Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 3

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.06 18:38

What is the Pip Cost for Gold and Silver?


  1. Gold: Symbol XAU/USD
    The pip cost for 1 ounce of Gold (minimum trade size) is $0.01 per pip.
  2. Silver: Symbol XAG/USD
    The pip cost for 50 ounces of Silver (minimum trade size) is $0.50 per pip

 

GOLD (XAU/USD) Long-Term Technical Analysis: watch for psy resistance level to be broken for bullish reversal

Weekly price is located between 100 period SMA (100-SMA) and 200 period SMA (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition: price is on secondary bear market rally since the middle of January this year with 100-SMA to be broken to above for the bearish ranging condition to be started on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

The price is ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1,300.00 psy resistance level located near and below 200-SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish market condition on the chart, and
  • 1,046.27 support level located far below 100-SMA/200-SMA area in the primary bearish trend on the chart.


RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging market condition.
  • If the price will break 1,300.00 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
  • If price will break 1,046.27 support so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
1,300.001,046.27
1,400.00N/A
The Long-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 1,300.00 resistance level for possible buy trade.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 16:17

Gold Rallies Despite Stronger-Than-Expected U.S. Jobs Data (based on the article)


  • "Gold prices are moderately higher in morning dealings Friday, despite a just-released U.S. employment report that was stronger than market expectations. “You just can’t keep a good market down,” quipped one gold market watcher. Gold prices pushed to a 13-month high above $1,275.00 in overnight dealings. April Comex gold was last up $10.70 at $1,269.00 an ounce. May Comex silver was last up $0.349 at $15.495 an ounce."
  • "The February U.S. employment report from the Labor Department showed the key non-farm payrolls component of the jobs report at up 242,000. The number was expected to show a rise of around 200,000. This report falls into the camp of the monetary policy hawks who favor the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again, and sooner rather than later. The jobs report did give the U.S. dollar index a modest lift."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.05 19:11

Weekly Fundamentals (adapted from the article)

GBPUSD - "The broader outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the BoE lags behind its U.S. counterpart, and the pair may continue to carve a long-term series of lower highs & lows as the threat of an EU exit dampens the fundamental outlook for the U.K".


USDJPY - "The Bank of Japan will look at market developments with great interest at its March 15 meeting, and much would need to change between now and then to make fresh BoJ policy action likely. It is nonetheless clear that much could change between now and then. Whether or not the Yen resumes its uptrend may very well depend on market reactions to the ECB and other key events in the week ahead."


AUDUSD - "Beijing pre-announced a lower GDP growth target, setting a range of 6.5 to 7 percent as the objective. Premier Li Keqiang likewise offered broad outlines of a broad range of initiatives. The most directly significant items for Australia seem to be efforts to cut over-capacity in coal and steel, both of which are central to the country’s China-oriented mining industry. Details on this and a host of other policy changes will be closely watched for their knock-on effects on Australian growth and, by extension, on RBA policy trends."


NZDUSD - "NZ 10yr Government Yields have declined from 3.617% in mid-December toward 2.901 this week. Given the data, it will be worth watching a move higher in yields that could signal a move of risk-on that may continue to lift up the NZD alongside an increasingly confident and stable RBNZ."


XAUUSD - "The simple removal of a bit of that emergency policy created risk aversion around the world that brought on questions of a globalized-coordinated recession. Sure, stock prices are still elevated, but how confident should one feel being invested in equities right now? Bond yields are pitifully low after six years of ZIRP, and any duration taken on will get absolutely crushed in a rising rate environment. And most Central Banks are actively looking to deflect capital flows. So where is an investor to go."


All the charts were made by using Metatrader 5 with free indicators from CodeBase.


 

GOLD Weekly Technicals - ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA for reversal

Weekly price is on primary bearish market condition with the ranging within 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA area:

  • Bear market rally was started in the beginning of the January this year - price broke 100 period SMA together with key resistance levels.
  • Fibo resistance level at 1279.71 was tested the rice to above for the market rally to be continuing.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was formed the price to be broken to above for the local uptrend as the bear market rally.

If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1279.71 so we may see the local uptrend as the secondary market rally within the primary bearish market condition.
If the price breaks Fibo support level at 1061.28 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1279.71 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1061.28 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish


ResistanceSupport
1279.711163.50
N/A1061.28

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : bear market rally  
 

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

XAU/USD: possible correction. Intra-day H4 price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing 1,259.39 support level to below for the secondary correction to be started. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the secondary correction to be started, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the local downtrend to be started within the primary bullish condition.


  • if the price breaks 1,279.71 resistance so the bullish condition will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1,259.39 support level so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish condition will be started;
  • if the price breaks 1,224.68 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
1,279.711,259.39
N/A
1,224.68
 

GOLD (XAU/USD): End Of Week Technicals - Ranging Bullish

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area for the bullish market condition with the ranging within key support/resistance levels:

  • The price is ranging within Fibo resistance level at 1,283.35 and 23.6% Fibo support level at 1,227.30.
  • Key support level for the bearish reversal is 61.8% Fibo support level at 1,137.00.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 23.6% Fibo support level at 1,227.30 so the secondary correction will be started.
If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1,283.35 to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1,283.35 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,227.30 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish


Resistance
 Support
1,283.351,227.30
N/A1,137.00

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.13 11:40

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, GBP/USD, USDJPY, and GOLD (based on the article)

US Dollar - "The Dollar has dropped ahead of the important meeting deflating some of the hawkish premium, but there is still considerable bullish interest behind the currency considering it a mild pace would still be a severe contrast to its counterparts. Furthermore, we have seen a shift in how the market responds to further drive to the dovish extreme of the policy spectrum. The BoJ adopted negative rates and saw the markets flip against the traditional ‘dovish move equates to bullish capital market, bearish currency’ equation within 24 hours. The ECB’s stimulus bomb this past week broke the function instantly. The market response will likely be a settling of confused speculative interpretations."


GBP/USD - "For the British Pound the big-picture trend remains fairly clear—the GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen in 14 out of the past 19 months. The biggest risk remains a British exit (“Brexit”) from the European Union and the uncertainty it represents. Until there is clarity on that front we do not expect a material GBP recovery."


USD/JPY - "The strong JPY year-to-day is likely to have companies expanding more slowly as their goods have become more expensive by nearly 5% on a global scale to where they were at the end of 2015, and at the same time, demand from Asian countries may continue to drop on tightened lending conditions."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold looks to be marking a weekly doji after stretching into a fresh yearly high of 1284. Heading into the FOMC next week, the long-side is vulnerable for a pullback but the broader trade remains constructive while above slope support extending off the July low. Key near-term topside resistance objectives stand at the 2015 high-week close at 1239 backed by the 2014 high-week reversal close at 1334. A break sub-1151/55 would be needed to reassert the broader short-trend in bullion."



 

GOLD (XAU/USD) Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bullish ranging near bearish reversal

M5 price is near and above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the ranging bullish condition to be started.

  • If the price will break 1234.28 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1230.52 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1234.281230.52
1235.40
1229.57


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1230.52 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1234.28 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction
 

Just looking at the situation with GOLD (XAU/USD) concerning FOMC Federal Funds Rate news event and FOMC Press Conference:

if we look at M5 chart so we can see the price was moved a lot:


but in case of H4 chart - the price is still on ranging bullish market condition. The situastion will be changed from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish in case of the price to break 1283.35 resistance level to above:


And the technical situation for daily timeframe was not changed so much as well: the price is still in ranging within 1283.35 resistance and 1225.60 support so if the price breaks 1283.35 resistance to above on close daily bar so we can say about the primary bullish trend to be continuing with good investing possibilities to gold etc:


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