Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging between the following s/r lines:
Span line is below the price for the ranging condition to be continuing.
D1 price - ranging bearish:
is on bearish market condition with 1077.19 support level for descending triangle pattern to be crossed for the bearish trend to be continuing.
is on bearish with 1077.19 as the nearest support level for this timeframe.If D1 price will break 1077.19
support level on close D1 bar so we may see good bearish breakdown of the price movement.If D1 price will break 1126.67 resistance level so the price will be on local uptrend as the secondary market rally up to 1164.81 as the next level in this case.If D1 price will break 1164.81 resistance level so the price will be reversed to the primary bullish market condition.If not so the price will be on ranging between the levels.
SUMMARY : bearish
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.17 19:22
5 reasons to believe gold prices could recover to $1,200 at year-end - HSBC (based on cnbc article)
The bank made a forecast for the price of gold at year-end and
estimated that it will be increase as much as 10 percent higher than
current levels. The bank set out five reasons in a report on Friday for the experts to believe
gold prices could recover to $1,200 per ounce at the year-end.
1. Fed tightening is already priced into gold"With
a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy
having been anticipated in the financial markets since as early as 2013,
some of the declines based on a rate rise have already occurred." Thus,
the reaction of the gold may not be negative one in any case.
2. Actual Fed hikes could see gold prices rise "This pattern has important ramifications for gold. History shows
that gold prices…generally rise, though sometimes with a lag, after the
first rate hike."
3. There's scope for a short-covering rallyShort positions on the Comex touched the peak on July 7 while long
positions are at their highest since December 2009.
4. Low prices will, ultimately, spur demand"In important gold consuming nations, such as China, India,
Indonesia, and Vietnam, as well as other EMs, consumers may have fewer
tools at their disposal with which to protect savings and household
wealth against rising prices or low or negative real interest rates."
5. Central bank buying will remain supportive "The PBoC is an important central bank with
significant influence. The mere fact that they have accumulated gold may
lead other EM central banks to examine purchasing bullion. Also many central banks hold quite low levels of
gold reserves in relation to their forex holdings, leaving room for
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 10:21
FOMC Meeting Minutes expectations by Barclays and September Fed hike (based on efxnews article)
Barclays made a forecast for high impacted fundamental news events
which will be on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The bank is telling that
Federal Open Market Committee is already made a decision concerning a September
Fed hike. Besides, Barclays is expecting the USD dollar to gain strength because "fears around China and weak commodity prices should keep pushing
investors out of risky assets":
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 20:21
BNP Paribas: 2 Things To Look For At FOMC Minutes (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.19 06:54
Chair Yellen is not speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this year:
Gold (XAU/USD), M5 timeframe, 6 minutes before USD - CPI news event:
This is half an hour after USD CPI news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.20 08:34
Time To Turn Bullish On EUR - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
EUR will be on bullish, and the main reason for CS to decide it is the
still-high risk that the ECB may have to re-enter the
easing fray down the line:
"For example, as Exhibit 2 shows, European inflation breakevens have
also been falling recently. With the ECB's credibility is on the line as
it proceeds with its QE program, it is hard to imagine it standing pat
for long and allowing sustained EUR strength to provide a fresh reason
for these indicators to push still lower."
By the way - EUR/USD was already turned to bullish in intra-day basis:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.21 06:54
Gold Climbs to Six-And-A-Half-Week High (based on wsj article)
"An unexpected rally in gold prices that was sparked by yuan’s
devaluation last week gathered pace, propelling the precious metal to a
six-and-a-half week-high on Friday. Gold breached the near-term
resistance level of $1,150 per troy ounce, showing the price rally has
taken a firmer hold of markets than was being earlier anticipated. Spot
gold rose 1.25% from the opening price to an intra-day high of
$1,168.32/oz, the highest level since July 3. It is currently trading at
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.22 09:53
Forex Weekly Outlook August 24-28 (based on forexcrunch article)
The US dollar suffered in a week that saw doom and gloom in
global markets. Will this continue? German Ifo Business Climate, US CB
Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders and GDP data from the US
and the UK are the main highlights in Forex calendar. Join us as we
explore the market-movers for this week.
The Federal Reserve released its July meeting minutes,
revealing a dispute over the rate hike timing. Despite clear signals
from some Fed officials calling for a rate rise in September, many
policy makers still believe such a move is premature. In her capacity as
the chair and the leader, Janet Yellen will be the driving force behind
September’s decision. Will we see a rate hike in September? The chances
look more slim with growing worries about China and fresh political uncertainty about Greece.
The euro is clearly positioned as a safe haven currency and enjoys the
crisis, alongside the yen. Dollar longs are on the other end.