EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 31.05 - 07.06: real situation for primary global reversal of the price movement to final bearish market condition - page 2
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.03 06:55
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Resistance Now Above 1.12 (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro advanced against the US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.1202, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1.1320. Alternatively, a reversal below the 1.1005-1.1055 area (horizontal pivot, 23.6% Fib) clears the way for a test of the May 27 low at 1.0818.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.03 12:43
Goldman Sachs - Get Ready For The Next Leg Lower In EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)
"Conviction levels that the Euro can resume its downtrend are as low as we can remember. Most see the single currency in a range near current levels, with the current account surplus, the rise in oil prices and valuation preventing another meaningful leg lower. We do not think it is these things that are at play; in fact, we disagree with each of them on a conceptual level."
The current account: "exchange rates, like other market prices, are forward looking. They reflect expectations for the future, including the likely level of the current account. The mere presence of a current account surplus (or deficit) therefore does not mean that a currency strengthens (or weakens), because this is already in the price. Instead, what matters is the delta, i.e. whether the current account comes in stronger or weaker than expected... The net effect, in delta terms, looks unclear to us – our European team forecast a stable current account surplus through 2015/16 – and likely EUR/$ neutral."
The rise in oil prices: "core inflation in the Euro area was trending down long before the drop in oil prices, a reflection of structural reforms on the periphery (that aim to improve competitiveness through internal devaluation) and large output gaps. Core HICP is likely to stay near current levels in coming months, even as headline inflation rebounds further, and this is likely to see the ECB shift its focus back to core (away from headline). This should see EUR/$ weaken."
Valuation: "the Euro is now arguably cheap on some metrics. Indeed, GSDEER says that fair value for EUR/$ is 1.22, so that we are currently in “cheap” territory for the first time in many years. In our minds, fair value only matters if it acts as an attractor, i.e. if it means that it exerts a force of gravity when EUR/$ undershoots it. There is no empirical evidence that this is the case. In fact, the only thing that is clear about fair value models is that exchange rates in practice over- or undershoot them, but never converge to them. We again see this discussion as a sideshow for EUR/$."Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.03 14:43
2015-06-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. April imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports."
"The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $9.3 billion to $60.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $19.8 billion."
EURUSD M5: 44 pips range price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.04 07:00
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 1.13 Figure (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro rebounded against the US Dollar as expected having produced a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1320 exposes the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 opens the door for a challenge of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.04 12:54
GBP and EUR gain while USD suffers as bond rout continues
GBPUSD has just broken 1.5400 to a 1.5415 high and EURUSD sprints to 1.1375 as USDJPY tumbles below 124.00 to 123.78
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.04 18:46
Greece And EUR/USD: Solving Problems Nobody Knew About Is Better Than Not Having Problems (based on seekingalpha article)
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.05 05:24
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rebound Capped Above 1.13 (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro paused to digest gains having reversed upward as expected against the US Dollar following two days of aggressive gains. Near-term resistance is at 1.1320, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 clears the way for a test of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.05 14:37
2015-06-05 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline."
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EURUSD M5: 179 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event