
18.2717.06


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 17.50 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 17.99 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

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