Would you agree that forex is all about probability? - page 2

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Tonny Obare:
Take for example the moving average cross strategy. When MA1 crosses MA2 upwards you buy and when MA1 crosses MA2 downwards you sell but then its never 100% winner. So wouldn't it be correct to say that the trader buys because when MA1 crosses MA2 upwards there is high probability that the price would go up and on selling its because it is believed there is high probability that the price would go down if MA1 crosses MA2 downwards?
Basically all forex indicators seem to be about probability because none is 100% correct but we follow them because of the higher probability of them being correct than not being correct and its this higher probability of being correct that one would expect a win in forex.
 

Yes it's probability.. it depends on trend market

but since market moved by people/trader, so we can not 100% predict the direction.

 
Maybe we don't have to..
 
Widy Prasetyo:

Yes it's probability.. it depends on trend market

but since market moved by people/trader, so we can not 100% predict the direction.

We can not predict nothing for 100% at all, so will you say that our life, daily actions are also all about probability.

We always can see what is happening around and have a decision which can have a better realization.

The market is managed by the interests of some...   for others (most of participants/crowd) it is a probability only.   

 
Alain Verleyen:
I answered yes. But I think you should include statistics.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."     - Mark Twain

Best of luck,

 
Yeap. Everything in this world is about probability.

When we are crossing the road, we are still taking the risk of getting hit by vehicle.

We look left and right to increase the probability of not getting hit by vehicle.

However, some people have really awful luck. They'd look left and right and yet get killed by falling meteorite.
 
Amit Goyal:
Yeap. Everything in this world is about probability.

When we are crossing the road, we are still taking the risk of getting hit by vehicle.

We look left and right to increase the probability of not getting hit by vehicle.

However, some people have really awful luck. They'd look left and right and yet get killed by falling meteorite.
Lol
 
You know that in some countries you have to look first to right side and then to the left before crossing the street 😉 
Similar situations apply to forex, you have to know a lot before you can judge the validity of any probability measures. For my understanding one key to success is the recognition that you need different probability  measures for different segments of a time series. And it is quite difficult to recognize these segments. 
 
If compared with the crossing the street,,,, in my city, I have to be more extra careful.
After looking left & right, we also have to be careful with the motorcycle. sometimes it doesn't seen yet but we can heard the engine voice, so that makes us have to stop on the middle way and convince ourselves that the bikers have seen us crosing street and he will stop.

Same with forex, before we make order/open position, we have to look at the probability of the trend going, and how the conditions of the price against Resistance-Support.

After OP, we also must be able to take decision, whether we will close the order as soon as possible when the price moves against the trend turns (before hit SL),, or let it hit TP and make nice profit.
 
It is partially that, but not all.  It can also sometimes be attributed to certain ways people feel when they trade, which has no basis in anything measurable from 1 second to the next.  That is my 2 cents worth anyway.
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