AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 24.05 - 31.05: bearish reversal breakdown with 0.7532 key support and 0.8162 key resistance - page 2
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 15:09
2015-05-28 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.
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"In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 282,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 274,000 to 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 271,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 266,250 to 266,500."
"The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ratewas 1.7 percent for the week ending May 16, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemploymentduring the week ending May 16 was 2,222,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 2,211,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,221,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 2,229,750. This is the lowest level for this average since November 25, 2000 when it was 2,211,250."==========
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AUDUSD, M5, 2015.05.28
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
AUDUSD M5: 25 pips range price movement by USD - Unemployment Claims news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 06:58
Appraising AUDUSD, USDJPY Breakouts with Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Is USDJPY's massive breakout destined to extend its run or will it suffer the same fate as AUDUSD which saw its 0.79 breakout stall almost immediately? While many concern themselves only with the 'break' part of breakout scenarios, it is the follow through that determines whether there is a significant trading opportunity at hand. For AUDUSD, the 0.7900 break was a remarkable technical break from a period of extended consolidation; but its effort to generate traction contradicted the impact of an RBA rate cut. Further, monetary policy divergence between the Aussie and US Dollars provided a serious headwind to follow through. What does the fundamental backdrop look like for USDJPY moving forward? We discuss that in today's Strategy Video.
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.29 10:37
Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
A marked downward revision in the preliminary 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may drag on the greenback and spur a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve looks to carry its zero-interest rate policy into the second-half of 2015.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the Fed pledges to look past the economic weakness drive by transitory factors, a larger-than-expected contraction in the growth rate may spur a further delay in the central bank’s normalization cycle as it undermines expectations for a stronger recovery.
Nevertheless, increased business outputs paired with the expansion in private-sector credit may offer a better-than-expected GDP print, and prospects for a stronger recovery may spur a bullish reaction in the dollar as the Fed remains on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: Growth Rate Contracts 0.9% or Greater
- Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
- If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bullish USD Trade: 1Q GDP Report Exceeds Market Forecast- Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD Daily
4Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
EURUSD M5: 19 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:
Even though the preliminary 4Q U.S. GDP print was revised down to an annualized 2.2% from an initial forecast of 2.6%, the print still managed to exceed market expectations for a 2.0% rate of growth. At the same time, Personal Consumption was also revised down to 4.2% from 4.3%, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) remained unchanged at 1.1% during the same period. The better-than-expected GDP reading may keep the Fed on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery in the year ahead. The greenback strengthened following the report, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.1200 handle to end the North American session at 1.1189.
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AUDUSD, M5, 2015.05.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
AUDUSD M5: 20 pips rangeprice movement by USD - GDP news event